2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

zambonir 2019-01-04 05:53:22 UTC #81

Nothing against Eickhoff but that would mean someone (Pivetta) really failed to hit his potential and someone else (Arrieta) got hurt or fell off a cliff. I'll take him as a #4 or 5 though.

I still reckon a couple of starters will end up getting traded for the likes of Ray or Minor or even Greinke. But maybe it waits until the deadline. Or Keuchel comes cheap, or you get Gio on a one-year deal.

LoneStarPhan 2019-01-04 06:00:58 UTC #82

I will not be surprised to see both Pivetta and Eickhoff join Nola as the top 3 starters this coming season. I also hope to see continued improvement from Eflin and Velasquez as well. It would be nice if they could add a LH starter to the mix as well. Arrieta will get his starts.

There will certainly be injuries to the starters, so all will get their shot this year. There will likely also be a few starts going to several pitchers from the farm system as well.

EDmuch 2019-01-04 16:08:09 UTC #83

Seems to be a lot of talk on the internet that Harper really wants to return to Nats. If he does, the Nats will really be loaded both on offense and on the mound.

bigegypt0417 2019-01-04 16:19:09 UTC #84

Seems to me the market for Harper isn't as big as he thought it would be...I also believe this is all being orchestrated by Boras...he loves to share misinformation to get teams and negotiations moving.

bkeich 2019-01-04 16:56:20 UTC #85

The market for Harper really is waiting for Machado to sign IMHO. All the teams that lost out on Machado that thought they were going to spend that money will drive Harper's price way, way up, maybe even past Machado. Harper would be a fool to make anything known about his intentions yet, and I am sure Boras will make sure that doesnt happen (misinformation and silliness aside).

tom81 2019-01-04 18:46:03 UTC #86

Maybe bkeich but the dynamic might be different. It's possible that only one team is willing to spend "stupid money" on one of Harper or Machado and that that team can play one again the other.

Say they have made Machado a 10 year $350 million offer which he hasn't taken taken while he hopes the Yankees gets close to that offer. The Phillies meet with Harper next week and tell him he can have that deal today if he takes it. Perhaps he realizes that the market is soft and he takes that offer thinking it will be the best one out there?

fish 2019-01-04 18:57:50 UTC #87

How much more money can Washington defer without screwing themselves in the future? I assume that's how they get a deal done with Harper, but they already have a ton of money spread out. I guess that is some kind of management of the annual avg salary even though that doesn't get deferred.

andyb 2019-01-04 19:32:31 UTC #88

The Harper meeting was with Ted Lerner the owner and not just the son that is actively running the team. There is an element of a billionaire who is 90+ that just wants to win here. It is not an efficient strategy, but neither were some of the Yankee championships.

I don't think they will beat every offer, but I could see them going to 10/350 and asking Harper whether an extra $25 million really makes much of a difference.

California_Dreamin 2019-01-04 19:34:33 UTC #89

fish, you are correct. I believe I read were they are already at $192 million and the luxury tax starts at $206. Not to mention they have Rendon coming up for negotiation next year and he is also represented by Boras. I have to believe much of the money being offered by the Nats to Harper would be deferred.

Seems to me that perhaps the best negotiation tool the Phils could use is to offer MM and Harper the same deal, say 10/350 with a couple of out clauses after maybe 4 and 7 years, and remind them that if/when one of them accepts the offer there will no longer be any team with "stupid money" to throw around.

Sure either player could still go to the Dodgers or Yankees but both teams are opportunistic shoppers [ a wonderful term used by a poster on another site] and will not spend 1 dollar more than they deem fit. This might just crash the market for the player left without a chair after the musical chairs game ends. Unless the White Sox want to pass out "somewhat stupid money."

tom81 2019-01-04 20:32:57 UTC #90

According to Rosenthal, Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, is barely engaging clubs at the moment, seemingly taking his time and waiting for a team to jump, according to team executives involved in the negotiations.

It seems probable given this that the Phillies would offer Harper the same contract as Machado to secure at lease one of the two as the both would be big upgrades and fan draws.

allentown 2019-01-04 21:42:17 UTC #91

I think the slow market for Machado/Harper is a result of their agents preferring to move very slowly in hopes of extracting the super-best offer. If they had their druthers, they'd wait until the suitors' alternate lesser Plan Bs and Plan Cs have been signed by other teams. Then the suitors get to choose between their client and basically replacement level with zero PR/ticket-selling value. It's a game of chicken: will they succeed in forcing the other FAs to take what offers are on the table for them. As we saw last year, it is a serious danger for one of the second- or third-tier talents to try hang in there too close to ST. Eventually, their value will fall. Machado and Harper always have the fall-back of signing an extremely lucrative one or two year deal and trying again. I also suspect that both Boras and Lozado are playing chicken with each other, thinking their position improves once the other signs. That holds until the serious suitors start to grab up the best Plan B guys. Btw, I think what Lazado is doing makes sense, as the conventional wisdom has been that Boras will make sure Harper signs second. Not a game Lozado can happily concede.

California_Dreamin 2019-01-04 22:16:41 UTC #92

allentown...maybe your theory is correct but a case can be made that is one of those rare occasions where its possible the FIRST guy who signs will get the most money because most in the industry believe its the Phillies who have the most money to spend and if/when they are out the market collapses.

Seems to me it behooves Boras and Lozano to try and get as much as they can from the Phillies...and then sign as quickly as they can. Few believe the White Sox are going to go all "stupid money" crazy and reports are that their offer to MM s about $200 million. I have to believe A] the Yankees won't top that amount and B] the Phillies will.

As for Harper, his market is a bit unclear but Jim Peyton at PhuturePhillies indicated he was told early on that the Phils offered 9/360 right off the bat to Harper in order to get this over with and Boras wanted Harper to take it but Harper insisted on instead "making the Dodgers happen" at which time the Phils took the offer off the table since they realized they were bidding against themselves.

My guess is Boras is trying to get that offer back on the table by planting the rumor to Bowden that the Nats have gone higher than 10/300, which may or may not be true [Lerner will never say, it is in his and Boras's best interest to look like the Nats are still in it!]

As someone who does not believe the Phils will attempt to sign both players [have to keep some powder dry for Trout] it sure seems like if the Phils are not in the bidding the market collapses. Boras and Lozano would never publicly say this but it sure seems to ring true.

Florida_Sunshine 2019-01-04 23:08:31 UTC #93

I do not think moving slowly extracts the best offer. It certainly may in the beginning but history shows us the longer it drags out, the less options are left for the player also. I seem to recall Boras has been fired and/or criticized for this tactic. My reasoning is that time takes other options off the table. One might think this means owners and teams are forced into paying more but I think the opposite is true. Teams have budgets and there are other options out there. Are they as attractive as a Machado or Harper? No, but an astute owner will not let themselves get left out of the dance. They will make sure they find a dance partner.

I am sure that some of the owners have already made substantial offers and received no response. At which time, an astute negotiator would bring it to a head and ask what it was going to take. This now puts the pressure on the players agent to assess his position. If the number is crazy, team can make their decision. If the team can meet the number, we might have a deal. But a non answer tells the team to likely move on. This takes leverage away from the players agent. It is an interesting game to play.

tom81 2019-01-05 12:12:21 UTC #94

phillychuck 2019-01-05 13:35:32 UTC #95

Paredes seems to be a 6'0" AAAA loogy who has been effective in short stints over the last 4 years or so, both in AAA and in the majors (for the Dodgers). He throws about 70% sliders and sits around 90 mph with his fastball. He also has a "show me" change-up. He has had some control issues in his career at all levels, but in his short stint in the big leagues his control has been fine. He's always been a high K/IP pitcher; misses lots of bats. Was very effective vs. lefties last season, but not as much in 2017. All this based on a small MLB sample size.

Austinfan 2019-01-05 17:21:07 UTC #96

Paredes sounds like they want to mix a couple veterans with the kids in the Lehigh pen. Nothing more.

Phillies are supposedly up to $142M. One reason for those short-term deals is to be able to free up money as young RPs kick some veterans off the island the next couple years. But it shows how fast that money can disappear once you fill out the roster with FAs. Add Nola's extension in a year and Trout in 2 years and we're finished shopping for most of the decade.

EDmuch 2019-01-06 14:49:37 UTC #97

Britton to the Yankees.

julio 2019-01-06 15:05:22 UTC #98

Yeah - as mentioned in the "non-Phillies discussion" thread about 13 hours ago... This guy who was a Yankee in 2018 re-signed with the Yankees.

zambonir 2019-01-06 15:33:02 UTC #99

Ed was really hoping we were still interested in him and therefore the fact that he signed with a team other than the Phillies is still Phillies news as well. Unless we limit non-Phillies thread to things that don't affect or are of interest to the Phillies in any way, it's hard to avoid drift.

Meanwhile here's two responses in, respectively, the Non-Phillies thread and the David Robertson thread that probably can't help but lead to broader discussions about the Phillies, or about the roster and payroll and bullpen beyond just Robertson, that would belong in this thread.

I'm happy with the way the Phillies went on all counts Britton deal is basically Boras recreating Arrieta deal. Will still be interesting to see how it goes with Keuchel because it sounds like the Phillies' position is that Keuchel is the only true rotation upgrade out there, but they only want him on a short deal. Anyone else they don't really want at all. Go with the deep bullpen and deep bottom of the rotation until July (which, truth be told, actually worked last year, not upgrading at the deadline is what didn't).

julio 2019-01-06 20:09:33 UTC #100

Yeah, I understand that. I do think it would be a good idea for one to have read both threads in a case like this, before posting something as "news," though...if for no other reason that, in an off-season such as this one, pretty much every free agent of note, or player rumored to be available in trade, has been mentioned in a Phillies context by somebody. Either that, or dispense with the idea that there is "non-Phillies" news to discuss.