2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[zambonir]

Agree or disagree, in both cases - but especially w/ Galvis - I think the Phillies simply value having him on the team more than he is worth to other teams.

And they might not be wrong. I definitely think the value of Hellickson's IPs plus the return they got for him likely equalled or exceeded the value of what they would have gotten for him in 2016, though not the value of the draft pick. And that's still true even though he was only replacement level, because the Phillies didn't actually have replacement level replacements for him.

Had Crawford not hit the wall in AAA for a while Galvis probably would have been gone. And while the completely aggressive rebuilding GM would have traded him anyway and just played Blanco or Florimon or some other scrub, that obviously wasn't what the team wanted last season.

The "danger" of losing Galvis for nothing is slim at this point because his value is so low. His max value was probably the 2016 trade deadline, not last year. 2017 he didn't really improve much (higher OBP, less power, but former still ridiculously low). Certainly he was not one of three best available SSs (I'm not even sure if one of those guys got traded).

I hope they take whatever they can get for him but with the questions about Franco and the presumed goal of a .500 team this year I think Galvis can add value, so long as he's not the starting SS and is a good team player about the super sub role. If that is anathema to him they should probably trade him. It's not going to bother me in theory if they keep moving Crawford around for three months, I just don't think you do it for Freddy Galvis. But if his value is, say, lower than what the Phillies got for Rollins and higher than what the Phillies got for Utley, it's probably still going to be that in July.

[andyb]

The value of Hellickson though is a little more complicated than that, because we could have used the $17 million we saved to sign somebody else to pick up those innings. Clearly we valued him too highly and did not want to take the Marlins' offer (or something similar to Naylor).

I will say that Galvis does not have too much value now and would be helpful to the team as a sub or 2B in 2017. Of course moving him might help Crawford stop looking over his shoulder and remove any temptation for the team to not play him. That all goes with the logic of moving Galvis last year when his value was somewhat higher. We could have lived with Floriman for a month until Crawford came up in late August or early September.

[zambonir]

Well, that's true. The Phillies botched that part. Though even there, they could have had the pick, spent $ on another pitcher and also gotten a trade return for that pitcher, as opposed to the 2016 trade return and all those things (but not the pick). Also, Hellickson's salary, in and of itself, didn't really stop them from signing another pitcher, though his presence in the rotation plus Buchholtz meant they weren't gonna.

Same thing with Galvis really, a normal team or a tightly-budgeted team with a young SS ready to go could not possibly keep him this season, and any trade would be as much a salary dump as anything, since you don't want to pay your utility IF that kind of money. But the Phillies can afford it, and I do think the potential advantage at the deadine is the fact that they'd also pay the freight. A competent starting SS or reasonably high-end utility player that costs a contender $0 in payroll is more attractive than either of those things for $7 million to any old off-season team.

[Austinfan]

Galvis' value is at it's peak right now, because a full season with a decent OPS says he could start for a good offensive team for a few years.
Few teams have 8 good hitters, so they're happy if Galvis is an adequate hitter who's a plus fielder at a key position.
Now no one is going to break the bank for him, and the Phillies probably have a minimum return without which they'd rather keep him as a utility IF and let him walk.
But it's too early to get antsy about trades or free agency, no one is making serious moves or noise right now.

[andyb]

Galvis has had 2 consecutive 1.3 WAR seasons. His value is probably a bit past his peak since he is more expensive now. Reality is that he has never been that valuable unfortunately. The defense is not good enough to overcome the low OBP which has been his fundamental flaw. And when he tries to hit HRs the OBP goes down further (from 300 to 280) so it does not help him that much.

[zambonir]

a full season with a decent OPS says he could start for a good offensive team for a few years.
Few teams have 8 good hitters, so they're happy if Galvis is an adequate hitter who's a plus fielder at a key position.
But it's too early to get antsy about trades or free agency, no one is making serious moves or noise right now.

What Galvis can do for a few years isn't going to matter much for a team right now. His primary appeal is that you only have to have him for one year, at a very fair price, without any additional cost or risk. I can't imagine he'd forego free agency. He might have for the Phillies.

No need to be antsy but it's been reported the Phillies have turned down offers for both Galvis and Hernandez is all. Certainly that market could improve once the free agent musical chairs start moving. But it also might not. There aren't necessarily that many teams who A) need a SS B) can make the Phillies a good offer and C) can carry Freddy's weak bat, 8 hitter or not. If he's only worth, say, one Top 30 prospect and a throw-in (or allocation) he's probably still worth that in July.

Of course, he might also get you a major leaguer, which would be a different situation.

At this point one does have to wonder if the Phillies will actually replace anyone on the 40 before the Rule V, slow as things are moving.

[Austinfan]

I don't think Galvis will cost an arm and a leg in free agency.
And a top defensive SS has additional value in today's game, shoring up your defense is the best way to get more innings out of your pitching staff and protect your bullpen.

However, he also has value to us while Crawford and Kingery develop, and the multitude of young LA IFs start moving up the ladder.
So there's no reason to give him away, we don't need another 25th-40th prospect, we have plenty.
If we can't get a solid prospect, say a A+ ball pitcher or 3B ranked 10-20th in someone's system, why bother? Just let him play out his contract.
He's not going to garner a bluechip, but he's worth more to us than a fringe prospect.

[zambonir]

I don't think he will either, but all the more reason for him to want to hit the free market. Someone will give him an extra year of security, or extra money instead of years. Sure, any team acquiring him gets the inside track and a chance to evaluate him but I think it's more likely he goes to a team with a SS who is a year away

I agree he has value to the Phillies though. If he made $2 million and had never been the starting SS to begin with, it would be a no-brainer, and since the money doesn't matter, it's really just about the dynamics of the latter.

And honestly, the way the game has changed, his future value might be super-utility rather than SS, since he would easily be one of the best guys in the former category (defensive/middle IF) but is merely average as a SS.

You still trade him for something though, even if it's in August. Unless he's tangibly contributing to a Phillies team that is still playing for something. Neither of those things seem likely, but we shall see.

[EDmuch]

It is depressing to see the only significant recent talk in this thread is about Galvis. I am beginning to become disenchanted with this Front Office. Players are now being singed all around the league, former Braves prospects that are now free agents, pitchers form Japan such as Mikolas. Yet all our FO seems to be doing is filing out the coaching staff.

[bigegypt0417]

It is depressing to see the only significant recent talk in this thread is about Galvis. I am beginning to become disenchanted with this Front Office. Players are now being singed all around the league, former Braves prospects that are now free agents, pitchers form Japan such as Mikolas. Yet all our FO seems to be doing is filing out the coaching staff.

they just signed one of the former braves prospects...like 12 hours ago.

[kmc1019]

I think there's a reality the Phillies are likely to face that we all won't like: Neither Galvis nor Hernandez will bring enough in return for the team to actually want to trade them.

[bigegypt0417]

I think there's a reality the Phillies are likely to face that we all won't like: Neither Galvis nor Hernandez will bring enough in return for the team to actually want to trade them.

Hernandez has much more value than Galvis.

I don't think you can compare the two since Hernandez is in the top half of 2B in baseball. He's an upgrade for many teams.

[EDmuch]

Well if the signing was in the last 12 hours, that would explain why I have not yet heard about it.

[julio]

Well if the signing was in the last 12 hours, that would explain why I have not yet heard about it.

the Gutierrez signing is being discussed in the July 2, 2017 International Signings thread.

[kmc1019]

bigegypt, I agree with you that Galvis and Hernandez have different values. My point was that the Phillies value them higher than what other teams are likely to offer for them.

We love Galvis for his glove and leadership, but no team is giving anything of value for that bat.

Even in the top half of the 2B group, Herandez will not - by himself - command a #3 starting pitcher in return.

[bigegypt0417]

bigegypt, I agree with you that Galvis and Hernandez have different values. My point was that the Phillies value them higher than what other teams are likely to offer for them.

We love Galvis for his glove and leadership, but no team is giving anything of value for that bat.

Even in the top half of the 2B group, Herandez will not - by himself - command a #3 starting pitcher in return.

I don't think we have a clue what the Phillies believe is their value...we are assuming it matches what phans think and I doubt that's accurate.

[saycheese]

I don't think Galvis or Hernandez alone would bring back anything more than an number 5 type starter. I do think though if they were to make a larger deal that either of those players are involved in that they could land a number 3 starter type. I don't think we should be looking for one to one deals, I think we need to package together a few of these guys to get another building block type player. If Cole is available from Pittsburgh I think that is a good fit for Hernandez add in a pitcher or two from the bunch of guys we have between AAA and the MLB roster and maybe they can work something out.

[bigegypt0417]

I don't think Galvis or Hernandez alone would bring back anything more than an number 5 type starter. I do think though if they were to make a larger deal that either of those players are involved in that they could land a number 3 starter type. I don't think we should be looking for one to one deals, I think we need to package together a few of these guys to get another building block type player. If Cole is available from Pittsburgh I think that is a good fit for Hernandez add in a pitcher or two from the bunch of guys we have between AAA and the MLB roster and maybe they can work something out.

I think the error is putting those two players in the same category. Hernandez is above average and controllable for the next 3 seasons?

There is a big difference in their values. Hernandez beings you back a group of prospects with one of them being a pretty good one.

[EDmuch]

I am much more interested in Cole than than a "group of prospects".

[Austinfan]

There haven't been many trades or signings so far, and I don't expect a lot of action for another week or two.
These thing happen in bunches, I'm sure Klentak is talking, but often it comes down to one or two deals or signings, then GMs move to options "B" and "C" and things start rolling.