2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[bigegypt0417]

To me, he's "buyer beware."

This comment is one you have used for virtually every FA that we've ever discussed.

[andyb]

The cubs to me are just in "win" mode

Probably so, though the Cubs core will hit expensive free agent or arbitration contracts over the course of the 6-year Darvish deal. The first 4 years (pre-arb, 1st arb) are pretty inexpensive. Years 5 and 6 get more expensive.

They are already over $130 million guaranteed for 2019. Bryant will be $15+ million on top of that. Hendricks and Russell another $15 million. Then they have 6-8 more arbitration guys on top of that so they are already close to the 2019 limit.

Now they are a big market team that wants to win, but this deal just puts pressure on them in the out years that a deal with the Phillies would not have forced. They are pretty certain to exceed the cap next year unless they get rid of a big salary or two.

[bigegypt0417]

The cubs to me are just in "win" mode

Probably so, though the Cubs core will hit expensive free agent or arbitration contracts over the course of the 6-year Darvish deal. The first 4 years (pre-arb, 1st arb) are pretty inexpensive. Years 5 and 6 get more expensive.

They are already over $130 million guaranteed for 2019. Bryant will be $15+ million on top of that. Hendricks and Russell another $15 million. Then they have 6-8 more arbitration guys on top of that so they are already close to the 2019 limit.

Now they are a big market team that wants to win, but this deal just puts pressure on them in the out years that a deal with the Phillies would not have forced. They are pretty certain to exceed the cap next year unless they get rid of a big salary or two.

I think I trust Epstein to move some of those players as they are getting expensive and bring back younger guys. I might be totally off but I think we'll still see them churn through their roster when the time is right.

[allentown]

That will be the big test, won't it. Does the team repeat 2012/2013/2014 or does it take the more analytically justified approach? I think the owners have controlled this in past years, selling the nostalgia of fading stars and refusing to rebuild.

[Austinfan]

Depends on the circumstances.
Darvish is a good bet to produce for two years, after that the odds go down considerably, but he may be an expensive back of the rotation guy for the rest of his contract.

Arrieta is a good bet to be a #3/#4 this summer and out of baseball in three years.
When you have a two year trend like that for a 31 year old pitcher, odds are the end is nigh.

[bigegypt0417]

That will be the big test, won't it. Does the team repeat 2012/2013/2014 or does it take the more analytically justified approach? I think the owners have controlled this in past years, selling the nostalgia of fading stars and refusing to rebuild.

Agreed.

I think the cubs are aware they will be paying for bad years on this contract but they operate like a big market team that knows it can afford to take those chances.

[zambonir]

The Cubs have already shown a willingess to let their free agents go and I think it's understood they will eventually have to trade one member of their younger core. Clearly the Heyward and Lester deals did not deter them from giving out another one.

[bigegypt0417]

The Cubs have already shown a willingess to let their free agents go and I think it's understood they will eventually have to trade one member of their younger core. Clearly the Heyward and Lester deals did not deter them from giving out another one.

They operate like a team that knows it can spend money and not be hamstrung.

[Austinfan]

The Cubs operate like a team that knows it's got a legitimate shot at getting back to the World Series.

[bigegypt0417]

The Cubs operate like a team that knows it's got a legitimate shot at getting back to the World Series.

and can spend money and not be hamstrung. it's not like they're making these moves for the first time.

[andyb]

The Cubs were willing to invest around their core with Lester though. The Phillies have made a small move with Santana but have not really addressed their lack of starting pitching depth.

[zambonir]

The Cubs/Lester analogy is certainly fair. They had three losing seasons under Theo, signed Lester in Year 4 and went from 73 to 97 wins. But this is only Klentak's third season and the Cubs had both more veterans (especially in the rotation) and more advanced young hitting talent.

And now, after just two seasons, Lester was a mere 1.0 pitcher (BBRef), and they've had to continually acquire veteran starters. If anything, the lesson of the Cubs is that when you are ready, or if you have to give up on your young arms when they don't pan out, it's not that hard to get what you need. They've added three proven starters (Quintana, Chatwood, Darvish) just in the last half-year (ish), and in 2016 they went for Lackey.

[andyb]

The Cubs/Lester analogy is certainly fair. They had three losing seasons under Theo, signed Lester in Year 4 and went from 73 to 97 wins. But this is only Klentak's third season and the Cubs had both more veterans (especially in the rotation) and more advanced young hitting talent.

And now, after just two seasons, Lester was a mere 1.0 pitcher (BBRef), and they've had to continually acquire veteran starters. If anything, the lesson of the Cubs is that when you are ready, or if you have to give up on your young arms when they don't pan out, it's not that hard to get what you need. They've added three proven starters (Quintana, Chatwood, Darvish) just in the last half-year (ish), and in 2016 they went for Lackey.

No question the Cubs are smart. And free agent moves are always risky. Of course they never let their payroll slip below $92 million and we are sitting at $63 million. While they had more potential starts in their young core, the Phillies probably have more depth in their young core especially as we move Crawford and Alfaro and others into the starting lineup.

If the Phillies only add a nominal arm and end up spending $70 or $80 million (with 4 years of inflation after the Cubs spent $93 million) then they are leaving wins on the table.

And why does everyone think a move is OK for the Cubs because of course the Cubs will make smart moves to trade older players to clear room for younger players. Can't the Phillies walk and chew gum also?

[nycphils]

I’m hoping this deal adds sufficient dead money potential that it constrains them from beating us out for Harper or Machado - almost certainly it doesn’t, but never know since they have Heyward on the books through 2023(!) at $21/$22m per season, now Darvish around the same through 2023 assuming no opt out, and Kris Bryant, Russell, Schwarber and Baez year to year thus far through 2022

[zambonir]

If the Phillies only add a nominal arm and end up spending $70 or $80 million (with 4 years of inflation after the Cubs spent $93 million) then they are leaving wins on the table.

And why does everyone think a move is OK for the Cubs because of course the Cubs will make smart moves to trade older players to clear room for younger players. Can't the Phillies walk and chew gum also?

Agreed, but the players still have to want to sign. I'm not gonna fault the Phillies for not outbidding the Cubs to whatever point it would have taken to actually get Darvish in the fold. Ditto Arrieta, who's still hoping for a bigger deal than Darvish got. What worked for Santana wasn't going to work for them (just like it wouldn't have for Hosmer or Martinez).

Could it work for Cobb or Lynn? Maybe, but I'm not sure either of them are worth it if it means the max length/asking price. We'll see where the market goes now.

[andyb]

Phillies one of the teams talking to Tony Watson.

Jon Heyman (JonHeyman)

His initial contract prediction was 2/12. Seems about right. Boras client.

[California_Dreamin]

While many are convinced that the Phils should stay as far away from Jake Arrieta as possible, I am not one of them and think he would be a solid addition to the club on a 2-3 year deal. And I think there is a deal to be done between the Phils and Scott Boras and this is how I might approach it.

Many on this site believe the Phils should target not just one starting pitcher but two...and here is a way it could be done swiftly. Scott Boras represents Jake Arrieta, a pitcher in at least decent demand, and also Jeremy Hellickson, a pitcher in almost no demand, but a guy who did pretty well in his time with the Phils. He also liked it in Philadelphia and by all accounts was a good teammate and leader in the clubhouse.

The Phils could approach Boras with an offer to sign both pitchers, Arrieta to a 2-3 year deal for something like an AAV of say 22-24 million and give Hellickson a contract with a low salary but higher potential deal, depending on his performance.

Boras is a very wily agent but he does have an obligation to get his players on the field and this would take care of two of his clients, both of whom have ties to McPhail/Klentak.

This also could lead to Boras seeing the Phillies as potentially the new Washington Nationals, a team he has formed a very mutually beneficial relationship. Might not pay off when Harper becomes a free agent...but it might.

Is this risky? Sure. But is it bold? Absolutely. And what was Kapler preaching today in his press conference? To be bold! Talk is cheap but this would certainly show the team that this will not simply be talk...but act.

I think it could work.

[zambonir]

Who are you and what have you done to CD?

I was thinking about Hellickson the other day, though I'm not sure the Phillies really need two pitchers, and even Ben Lively or Mark Leiter might be able to outpitch Hellickson this year.

I just don't think Arrieta is going to have trouble getting his four-five year deal, the hold-up right now is that he and Boras want six, and more $ than Darvish. If he takes a two-year deal it will probably be with a better team.

It would also be unethical for Boras to steer Arrieta towards a lesser deal just because one of his other clients is also in the mix. Not saying these things don't happen in a wink-wink sort of way, but in the end, this probably won't be necessary for either of these players to get signed. I'm also not sure Boras really feels an obligation to get his players on the field (though that's questionable ethically as well). The way things are right now he is certainly poised to keep these players unsigned past 2/24 if he really wants to. Remember 2013, when Kyle Lohse (who had a QO attached) didn't sign until the end of March?

[Austinfan]

I don't want Arrieta. Period. Damaged goods.
Unless you can get him to sign an incentive laden 2 year deal.
Or a 1 year "show the world your arm won't fall off" deal.

I'd be happy with Cobb and Lynn on a 3 year deal at a reasonable price, if Darvish got $21M, they should sign for $15M or so. The third rd pick and loss of LA allotment would hurt but we could live with it.

I'd also be happy to go with a very deep bullpen and a bunch of young arms throwing 5 innings a night until a few emerged. I think you need to go 8--10 deep between ML and AAA in replacement or above b/c injuries happen.
I don't really care about 75 v 81 v 86 wins, this summer is more about finding what they have.
And I'm curious to see if Kapler can change how they develop players in a positive way.

[andyb]

86 wins is competing for the wild card. If you could do that without sacrificing any of the future why wouldn't you want that? Fans care too. Baseball has a big problem if every year there are 12 teams that decide not to compete. No reason the Phillies should be completely in that group given their financial resources (and lack of quality starting pitching).