2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[allentown]

I don't really care about 75 v 81 v 86 wins, this summer is more about finding what they have.
And I'm curious to see if Kapler can change how they develop players in a positive way.

Put me down as caring a lot about 86 vs 75 wins. We are still loaded with $ and another move in-season can push that 86-win team to 89 and a wild card spot, once Klentak realizes that he has an 86-win team. An 86-win team is also one heck of a lot more fun to watch than a 75-win team. After extended years of misery, the owners and Klentak have an obligation to provide that to the fans, if they can without screwing up the future, and they easily can. An 86-win team is also a far better situation for the young Phillies and their new manager to grow together, make the final skill refinements needed, and progress to a legit playoff team which is attractive to FA next off-season and ready to take the next step to a team that is good enough to progress in the playoffs. Please, let's not downplay the significance of moving from 75 to 86 wins, just so you can try to win a discussion. That increase in wins is HUGE.

If you don't care about the Phillies improving to 81 or 86 wins, then your position is wholly consistent. However, you (and Klentak) need to be aware that one can't just wait for the magical assemblage of a virtually complete young core and just throw a switch and win 90-92 games. The Eagles went for it from 7-9, but with about as many good young pieces in place as the Phillies have now, they added talent where needed, and now they are the champions. That's how champions are made. The 2008 WC team wasn't as good as the 101-win team or probably one or two other teams from the golden era, but things broke right and they got to and won a WS. They were far from the best team in the NL, let alone baseball, but close enough to compete and go for it all. The current Phillies, even with a key FA or two, are unlikely to win a WS this season, but they are too good to raise the white flag before the season begins.

The core fans have been remarkably forgiving of an almost constant franchise record of failure. When the team was short of $, fans made allowances. The team is not short of $ now, so those allowances aren't called for.

Klentak still strikes me as a very young, inexperienced GM with ideas and a plan, but lacking the courage to allow those ideas and plan to be tested on the field. He wants another year of no-pressure tenure to gain the on-the-job training and experience he lacked when we hired him. If he doesn't have faith in his ideas and isn't willing to be judged on the basis of whether or not he can field a team with a winning record this year, then for all of his intelligence and ideas, he just wasn't the right man for the job; he has more growing up to do, before he can be an effective GM. Middleton said he wanted to spend this year. Klentak is the anchor holding this team in place as a losing team.

[kmc1019]

The Marlins are awful, the Braves' best prospects will not yet be in the majors, and we can trust the Mets to be hapless as usual by mid-season. The Phils will win 86........more if they get aggressive on adding another pitcher!

[andyb]

We don't know we will win 76 or 86. Right now we probably have like a 5% chance of 86 (and probably of 66 too). But add 3 wins and that might be a 15%-20% chance at 86 which gets you in the realm of possibility.

Right now Baseball Prospectus has us at 78 wins.

BP Depth Charts

I have seen other projections a few wins lower. I don't want to mortgage the future (i.e. trade top prospects) for young, controllable starters (though I am open to a Cesar Hernandez deal that would do that). So adding a free agent for money out of our likely significant profits makes sense. And remember our cashflow gets an extra $50 million MLBAM check this year like all clubs but we are not struggling with a high payroll like some clubs are.

[California_Dreamin]

I agree with allentown and kmc...this Phillie team, with a few additions to the pitching staff, can compete in the NL and once you get to 86 wins anything is possible, especially given the Phils deep pockets.

For instance, there seems no reason the Phils can't get lefty relief specialist Tony Watson signed if they A] want him bad enough and B] are competing against the Giants and Red Sox for his services. None at all. Both the Giants and Sox are up against the luxury tax [Giants are 2 million below] and the Phils can give Watson a 2/12 contract without blinking. And Watson is a Boras client so if the Phils truly think they have a chance to sign Arrieta, another Boras client, it doesn't hurt to have the starting pitcher see a team that has assembled a very decent bullpen.

I also agree with allentown that Klentak still seems very conservative and apprehensive about being bold [Kapler's mantra] but after the Eagles victory and with Kapler's enthusiasm and pedal to the medal attitude I think he will find it hard not to give in to Middleton/Kapler when it comes to adding a solid starting pitcher to the equation.

This team reminds me very much of the '74-75 Phillies, a team that in 1972 lost 103 games but was building a young core of solid players. Paul Owens saw the same thing and went out and got Kaat, Reed and a few other players and by 1976 they were a perennial playoff team.

There is no big market/big money team in baseball with more cash to spend right now than the Phillies. They should NEVER get outbid on any player they truly want this year.

[Austinfan]

If this teams wins 86 games, it won't be because we added a FA SP, that might get you 1-2 wins on the margin.
We'll win 86 games because some young players step it up and some young pitchers step up.
But that only happens if you give them the opportunity.
We have such a deep stable of young pitchers from Reading up to Philly, that I'd like to see what they've got.

With a deep bullpen we have the luxury of limiting some of them to twice through the lineup, which allows them to grow on the job (going deeper into games as their secondary pitches develop).

It's not like there was a Hamels, Lee or Halladay in free agency, Darvish was a step below those guys, and the pitchers left are #3s at best.

[andyb]

t's not like there was a Hamels, Lee or Halladay in free agency, Darvish was a step below those guys, and the pitchers left are #3s at best.

Darvish compared pretty favorably to Hamels. And he signed at a discount to what Hamels is paid.

If 2 wins gets you from 85 to 87 that might be worth it. Looking now though if it increases your playoff odds from 5% to 18% it might be worth doing (and might pay for itself through ticket sales and TV ratings).

The projected rotation with last year's BR WAR is:

Nola (4.5), Velasquez (0.4), Eickhoff (0.7), Pivetta (-0.3), Lively (1.2), Eflin (-0.3), Thompson (0.4). And Lively is probably a candidate for some 2nd time around the league regression. In short, it is not a good rotation even if one or two young pitchers improve.

[tom81]

Klentak still strikes me as a very young, inexperienced GM with ideas and a plan, but lacking the courage to allow those ideas and plan to be tested on the field.

I also agree with allentown that Klentak still seems very conservative and apprehensive about being bold [Kapler's mantra]

Young yes, but I don't get the lacking courage part at all. Are these are signs of courage:

1. He fired his manager, who he just extended that season, when he realized that the team was becoming competitive and needed a new manager, a new approach.
2. He goes way outside the box and hires Gabe Kapler who has had not MLB managerial experience and minimal managing experience at any level.
3. He signs an over 30 FA who plays the same position as his most popular and best young player.
4. He sets the market by signing 2 FA relief pitchers before any action had started in that part of the market.
5. He has let the starting pitcher come to him and is now in a position to acquire one or more at a cheaper price than he could of if he had pulled the trigger early. He may even be in a position to acquire a SP in a trade at a cheaper price than if he acted earlier. Say Arizona gets JDM at a lower than expected price, Corbin may be available via a salary dump.

He does have to act on #5 before the final grade on him for this year will be complete but to accuse him of lacking courage is unjustified at this time.

[David_Criss]

No way do I want to see the Phillies lose a draft pick for 2 years of Arrieta. With Eickhoff, Lively, Nola, Pivetta, Velasquez, Eshelman and Thompson the team does need, IMO, an older innings eater. Why they aren't all over Jason Vargas on a 2/24 type deal is beyond me. I think he is the ideal fit. John Lackey, Andrew Cashner also could be worth a 1, maybe 2-year gamble.

How many more games will the Phillies win by adding Arrieta? If they lose a draft pick, it better be for a long term investment - the Phillies don't need a stop gap at this point. If that was the case then the drums would be beating for Moustakis.

[bigegypt0417]

[quote="Austinfan, post:1182, topic:50530"]
I don't really care about 75 v 81 v 86 wins, this summer is more about finding what they have.
And I'm curious to see if Kapler can change how they develop players in a positive way.

AF has been saying this exact thing for 3 years...

"this year is about finding out what you have"

He may also be one of the only people who would take not making the playoffs over making the playoffs or at least contending. It's moneyball with a team that doesn't really have that constraint.

[Austinfan]

It's not about moneyball right now, it's about playing the kids, finding out what they have and then making moves next offseason.
Phillies have a lot of starting pitchers who should either be ready this year or next year.

Nola (25), Velasquez (25), Eickhoff (28), Pivetta (25), Lively (26), Eflin (24), Thompson (24).
Behind them
Anderson (24), Eshelman (24), Tavares (24)
At Reading to start the season:
Kilome (23), De Los Santos (22), Irvin (23), Waguespack (24), El Garcia (23), Viza (23)
Potential fast risers in Clearwater:
Romero (22), Sanchez (20), Medina (21), Suarez (23), Howard (22)

Ten SP between the ML and AAA that they need to make decisions on, they can't park them in Lehigh indefinitely, so either they are ML pitchers, on the brink of being ML pitchers, or trade bait.
Between Reading and Clearwater, they'll have a full Lehigh rotation in 2019.

[allentown]

So... you've just set the stage for two more seasons of finding out what the young pitchers can do, before actually acting to improve the pitching.

[allentown]

The lack of courage part is his refusal to put himself in a position in which he is responsible and accountable for the results on the field. He was evaluating. He was changing personnel. He was conserving the owners' cash by not making bad deals. All the while, the baseball world marches on and seasons are surrendered.

[California_Dreamin]

Bingo!! I have been a phan of Klentak's up to this point and applauded his trade deadline deals last July. He did a good job. His Giles deal would look a lot better right now had he kept it as it originally was based but I understand why he made the changes and give him a pass on it.

But the Phillies may be the only team in baseball that seems to have an owner who wants to spend money to try and win while having a GM who seems reluctant to stick his neck out and beg judged on the results.

Be Bold seems to be the motto of this years Phillies and it think its time that Klentak adopted the same philosophy. Its now 6 years of mediocrity or worse and given the success of the Eagles it just seems a logical time to take some chances...especially given they have an owner who wants to spend the money and not bank it.

[Austinfan]

Meh. It's not like FA pitchers are sure things, and we have a lot of young candidates that require decisions, many by the end of the year. So throw 'em into the fire, see who's worth keeping, who you might be able to package to get a SP.

Eickhoff could bounce back and be as good as Lynn or Cobb, he was a 3 WAR pitcher two years ago and he's only 28.
Cobb for example will be 30, coming off a 2.4 WAR season after not pitching for almost two years.
Pivetta and Velasquez have top stuff.
Elfin might take it up a notch with healthy knees.
Lively has the arm to be an innings eater.
Thompson was a top rated prospect, Eshelman a 2nd rd pick, Anderson has a live arm.

The way you jump start a rebuild is to find two or three pitchers out of your own farm system that can fill out a rotation, at that point you're able to focus on upgrades and not depth in free agency.

[andyb]

Having too much starting pitching if some of the kids pan out is not a problem though. Right now we have Nola and a bunch of 5th starters. If we add a 3rd starter type at the same time that 4 different kids make a dramatic step forward then all we have done is spent money to create a situation where we can trade from a position of strength.

Reality is we probably will need 8-10 starters anyway. Some pitchers will get hurt. Some will be bad. I just see the current $60 something million payroll as a crying need to improve that situation. I don't KNOW that we can compete this year. I just want the POSSIBILITY of competing without mortgaging any significant part of the future.

[julio]

There are plenty of opportunities for the young pitchers to get enough starts to show what they have, even if the club adds another established starter. It's not as if having an established 1-2 is going to mean only three young pitchers get opportunities. There would only be three of 'em in the rotation at any one time, but it's a long season. Some of them will struggle, and get sent out; somebody will get injured; etc.

And "worst case," three of them will pitch so well that they'll block other candidates. That's not great for the blocked candidates - but it would be wonderful for the organization, if three of the young pitchers seize spots in the rotation and pitch so well that they cannot be dislodged!

[zambonir]

I don't buy for a second that Klentak is timid, or that MacPhail isn't on the same page as him. His job security isn't going to change, he is going to be out of a job if the Phillies haven't made the playoffs by 2019 or 2020 (hopefully both, but look at how it went for the Astros). Conversely, he could get fired a lot faster if he signs Jake Arrieta and the guy only puts up 1.0 WAR. So sure, that's risk avoidance, but if your scouting has identified that risk why would you take it?

His youth and inexperience doesn't matter either, most GMs are young these days. To me the thing you take from the Eagles is having the courage of your convictions and sticking to a long-term plan. The times Lurie hasn't done that were always bad (even if we didn't believe it at the time, the Dream Team and Kelly and demoting Howie all seemed like great - and very fan-friendly, win-now - ideas).

This isn't about going from 75 wins to 86 wins, it's about going from 66 wins to 86 wins. It could happen but you don't run a team based on the fan-like optimism that it could happen. You don't base all your plans on what a bunch of rookies did for eight weeks either. The upgrade from a Cashner or Lively to a Cobb isn't going to make or break this season. If it turns out that the position players are good enough that they can sniff .500 - there will be opportunities to make the team better.

And hey, they still might get Cobb or Lynn! Maybe Arietta too. But I wouldn't take him for more than three years is all. Again, that's not timid, that's smart. Yeah, the team has enough money and cap room that dead money in 2021 might not be a hindrance, but you should only add it if the player is that good and team's chances are that good. Not because they might be.

[flyers19rw]

It's not about moneyball right now, it's about playing the kids, finding out what they have and then making moves next offseason.
Phillies have a lot of starting pitchers who should either be ready this year or next year.

Nola (25), Velasquez (25), Eickhoff (28), Pivetta (25), Lively (26), Eflin (24), Thompson (24).
Behind them
Anderson (24), Eshelman (24), Tavares (24)
At Reading to start the season:
Kilome (23), De Los Santos (22), Irvin (23), Waguespack (24), El Garcia (23), Viza (23)
Potential fast risers in Clearwater:
Romero (22), Sanchez (20), Medina (21), Suarez (23), Howard (22)

Ten SP between the ML and AAA that they need to make decisions on, they can't park them in Lehigh indefinitely, so either they are ML pitchers, on the brink of being ML pitchers, or trade bait.
Between Reading and Clearwater, they'll have a full Lehigh rotation in 2019.

I am in this camp right now. Granted not very prospect is going to pan out but then again, not every prospect is going to flame out. There is some strong talent in the system; especially at the A level.
We've seen Velasquez, Eickhoff, Pivetta, Lively, Eflin, and Thompson. So far Eickhoff has been good aside from last season when his arm went south on him (due to slippery MLB balls?). I'm not ready to write him off. Some say that the rest of that bunch is mediocre but we haven't seen what they can do when healthy (Eflin) and with a decent PC.

If they bomb out so be it and bring on the next wave. There are some scouts that think that Irvin and Romero will be up here by August and there is talent with the others in AA ball. That's before the gems in A ball come through.

Its spring and we're all antsy to see the team get on the field and do well. However, signing 30-ish guys who have health issues and mediocre records in the show that will cost $$$ and draft choices is a dicey path to travel.
Someone said that five years ago we were gagging on 30-ish guys on the roster that had big numbers and term attached t them. Now we should go out and sign that type of player; especially a pitcher; IDK about that at all. The best way to get good pitching is to grow your own.

[allentown]

Someone said that five years ago we were gagging on 30-ish guys on the roster that had big numbers and term attached t them. Now we should go out and sign that type of player; especially a pitcher; IDK about that at all. The best way to get good pitching is to grow your own.

IMHO you are trying to re-fight the last war and the Phillies circumstances aren't at all the same as they were back then. The problem with the demise of the golden era seems to be that we established a home-grown core, and stuck with it too long as it aged out, with the only significant additions being expensive, older players we traded for and signed in FA. We were constantly scraping against both the salary cap and the budget set by ownership, yet every hole/problem was solved with another vet. If the farm had been productive and we had rotated out (traded) pieces of the core as they aged and replaced them with good young talent from the farm, or if we had filled holes from the farm, then the cap/budget problem would have been avoided.

Today is nothing like that. We are not anywhere remotely close to the lux cap or what the owners can/are willing to spend. Not in 2018 and not possibly over the next several years. Yes, I agree it would be a terrible thing to build an old, expensive rotation like the one we had, but signing a 30-year old pitcher to a multi-year deal now is not the problem that it was back then. Why? Because we don't have any other 30-year old SP in the rotation. We don't even have any upper-20s SP in the rotation. In fact, apart from relievers and Santana, we don't have any 30+ players we are counting on. It is a very young and very cheap team, the second lowest salary budget in baseball.

The way you run into salary problems in the future is the way we did back in the golden era. You wait to add FA/trade talent until your young core is virtually set, you let the core go old together, and you patch with vets. How to avoid that? Have a range of ages on the team. A FA pitcher we sign now can be gone after 4 seasons, to be replaced with a young SP from the farm. If the rotation is all from the farm and grows up together and gels and stays together, that's great for the short term, but before long you have a starting rotation of all 30 and 30+ guys.

Yes, it is best to grow your own pitching. Fortunately, our roster of position players has come together faster than expected. It is doubtful there are 5 good SPs for this season among our kids. If you wait for the guys in A-ball to fill the gap, then you throw away at least two more seasons. Nola, a plus FA SP still leaves 3 other kids in the rotation, and during the course of the season, it won't be the same 3 kids. We love our young pitchers, because they are our own minor league products -- at least for final development after trade acquisition, but they weren't all that good last season. There is promise and some will break out this year, but it is next to impossible that 3 of them will break out this year. None of them is a top 100 prospect in baseball.

[schillingfan]

Given that we have lots of money to spend, no veteran starting pitcher and that lots of pitchers are needed this season I fail to see how adding a free agent veteran (even at the cost of a 3rd round pick) harms rebuilding at all. OTOH such a move hopefully will increase wins next season and into the future and increase competitiveness and fan interest in the team.

I just don't see the downside. There will still be open starting jobs and opportunities for our young pitchers to prove themselves. Given injury and pitchers who pitch poorly, I don't see how adding one arm to the mix will mean we have given up on our youthful pitchers.