2017-18 Offseason Non-Phillies News/Notes/Discussion

[LoneStarPhan]

I'm all for the Phillies spending money to win but money spent foolishly only hurts that cause. So far, I think they are on track to continue the improvement this season.

[Lawman]

Looks like former MLB pitcher Esteban Loaiza found himself a new career:

Jeff Passan (JeffPassan)

[andyb]

Darvish contract: $25MM in 2018, $20MM in 2019, $22MM apiece in 2020 and 2021, $19MM in 2022, and $18MM in 2023.

Then there is a $2 million escalator (not bonus) for winning Cy Young, $1 million for 2-5. For the record he was 9th in 2012 and 2nd in 2013, so he would only have triggered the escalator once. I think it is written as a repeat escalator. So if he is 2nd-5th in 2018, each of the 6 years of his contract goes up by $1 million. If he hit it a second time after 2020 the last 4 years of his contract would rise again.

Creative move by the Cubs to put a clause in the contract that has a present day value of maybe $3-$5 million and it lets you talk about the contract as $126 million to potentially over $150 million.

[allentown]

As evidence of just how far Venezuela has fallen: MLB moved its showcase for 2018 VZ talent outside of VZ for safety reasons... to Cartagena, Colombia. Was the cartel hired to supply security staff?

[julio]

Was the cartel hired to supply security staff?

LOL. On the one hand, this would certainly be a case of "the end justifies the means." On the other hand... they'd probably do a good job!

[zambonir]

All kidding aside Cartagena is safe, and even hip, these days. But certainly anywhere would be safer than Venezuela.

[mdougherty12]

Hosmer to San Diego for 8/$144 million, front-loaded & an opt-out after year 5:

Padres, Eric Hosmer agree to terms

[nycphils]

Twins get Odorizzi for a non top 10 SS prospect who played at both low A and high A last year. He’s a hacker that BA projects could be a utility guy IF he learns to control the strike zone.

Odorizzi is due $6.5m and under control until 2020. Seems like Jose Gomez or Eliezer Alvarez would be a comp to the guy the Twins gave up.

[fish]

Twins get Odorizzi for a non top 10 SS prospect who played at both low A and high A last year. He’s a hacker that BA projects could be a utility guy IF he learns to control the strike zone.

Odorizzi is due $6.5m and under control until 2020. Seems like Jose Gomez or Eliezer Alvarez would be a comp to the guy the Twins gave up.

On top of a light haul for Odorizzi they designate their all star Corey Dickerson for assignment to avoid paying him 6 million. That just feels like Rays ownership spitting on their fan base.

[allentown]

Odorizzi is an interesting youngish pitcher who had an off-year last season -- started well, horrendous mid-season, good September. A RHP who is more effective against lefties. A lot of HRs last season and walks up by 1.25 per 9. Have to wonder if he had injury.

[andyb]

Hosmer to the Padres for only 8/144. I guess he really wanted 8 years. The deal IS front loaded with an opt-out after 5 years so it is 5/105 for 5.

Lin: The Padres take a big gamble on an eight-year deal with...

There are clearly bargains to be had in this market. Just wondering if Arrieta's price will have to drop to something like 4/80.

[Austinfan]

Wouldn't touch Arrieta for that price, I think his arm is shot, that's a big velocity falloff the last two years. So whatever the term, I doubt he'll be above replacement in 2020. Which means you're paying his entire salary for maybe 4-5 WAR.

Hosmer makes the Santana deal look good, 5 yr, $105M (28-32), with a player option for 3yr, $39M (33-35).
He has put up 13 WAR the last five years, so that's fair value the next five, but the three out years could be dead money.
How many decent but not great hitting 1B are above replacement level at age 33?.
He's a minus fielder, so if his bat declines to .750 OPS or below (his off seasons) he's barely above replacement level.

[andyb]

Hosmer makes the Santana deal look good, 5 yr, $105M (28-32), with a player option for 3yr, $39M (33-35).

There is the slight issue that Hosmer is 28 and Santana is 32. Hosmer's price was below market even if you just look at the first 5 years. Those 4 years make a huge difference in player value. Something you yourself seem to mention with every pitcher. Hitters age too. Santana might be a little bit better player if you average the last 3 years. But that is Santana's age 29-31 years, not 32-34. If you are so interested in what happens when Hosmer declines, why are you uninterested in the decline of a player whose age makes it much more likely statistically (who is not that great defensively in his own right).

[zambonir]

He has put up 13 WAR the last five years, so that's fair value the next five, but the three out years could be dead money.

The deal is structured for that very inevitability. Dead money is dead money, no team signs a top free agent thinking it won't happen.

[Austinfan]

Analytics show that age matters in term of decline, but Santana was hitting as well at 31 as Hosmer at 27, which means his expected decline at 32 is far above Hosmer at 32.

In other words its safer to project an older Santana two years out than Hosmer four years out.

Decline rates tend to be independent of age, however, most players start declining at a younger age, producing when you're older increases the probability you'll still be productive.

[allentown]

but Santana was hitting as well at 31 as Hosmer at 27, which means his expected decline at 32 is far above Hosmer at 32.

No. In no universe is this true. Hosmer just had the top offensive year of his career:..318/.385/,498/.883 4.8 oWAR, 4.0 WAR
versus the lesser stats for Santana: .259/.363/.455/,818 2.6 oWAR 3.4WAR (off significant from his earlier in career oWAR)

2.6 oWAR is not nearly as good as 4.8 oWAR; still going up is a far cry from coming down for years. When Santana was 27, his oWAR was 5.3. Santana's dWAR was uncharacteristically high last season, but his bat is in unmistakable decline.

[andyb]

Analytics show that age matters in term of decline, but Santana was hitting as well at 31 as Hosmer at 27, which means his expected decline at 32 is far above Hosmer at 32.

In other words its safer to project an older Santana two years out than Hosmer four years out.

Decline rates tend to be independent of age, however, most players start declining at a younger age, producing when you're older increases the probability you'll still be productive.

Huh? So your point is basically Santana won't decline at age 32 because you like him and Hosmer will at age 28 because you don't. Hosmer may not even start declining for a couple of years at his age where decline is almost certain for Santana. Hosmer is a pretty good athlete for a 1B as well - not the type that typically declines quickly.

[Austinfan]

No, my point is with an older player on a shorter contract, you can have more confidence projecting decline than a younger player on a longer deal.
That is Hosmer in year four or five has more variability. And six to eight years out ($39M), good luck.
It's not a bad bet that he'll get the same WAR the next five years as the last five, but it is a bad bet that he'll still be a productive player at the end of that period.
The weird thing about him is he's had three good seasons with these BABIPs, .335, .336, .351.

The difference is that Santana has been more consistent the last six years, with only one offseason in 2015.
His 2016 ISO is an anomaly, otherwise he's been pretty consistent over that period.
He's a good bet for a .360 OBP and a .420-450 SA.
And none of his years is a BABIP outlier.
So while he'll decline, you already know how productive he was at 30-31.

[allentown]

He's a good bet for a .360 OBP and a .420-450 SA.

He probably is, although he is already showing decline and we cannot know how steep it will become. I cited his decline in oWAR above.

Big point though: I'll readily grant you that he is a good bet for a .360 OBP and .420 SA, which comes out to a .780 OPS, if you'll grant me that a .780 OPS is pretty much crap for a first baseman. His OPS for the last 5 seasons are: .832, .792, .755, .864, .818. Over that period, his oWAR has been 5.3, 3.7, 1.6, 2.9, 2.6.

Of course it's easier to project decline with Santana, because he's been in decline for 4 seasons, while Hosmer hasn't begun to decline yet. I admit that Hosmer's 2017 may prove to be an outlier -- it is by far his best season, but he should be in his prime now, so we just can't know that yet.

[andyb]

The real difference is that Santana is 4 years older and more likely to decline in the high paid years of the contract. Hosmer at 28 could actually still have more upside. Is there more variation and risk in years 6-8 with Hosmer than with Santana's similar age years - probably - though that variation could also include Hosmer being better than Santana while only getting paid $13 million after 5 more years of baseball inflation. In other words $13 million 6-8 years from now is the equivalent of like $11 million today.

So all your logic is selective and comes down to the fact that you like Santana more and assume he won't age as quickly as others because you like him more. The Hosmer contract was at a discount. The Santana contract was a bit above market. That is completely independent of thinking Santana is a good player. I love his bat. I hate that it forces us to play Hoskins out of position though. And the above market does not bother me at all since we have so much cash to spend.