2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[Patchmk88]

Here is the problem AF, I’d love to build a team like the Astros too, but we failed in our minor league scouting and drafting, the Astros did not. We don’t have a Springer, Correa, Bergman, Altuve, or Fisher in our system. Our big prize is Rhys Hoskins. He’s probably be the 5th best player on the Astros. Since we have failed in our player development and scouting, out minor leagues have produced players that you can fill out a team with but not ones you can build a team with. The Phillies have been bad for the most part of the past decade. Meanwhile the other teams in Philadelphia are going to playoffs and winning Super Bowls. If the Phillies do not want to lose fans for good and risk becoming a cash strapped team because they can’t sell tickets, they have to get a superstar or two to fit their complimentary pieces around. We have the money to do so, and the benefit will be excitement around the Phillies again. Yes the risk is that even with those players we aren’t good enough, but the risk you take in not signing one and energizing the fan base is much bigger.

[zambonir]

I would have liked to do what Houston did as well, but they didn't do it. The players didn't develop.

There is middle ground here. It's not a choice between build entirely from within except for "icing" and "replace everybody to win now." They signed four veteran free agents last year and have already acquired two position players (one FA, one trade) and several relievers, and they're not done. Building a team entirely through free agency is not sustainable but neither is building a team entirely homegrown. And sure, either way, you can fail, just ask the Nats or the Mariners or yes, the Angels.

But, pointless to get too worked up about this as the debate has already been settled. The Phillies want to sign Machado or Harper, and if they don't, they aren't going to sit on their hands, wallet, or minor league depth. They have always said they wanted to be on the same timetable as the Cubs or Astros were, and that means this is the year a playoff berth (if not a World Series) is the benchmark. That they are not ahead of schedule (as those other teams wound up being) is largely not Klentak's fault, none of the young players besides Hoskins who still looked like the future in 2016 have turned into anything yet.

(That he hasn't drafted great, and also waited too long to overhaul the entire operation, is a separate issue, and real source of frustration. Because sure, there could easily be a two-year learning curve on changing your development staff, implementing analytics and using shifts for the first time. But that should have started when the team was still only expecting to win 70 games.)

[allentown]

think it's a fool's errand to build through free agency, WARs are too expensive that way to afford more than a couple big contracts. So best to save your ammunition for when and where it can have the biggest impact.

If you have the farm resources to pull it off, that certainly is the preferred approach. That's what the Phillies did in 2008. Unfortunately, I don't see the equivalents of home-grown Utley, Ruiz, Howard, Rollins nor the lucky/(plus scouting?) snaring of a Victorino and Werth for free. We just don't have that level of position player talent in our system today. Bohm may reach that level in a couple years and Garcia in 5 years. Beyond that? Haseley and Ortiz may well be MLB starters, but are they likely to be above average starters? Even average? Kingery might well grow into an average 2B, but no guarantee, based on a disappointing 2018. I don't see a star. We need a star. The 2008 team had home-grown stars before they added FA/trade talent. We are not sitting in 2007 Phillies-land today. We are awash in $ and salary-cap space. This really was the ideal off-season to use cash to buy a star.

[zambonir]

every Major League team can afford to sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado to a contract of 10 years or more, and every Major League team would be made better by doing so.

Your Favorite Baseball Team Can Afford Any Free Agent It Wants

[nycphils]

There is an outside shot the farm could deliver, but it would take a heck of a lot coming together to make a championship caliber team - for example:

Quinn gets and stays healthy and turns into Jose Altuve with speed

Bohm ends up as Kris Bryant

Two or three of Medina, Sixto, JoJo, Pivetta, Eflin, Howard become high end starters (i.e. 2nd/3rd starter types or better)

Luis Garcia speeds through the system and ends up as a .800 OPS with excellent defense (Andrelton Simmons or better)

Seranthony, de los Santos, Ramos, Rios, etc. form a really good bullpen

Hoskins becomes Goldschmidt instead of Carlos Santana at 1B

Haseley turning into Markakis or better

That’s a lot to go right. Not sure I want to bet on all that happening.

[VoteForKalas]

To me, spending money or not spending money has not been the recent Phillies problem.

Sure, it was back in the day before CBP opening, the Comcast deal and other moves the Phillies have made to convert into a big market organization.

That has all changed due to those moves. They now have plenty of money to spend and the willingness to spend it.

The remaining issue from those old days is their inability to evaluate talent effectively and the internal organizational rigor to call things as they truly are instead of what they want to believe (or want the fan base to believe) it is.

We have piles of evidence of failed draft picks, bad free agent signings, poor trades etc. from several regimes including this current one. This has not changed and, until it does and they have the resources to do it consistently, we will be stuck.

That is where Middleton et al. need to invest: get the best talent evaluators available and do not rest until you have them in the Phillies organization - spare no expense. Their value will provide great benefits to the organization and make Middleton more money than he will ever need to spend.

[Austinfan]

Yep. It's not that you shouldn't sign Machado and Harper (and I'm convinced the Phillies will end up making the highest offer), it's that it's a hard sell for them to be stuck here for 10 years for a few million more when they're going to walk away with $200M or so after taxes. And giving an opt out when they can't make this team seriously competitive by themselves is a waste of time, we're not a 90 win team looking to get over the top the next few years.

In the end, it's really not a big deal if they sign or don't sign, you can always recover a couple WAR of the 5 or so you miss out on through second tier signings.Going from 80-83 wins isn't going to keep the fans excited by July. Fixing the organization, top to bottom, is the only thing that will make this franchise seriously competitive.

[zambonir]

Yep. It's not that you shouldn't sign Machado and Harper (and I'm convinced the Phillies will end up making the highest offer), it's that it's a hard sell for them to be stuck here for 10 years for a few million more when they're going to walk away with $200M or so after taxes. And giving an opt out when they can't make this team seriously competitive by themselves is a waste of time, we're not a 90 win team looking to get over the top the next few years.

Your argument is based on the premise that players routinely take less money to play for a good team, or in a favorable location. But that's almost never actually the case.

The 10 biggest FA contracts in MLB history

A-Rod - took the money, signed with the last-place Rangers
(technically that is the second-biggest contract, his re-signing with the Yankees after opting out is #1).

Pujols - took Anaheim's money over the Cubs, Cardinals (and supposedly the Marlins)

Cano - took Seattle's money

Price - signed the largest-ever pitching contract at the time, no discount because the Red Sox are so storied.

Fielder - left Milwaukee for Detroit, they were a good team and he had ties to the market but there was no discount, Tigers out-bid Texas and DC

Scherzer - Nats also a good team but it was an exorbitant contract

Greinke - ditched LA for a team that hadn't made the playoffs in five years. Why? The money.

Jason Heyward - nobody offered him more money than the Cubs, including the Cardinals.

Texeira - pretty sure the Yankees still had to outbid everyone (and gave him 8 years)

Now, in theory anyone who gave a discount doesn't end up on a Top 10 list but I'm not sure those players actually exist, except when re-signing with their previous team.

So long as the Phillies' offer is truly the highest, in a tangible way, they are going to get one of these guys. If NY or LA is right there with them, then no, probably not.

[California_Dreamin]

Ay yi yi, AF, you write the strangest things! I don't doubt for a minute your knowledge [and I think I speak for all of us on this site] but for you to say in the end its no big deal if the Phils sign MM or Harper is just plain false. Because it does matter. Its called credibility industry wide and the Phils have been lacking this really since Howard collapsed on his way to first base in October 2011.

At some point the Phils need to reclaim the title Boras game them in 2010 when he insisted the Phillies could re-sign Werth if they wanted to because they were a team and financial "Goliath." I remember that day well and it was a reason that Halladay wanted to come to Philadelphia and Lee wanted to come back.

Not to mention, it might just be a reason Trout may want to come in 2021. Look, for all your justification about the long, slow drawn out processes of building a team from within I know this much. Maybe just once or twice a century does it occur where 1 team can A] possibly sign a 26 year old future Hall of Famer while knowing that B] in 2 years they may be primed to sign the best player in baseball, a guy even BETTER than the 26 year old future HOFer.

I mean, for us long time baseball fans it might be like the Phillies having the chance to sign one of a 26 year old Mays, Aaron or Banks while knowing in 2 years Mickey Mantle may well want to play in Philadelphia. Goodness gracious!

If during that time someone advocated for instead waiting on Tony Curry, Ruben Amaro, Bobby Wine and Pancho Herrera, that phan would said to have lots of hope in their hearts and rocks in their brain. No offense intended, my friend.

[donaldorc]

If during that time someone advocated for instead waiting on Tony Curry, Ruben Amaro, Bobby Wine and Pancho Herrera, that phan would said to have lots of hope in their hearts and rocks in their brain. No offense intended, my friend.

Hahahahaha! I LOVED Pancho Herrera and thought he would be the Phillies’ savior. Man was I disappointed! (I’m a Spanish teacher, and loved any Latino player on the Phillies).

[California_Dreamin]

donaldorc...LOL, I love bringing up old, I mean really old, players, so much fun. I collected old, I mean really old, baseball cards and IIRC, Pancho Herrera and Tony Curry both made the Topps All Rookie teams in the early 60's, thats why I mentioned both of them.

Speaking of which...met a guy from Philadelphia yesterday on a trip to the Rose Parade and he SAW Ashburn and Roberts play and reminisced with me about the '64 Phillies and Gene Mauch. Said he used to watch Allen, Callison and Bunning on TV and went to Connie Mack Stadium many times.

[LoneStarPhan]

Gosh, I saw Ashburn and Roberts play.

[Florida_Sunshine]

CD, you had me until I realized Arneado is a FA after the 2019 season and will be available next year. So, as much as I would like the Phils to sign both Harper and Machado, we do not control that. Plus, I would prefer Arenado.

[David_Criss]

Arenado apparently was made available for an absolute mint this winter. The Rockies are smart to ask for a kings ransom even though he has made it clear he will not entertain a contract extension if traded. They will have one if not the top trade chip come July and can will get a good return then, too.

So if Machado or Harper do not don a Phillies hat at a press conference in the near future, there will be future options to greatly improve the team in the near future.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Everything I read says Arenado will test free agency.

I would prefer him over Machado.

[nycphils]

Why we’d be more likely to obtain Arenado next summer when there are two guys like that available now who are younger and only two or three teams willing to spend Big is beyond me.

[zambonir]

Certainly if the Phillies don't sign Machado - and especially if they whiff on Harper too - they will be in on Arenado. But he will be 30 at the start of the 2020 season, and he's a Boras client. I'd much rather have Machado until he's 36 - and now - than Arenado next year until he's 40.

[mdougherty12]

For the sake of accuracy, Arenado will turn 29 shortly after the start of the 2020 season .

[LoneStarPhan]

Also, if Arenado is traded this coming July, he cannot receive a QO next off season. Reportedly, he plans to enter free agency and will be one of the top targets next off season. Of course, I have no idea if he would welcome coming to Philadelphia for the right money. I don't like trading prospects that matter for a few months of any potential free agent unless the Phillies really are seriously a contender to win the World Series.

[bkox]

and IIRC, Pancho Herrera and Tony Curry both made the Topps All Rookie teams in the early 60's, thats why I mentioned both of them.

Herrera did not make the 1959 Topps team but did make the 1959 Sporting news team. Joe Koppe,did make the 1959 Topps team for the Phils