Unless the player is a top prospect, I tend to put them on the "suspect" list until they have a big enough sample to see if they're performing up to the hype. Conversely, a good performance at the GCL or Williamsport might pump you, but it's more confirmation than proof of talent. To me, Lakewood is the litmus test that separates pretenders from contenders, as hyped as Kilome was, pitching a full season was key to seeing him as a top prospect. Pitchers especially tend to burn out between the draft and Lakewood for numerous reasons, from injuries to never developing a secondary pitch or lacking the command to be even moderately success in pro ball.
What jumps out at me compared to last year is that while it might be thinner at the top due to graduation, overall the talent is deeper than last season, far more players answered questions in a positive fashion, which may reflect both good scouting and good player development. I think my biggest disappointments were Brown, Sandberg, Williams, Appel, Knapp, Grullon, Tocci, Canelo, L Williams, Windle, and Mora - and of this group all but Brown have a shot at redemption (I think Brown is now too old given his slow progress to have a future on the field, maybe as a RP).
Hardest thing with young pitchers is ranking them is mostly projection until they have a track record, and they have such a high level of flameout. Gowdy was ranked higher, but Irvin dropped because of Tj surgery that now looks like is behind him, and may end up the better pitcher - but we won't have a clue for two more years. How do you rank a skinny pitcher like Fanti who dominated the GCL, a junk baller LHP who will fail higher up, or a projectable arm that's already polished and may add velocity as he fills out?
