2017 Phillies Top Prospect Lists

[andyb]

Might as well start the new prospect topic. Baseball Prospectus is our first publication to weigh in. Most is behind the paywall:

baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=30685

1. SS J.P. Crawford
2. C Jorge Alfaro
3. OF Nick Williams
4. OF Mickey Moniak
5. RHP Franklyn Kilome
6. RHP Adonis Medina
7. RHP Sixto Sanchez
8. OF Roman Quinn
9. LF Cornelius Randolph
10. Choose Your Own Adventure: The Island of Klentak

No idea what they were doing with #10 though I assume they mention several players. For me Moniak should be higher (#2). Medina and maybe Williams should be a little lower. Medina does not miss enough bats at this point to be as high as 6th.

[phillychuck]

Might as well start the new prospect topic. Baseball Prospectus is our first publication to weigh in. Most is behind the paywall:

baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=30685

1. SS J.P. Crawford
2. C Jorge Alfaro
3. OF Nick Williams
4. OF Mickey Moniak
5. RHP Franklyn Kilome
6. RHP Adonis Medina
7. RHP Sixto Sanchez
8. OF Roman Quinn
9. LF Cornelius Randolph
10. Choose Your Own Adventure: The Island of Klentak

No idea what they were doing with #10 though I assume they mention several players. For me Moniak should be higher (#2). Medina and maybe Williams should be a little lower. Medina does not miss enough bats at this point to be as high as 6th.

For me Cozens has to be in the top 10 somewhere. Power is such a premium skill he'll get lots of chances. Also hard to ignore Lively's season and not rank him in this list.

A very tools-oriented take I think.

[Philsmania]

Here is the current MLB.com list. I don't know when they updated it. They are still bullish on Williams despite his dismal season, #3 Phillies prospect and #48 overall. They are also still relatively bullish on Appel (#10 Phillies prospect).

For the record, the top 10 is 1. Crawford, 2. Moniak, 3. Williams, 4. Alfaro, 5. Randolph, 6. Cozens, 7. Quinn, 8. Kilome, 9. Gowdy, 10. Appel.

The only top 100's are Crawford (#2), Moniak (#24), Williams (#48) and Alfaro (#58).

Thompson has been deemed graduated.

m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=phi

[andyb]

Matt Winkelman add some comments on the BP list:

philliesminorthoughts.com/bp-phi ... ies-lists/

The choose your own adventure for #10 prospects were Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery, Dylan Cozens, and Kevin Gowdy. They also added write-ups of Arquimedes Gamboa, Jhailyn Ortiz, and Jose Pujols. So that is roughly their top 16 though I guess they might have written up the last 3 based on ceiling rather than overall ranking. Gamboa admittedly intrigues me with the way he flashed tools and started to play much better ball right before he got hurt.

[andyb]

Here is the current MLB.com list. I don't know when they updated it. They are still bullish on Williams despite his dismal season, #3 Phillies prospect and #48 overall. They are also still relatively bullish on Appel (#10 Phillies prospect).

For the record, the top 10 is 1. Crawford, 2. Moniak, 3. Williams, 4. Alfaro, 5. Randolph, 6. Cozens, 7. Quinn, 8. Kilome, 9. Gowdy, 10. Appel.

The only top 100's are Crawford (#2), Moniak (#24), Williams (#48) and Alfaro (#58).

Thompson has been deemed graduated.

m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=phi

I don't think they really updated it other than adding new draftees and shuffling for tools and eligibility. A guy like Sixto Sanchez is still #30 for them which I am guessing is because they needed to add somebody after they removed someone for lack of eligibility. There is no way Sanchez is not top 15 and most lists should have him top 10.

[andyb]

Just a quick note that BA is publishing their Phillies list this week (listed as Wednesday on their site).

If I had to do a personal top 10 at the moment it would be:

1. Crawford
2. Moniak
3. Alfaro
4. Kilome
5. Williams
6. Quinn
7. Sanchez
8. Randolph
9. Cozens
10. Gowdy

Even with the addition of Moniak and Gowdy there is something about the list that feels a little less good than last year after the various graduations. Crawford looks more good than great compared to last year. Arguably one could say that a bunch of prospects (Quinn, Kilome, Alfaro, Medina) advanced a year but did not take huge steps forward even if they had decent years. Sanchez and Cozens on this list took those forward steps but still have major questions. And Williams took a step backwards.

[kmc1019]

Agree it "feels" a little less good than last year. We have depth but we lack high ceiling, high probability prospects. Check out the Cubs roster and you'll see lots of players who were in that category 3 years ago.

Crawford had a disappointing offensive year at AAA and really has to prove himself this coming year as a future star.

Moniak had a nice debut, but you really want to come out of having the #1 pick with a potential superstar - and this past draft just did not have that type of player.

Alfaro had a good year but the low OBP will limit his productivity in the bigs if and when he conquers AAA.

We have projectable pitchers but not at the higher levels.

Jury is out on whether we have a solid and deep farm system or one that is truly going to transform the franchise at the major league level. We all want that certainty that is simply not there at this point.

[bigegypt0417]

We have depth but we lack high ceiling, high probability prospects.

I think this is what I disagree with. I believe we have a bunch of guys with high ceilings...they mostly happen to have low floors at the same time.

[andyb]

It is starting to be prospect list season. Baseball HQ:

http://www.baseballhq.com/node/6027?org=PHI&year=2017

[julio]

Ben Badler tweet - heads up on the BA Phillies prospect list, due tomorrow (Wednesday).

Ben Badler (BenBadler)

[Squire]

BA Top 10 Out

1. J.P. Crawford, SS
2. Mickey Moniak, CF
3. Jorge Alfaro, C
4. Nick Williams, OF
5. Sixto Sanchez, RHP
6. Rhys Hoskins, 1B (surprised but pleased).
7. Franklyn Kilome, RHP
8. Roman Quinn, CF
9. Scott Kingery, 2B
10. Dylan Cozens, OF

[julio]

For those who aren't going to be happy with any of the published Top Prospects lists, Jim Peyton at Phuture Phillies has just inaugurated their annual Reader Top 30 list. The voting for Prospect #1 opened this morning.

Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #1

Vote early! Vote often?

[allentown]

BA Top 10 Out

J.P. Crawford, SS
Mickey Moniak, CF
Jorge Alfaro, C
Nick Williams, OF
Sixto Sanchez, RHP
Rhys Hoskins, 1B (surprised but pleased).
Franklyn Kilome, RHP
Roman Quinn, CF
Scott Kingery, 2B
Dylan Cozens, OF

A bit of a strange list. Both Hoskins and Kingery a few positions high for my taste. I like Cozens more than either of them. They also are more forgiving of Williams second half than I am. I put Williams at bottom of top 10. C. Randolph was hurt, so he makes my top 10. I'm going to optimistically put Ortiz at 11. Kingery gets 12. Gowdy at 13.

[andyb]

Surprised at Hoskins but really the back 5 is pretty close and a matter of opinion.

I am a little surprised that they downgrade Kilome. It is not like his stuff backed up at all and he was incredibly consistent throughout the year after his awful April. I know he was 3 years older than Sanchez and only 2 levels higher (and Sanchez might deserve a shot at Lakewood given his polish), but his projection is still much higher and it is coupled with very good performance. We sometimes fall in love too much with relatively polished pitchers at GCL. It is not like Sanchez does not have good stuff, but look what happened to Medina this year whose stuff is only a tick behind Sanchez.

Not saying Sanchez is too high. Just Kilome is probably too low.

[allentown]

The other thing with GCL pitchers is so many years to develop arm problems before they make it to Philly. That's why, despite talent, I can't put Gowdy higher than 13. The other concern with Sixto is stature. I think it limits ultimate velocity, ups injury risk, and gives him a body-control advantage in GCL, where a polished pitcher who can repeat delivery is going to show better than he actually is. I hope Sixto becomes the real deal, but we've been fooled by a lot of polished LA pitchers at GCL and have yet to hit on a starter. I like KIlome's size and that he at least pitched in full-season ball. I can forgive an awful April. I still think the minors start too early in this part of the country. April is brutal weather. We've left Reading and Allentown April games at the point my brother can't feel his feet anymore.

[phillychuck]

Adonis Medina missing from the BA list is surprising. Mid-90s FB, great slider, success in the NYPL, what's not to like? .195 Opp BA. I guess the Ks are little low for his stuff...

[andyb]

I would rank our top pitchers Kilome, Sanchez, Gowdy, and then Medina. I think the lack of Ks did hurt Medina and he'll need to develop a better out pitch to be a mid-rotation starter. Gowdy's assortment of pitches is better even if his velocity is slightly lower. Plus Gowdy has more physical projection remaining.

[kmc1019]

Agree with you on Kilome, though I would attribute lower ranking to his overall stat line which is not all that impressive.

However, with Kilome it was really a tale of two seasons: he was flat out brutal in April and May, but strengthened as the year went on.

In his final 10 starts, he had an ERA below 2, WHIP right around 1.0 and averaged well above a strikeout per inning.

Here's hoping he can pick up in Clearwater where he left off in Lakewood. If he does, he'll likely zoom past Sanchez and plenty of other pitchers from other organizations as well.

[Austinfan]

I think you're all sleeping on Anderson, they were gushing on him when they put him on the 40 man roster, an opposing scout said he might be the best pitching prospect in the organization.

[andyb]

So you would rank him top 10? He is definitely top 30 and might sneak in the back of the top 20 for me, but it is not like anything he has done or his raw stuff suggests he should be mentioned in the same breath as Sanchez or Kilome or even Gowdy to me.