2017-18 Offseason Non-Phillies News/Notes/Discussion

[Austinfan]

No, it comes down to Hosmer being a lesser talent at the same age with bigger flaws which means he's a tougher projection.
The fact that his 3 good years came with unsustainable BABIP raises an eyebrow.
A lot of guys who are 2nd tier talents fall off the cliff by 32, figuring out which ones is the problem.

[phillychuck]

For the Phils, which player would you prefer, Hosmer on his contract or Santana on his? I like the lower risk of the short term contract, especially if we find out Hoskins really belongs at 1B. But I'm sure opinions vary on this.

interestingly, the Fangraphs predictions for Hosmer and Santana this season are pretty indistinguishable (Santana 123 RC+; Hosmer 120).

Another interesting note is that Hosmer has a good defensive reputation, but average to below average metrics defensively, while Santana has a bad defensive rep, but slightly above average metrics.

[andyb]

No, it comes down to Hosmer being a lesser talent at the same age with bigger flaws which means he's a tougher projection.

This just is not true though. The 27 year old coming off a 4.0 WAR year is the lesser talent than the 21-year-old coming off a 3.4 WAR year? The 31 year old who had not had a 4 WAR year since 2013? You are just looking through things with rose colored glasses.

[andyb]

For the Phils, which player would you prefer, Hosmer on his contract or Santana on his? I like the lower risk of the short term contract, especially if we find out Hoskins really belongs at 1B. But I'm sure opinions vary on this.

interestingly, the Fangraphs predictions for Hosmer and Santana this season are pretty indistinguishable (Santana 123 RC+; Hosmer 120).

Another interesting note is that Hosmer has a good defensive reputation, but average to below average metrics defensively, while Santana has a bad defensive rep, but slightly above average metrics.

On your first question I prefer the Santana contract because I generally hate 8-year deals to anyone. I also prefer it because we have the short term money to waste over the next 3 years. There is no reason we should not overpay because we can easily do it.

That is independent of saying that the Hosmer contract is a better value than the Santana contract. For the Phillies I am frankly not a fan of either contract. The simple reason behind that is that we already had a good young 1B who we are now putting out of position in the OF where the drop in defense will hurt us (and never be considered by people who analyze by OPS).

On your last comment about defense, I totally agree that Hosmer has a good reputation and mediocre stats. Probably stems from the high pick buzz and the good athleticism. Might also mean 1B defensive stats are pretty random at times. On Santana though it is hard to say he has slightly above average metrics. His last 5 years of dWAR on Baseball Reference are -1.2, -1.4, -1.4, -1.1, and 0.0. Only the first of those had a lot of catcher in the stats. Maybe he has improved at 1B some with experience, but I would say average at best and most likely below average. And more so as he ages.

[Austinfan]

Hosmer is not a 4 WAR player, that was partially a .351 BABIP artifact.

When you look at a 3 or 5 year stretch (in his peak years), you see a guy who is more like a 2.5-3 WAR hitter who is unusually variable due to his erratic BABIP, when he's a "mere" .300 BABIP he's barely above replacement. A high BABIP for a guy without great speed is rarely sustainable, so if you were projecting him you'd do so thinking maybe .320 BABIP going forward (which is still very high).

Whereas Santana's performance is far more consistent and thus more projectable.
His BB, K, BABIP, ISO are pretty stable.

[andyb]

Hosmer is not a 4 WAR player, that was partially a .351 BABIP artifact.

Well he was last year. And at age 27. He had 3.5 and 3.6 WAR years also in the past 5 years. So given his age where his peak could easily extend a few years, it is not like he is that far away. Part of the reason for the high BABIP is he actually has average speed. And he hits the ball pretty hard consistently. And he plays in a relatively large park which means there is a bit more room in the outfield. That means there is more room for hits in the OF (2B and 3B) and fewer HRs.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2017

And you keep going back to whatever Santana does is sustainable and Hosmer is not. Age is just a huge part of that. We already have Santana's power dropping last year when home runs around the league exploded. I guess they must use the dead balls only for Santana. If you want to talk about how the 8-year contract could be a future problem you have a point. But the argument that Santana will be much better in his age 32-34 years (in a non DH league) will be better than Hosmer's age 28-30 years simply because Santana is not going to decline more because of his age and your leap of logic is astonishing.

[allentown]

Whereas Santana's performance is far more consistent and thus more projectable.
His BB, K, BABIP, ISO are pretty stable.

For the past 3 years, he's averaged 2.5 WAR; for the 3 years prior to that, he averaged 3.7. That is projectable, but it doesn't project to all that good.

I would not have signed Hosmer to that deal, but he clearly was a better player than Santana last season. Saying it's do to BABIP doesn't say all that much. Some players naturally have higher BABIP than others. Random variation in BABIP can explain strange stats over SSS, but Hosmer did it over about 700 PA, which isn't all that small a sample.

I was okay with the Santana signing, expecting us to also get a quality SP. If we are choosing to pass on a pitcher, then I think Santana was the wrong FA to focus upon.

[Squire]

Some smoke out there that the Red Sox are close to signing OF J.D. Martinez

[Austinfan]

Santana is independent of a pitcher.

And he was signed for a number of reasons, short contract, 1B defense with two rookie IFs, switch-hitter and mentor to the LA players - they put his locker next to Franco's for a reason.

I don't have a problem with the first 5 years of Hosmer's deal, as I said, it's reasonable given his production the last five years that he can approach that the next five years. The three out years are just dead money, $39M, so it you want to see it as deferred salary, go ahead. But Hosmer is erratic, and his good years are all connected to very high BABIPs. Yes you'd expect him to be above average, but .330-350 BABIP is way at the end of the tail, so you're betting he can maintain an unusually high BABIP the next five years - and that makes him more risky than the average bear.

[phillychuck]

I agree with AF's take on Hosmer. His BABIP is probably not sustainable. He's probably a good deal for the first 5 years, but I wouldn't have added 3 more years, and I wouldn't want the Phils to do that either.

As andyb points out, Santana's summary defensive metrics are slightly negative, but his Inside Edge numbers are better than Hosmer's. Looks like Hosmer might be more consistent, but Santana actually has more range. Hosmer has the reputation as an excellent scooper of bad throws, but he doesn't get to a lot of batted balls. You pick your poison, I guess...

[zambonir]

Not sure how we ended up debating Hosmer vs. Santana as if the Phillies were ever interested in the former...

I get Allentown's point though. You've only got Santana for three years. As has now been discussed extensively, he's both not young and has probably peaked. If you are going to make that position upgrade while also forcing a position switch for one young player (Hoskins), and a partial switch/reduced playing time for another (Williams), it stands to reason that you would want to do the same by getting a pitcher who is better than Lively or Eflin. You want to improve the team for what will likely be 50% of Santana's best years (i.e., two of the three years he's signed for).

But, we still don't know that they aren't going to do that.

[andyb]

For the Phillies the shorter contract for Santana is probably better. But we are also taking on the probability that Santana ages much quicker than Hosmer. Frankly neither is a great contract for the Phillies since we already have a good young 1B in Hoskins and have other 1B like Ortiz in the pipline. Hosmer is a slightly better player when you factor in the age, even for the next 3 years. The downside for Hosmer of course is that you have to sign the younger player to a longer deal to actually get him. None of that matters to the Phillies of course because we were not looking for a long term 1B. It does not change the value equation on the Hosmer deal though and the fact is that the contract was a bit below market (paired with Santana being a bit above market).

[andyb]

JD Martinez to the Red Sox.

Red Sox Sign J.D. Martinez

5/110. Opt out after 2/50 and 3/72. No idea about bonuses and escalators yet.

[BostonRoss]

I hope that the Phillies are willing to move Hoskins back to 1B eventually if he is hitting but proves to be a bad OF. I remember Luzinski staying in LF while they signed Richie Hebner.

[Austinfan]

Actually, Hoskins in his SSS wasn't a bad OF, and he's a below average defensive 1B.
It may well be they prefer Santana's defense over Hoskins at 1B more than Williams over Hoskins in LF.

[andyb]

Actually, Hoskins in his SSS wasn't a bad OF, and he's a below average defensive 1B.

According to BR he was -3 runs below average in the OF and +3 at 1B in roughly the same amount of playing time at each position. Which fits the conventional wisdom (and the lack of range eye test) that he was below average in LF. No idea how he ends up at 1B but there is not a lot of evidence he is bad there. All SSS of course, but the facts are kind of opposite to what you said.

[zambonir]

But Williams wasn't great either. And how bad was Luzinski really, during his peak years? Burrell? Given their bats, obviously.

Of course it's entirely possible Hoskins will go back to 1B by 2020 (at which point Santana might be a part-time player or even traded). It's also possible he'll play 40 games at 1B this season.

[andyb]

Definitely agree there though since Williams is faster he has the potential to be good defensively while Hoskins probably does not.

I expect the plan is for Santana to rest about 20-25 games a year and Hoskins would play first those days. And of course both Hoskins and Santana could be candidates for double switches or pinch running late in the game if Quinn makes the roster as a bench player, which could easily lead to Hoskins playing first in many more games than the 20 he would start.

[zambonir]

Plus Santana will DH. We'll see how serious Kapler is about the whole position-switching thing. We'll probably see him at 3B at some point too, albeit not often.

Let's hope Willams and Altherr make this a problem, where it actually feels like they have too many OFs.

[andyb]

The Franco not playing well scenario could definitely force a bunch of different decisions.