2017 Phillies Top Prospect Lists

andyb 2017-03-02 15:28:36 UTC #261

Stats only with Cozens at the top compared to the final list does suggest some sort of park adjustment.

The only thing I can think of that might explain Antequera is if there is a defensive component that is is based on a relatively small set of stats that is highly unreliable in projections. So if they are basically saying he is a gold glove quality shortstop (i.e. the best in GCL) that also hit in that league then they might produce a false SSS ranking. FWIW I think he is decent defensively but lacks the higher end defensive projection of a Gamboa. This is why he has basically been the "extra" middle infielder for 2 years behind better prospects who maybe did not hit quite as well.

Edit: A little more from Matt Winkelman on how Cozens does superficially well in this type of ranking. It does incorporate some scouting info and a crude defensive metric (which seems to explain Antequera).

allentown 2017-03-02 17:25:06 UTC #262

He still needs further development, especially against LHP and handling the low and away breaking pitch, but Cozens still 'could be' Ryan Howard redux with the bat, especially since HRs are becoming more common across baseball. Not saying I'm expecting him to match Howard in his prime in a comparative like OPS+, but he 'could' hit that many HRs. He has the power and even Freddy Galvis can hit 20 HRs today. He has better defensive value than Howard. Could he come close to Howard prime WAR in his own prime. He can be a major league starter a year younger than Howard was.

Austinfan 2017-03-02 20:41:59 UTC #263

Another issue, that Winkelman skips, is different teams have different developmental philosophies.
Phillies seem to stress skill development over performance, at least below AAA ball.
That is, they'll take pitches away from pitchers to force them to throw changeups, they'll change batting stances even if it takes a while to adjust.
I think this is more prevalent the last few years, as developing minor league players has taken precedence over "marketable" statistics.
This also impacts how fast you promote a player, which can skew some models, conservative philosophy will have older players putting up better performances on average since they're not rushed.

I think he's right that the best use of these models is as a screen to identify overlooked players worthy of a second glance - not to project performance.

Austinfan 2017-03-02 20:43:58 UTC #264

I don't know how credible it is, but an article in the Inqy today claimed Moniak has built himself up from 170 to 190 lbs over the offseason.
That sounds a bit much for one offseason, but as an 18 year old pick, he was a projection to 20-21 years old, and 190-200 is reasonable by that age.
Depends how that strength translates into both more pop at the plate and whether it impacts speed in the OF.
Something bearing watching the next couple years.

andyb 2017-03-13 19:54:08 UTC #265

And perhaps our final top 100 list from Fangraphs:

9 - Crawford
27 - Moniak
32 - Alfaro
That is it, including no more in the 30+ other prospects named that just missed the list. The author has always liked Moniak but it seems Alfaro's star is rising a bit with him too. Downside is that there seems to be a bigger gap after #3 in our system with guys like Williams, Sanchez and Kilome not really close to being top 100 at the moment. IMO Quinn could be our 4th guy now and might be seriously underrated. Other than Crawford who else has a really clear path to putting up a 4+ WAR year in the next few season?. Both Crawford and Quinn could do it with a 700 OPS season potentially.

LoneStarPhan 2017-03-13 21:39:05 UTC #266

While it's nice to see Phillies' prospects rated highly by the various experts, we have to take these lists with a shaker of salt. I always think Dominick Brown when I read these lists. I am very much looking forward to the coming season in the organization with hopes that many of the prospects have outstanding seasons.

zambonir 2017-03-13 23:57:06 UTC #267

Was Quinn ever on these lists and fell due to injuries, or was he always in the second tier?

andyb 2017-03-14 02:50:19 UTC #268

He has made a couple at the very end (like in the 90-100 range) but most discount his prospect status because of the injuries. I probably would not rank him that high for the same reasons, because it obviously decreases his chance of long term success. If he were completely healthy he would have been a top 50 prospect. Billy Hamilton with more power. Hamilton really did not play better in the minors than Quinn has. He just stayed healthier and moved more quickly.

Squire 2017-05-11 14:29:58 UTC #269

For the first time I can remember BA is updating their Top 100 prospect list mid-season but before the draft to reflect some promotions and early performance.

13 - Mickey Moniak

19 - J.P. Crawford

32 - Jorge Alfaro

61 - Sixto Sanchez

88 - Rhys Hoskins

Philsmania 2017-05-11 17:26:59 UTC #270

At one point, he was #99 on MLB.com's list, I think in 2015 right before the draft and before he pulled up lame later in the season.

Austinfan 2017-05-11 17:33:16 UTC #271

That seems about right, Williams and Cozens don't deserve to be on such a list (and didn't last year).
Kilome and Medina are on the cusp, Pivetta "graduated," otherwise he'd be a viable candidate, Pullin hasn't done it long enough but could make an end of the year list if he maintains a .900+ OPS.

Squire 2017-05-11 18:28:53 UTC #272

My take would be that given pedigree and performance, Scott Kingery would be the one that most likely just missed the cut.

andyb 2017-05-11 18:41:24 UTC #273

Seranthony might have a case too though I guess we need a little more data for a top 100 lists. I am not sure he projects better than Kilome, but I think it is pretty close. And his current performance is better. I like him better than Medina now. Close with Kilome who has more potential but might be better suited for the bullpen.