2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

EDmuch 2017-12-03 19:18:01 UTC #482

Hmmm, Matt Adams non-tendured. Plays first and OF,. Bats left handed. Hmmmmmmmmm.

andyb 2017-12-03 19:40:16 UTC #483

Not interested. We ideally want a LH bat that can play 3B too. Plus Adams in the OF is just going to be bad. Been there, done that. Hoskins in an emergency is enough for me but I'd rather build a bench of players that are acceptable defensively at the positions we want them to play.

allentown 2017-12-03 19:50:56 UTC #484

He is an interesting possibility as a reserve, who hits RHP well and has decent power. With Hoskins able to play some LF, he could get a reasonable number of ABs.

zambonir 2017-12-03 21:52:48 UTC #485

Right, the question is can he find a bigger role on another team. Possibly not as 1B market is glutted.

I think that is why the Phillies might be interested in signing one, simply because it is going to be a cost-efficient source of offensive WAR.

For that reason I also tend to think the Phillies will not try to couple their need for a LH bench bat with their need for an alternative at 3B, because that's a much smaller and offensively deficient pool (unless they want Todd Frazier or something). If they do actually trade Hernandez we shall see but I don't think Galvis is going anywhere, the SS trade market isn't strong - so most likely scenario is they sign a LH 1B and the players we already have are the 3B alternatives (with one of them replaced by Kingery at the deadline).

zambonir 2017-12-04 03:50:04 UTC #486

Rosenthal:

Not surprisingly, the Phillies are drawing interest in their veteran middle infielders—the San Diego Padres are among the clubs that like shortstop Freddy Galvis, and the Los Angeles Angels have maintained their interest in second baseman Cesar Hernandez, according to major league sources.
Galvis, a free agent after next season, would make sense for the Pads, who would prefer a short-term solution at shortstop with several of their top prospects getting closer to the majors. Don Welke, who was instrumental in helping the Phillies sign Galvis out of Venezuela in 2007, is now the Padres’ vice-president of scouting operations.
Hernandez, who has three years of arbitration remaining, is one of a number of second basemen on the Angels’ radar; the list reportedly includes the Detroit Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and free agents Neil Walker and Zack Cozart, as well.

Squire 2017-12-04 13:46:58 UTC #487

The Padres GM is just one of those guys that seems like a total snake, from the violations in his former job to trading injured guys to the Marlins. I'd be very cautious dealing with Preller.

andyb 2017-12-04 14:49:53 UTC #488

Though the other side of the coin is that they did sign a number of expensive international players last year which gives them some depth in the type of high end toolsy prospect who is far away from the majors which might be an ideal return for Galvis. Would prefer that to some random middle reliever. Of course I would triple check the medicals.

Squire 2017-12-04 14:52:23 UTC #489

Agree. I like their system as a trading partner.

andyb 2017-12-04 21:59:50 UTC #490

Fangraphs goes in-depth on the one Japanese starter that the Phillies might have a shot at, Miles Mikolas. He does not miss bats that much but he looks like he can eat innings and be somewhere in the #3/#4 starter range reasonably. The comp in the article is for Ryan Vogelsong but Mikolas has had much more success and is 4 years younger. Vogelsong actually pitched in AAA for a year after he came back and not too effectively (partially with the Phillies) and then went on to be surprisingly good for a couple of years.

Bonus - apparently Mikolas can hit a bit too.

Austinfan 2017-12-04 23:06:33 UTC #491

I mentioned him before, add him and Chatwood, and you have some innings eaters on reasonable deals who can buy time for young arms.
If they pan out great, if not, no big loss.
And on reasonable deals they'd be flippable in July if you're out of contention.

Philsmania 2017-12-05 15:50:05 UTC #492

Per this morning's Inquirer, Kapler spent some quality time with Hoskins and Crawford last week prior to all three being involved with the Holiday Fair tree lighting on Saturday. Hoskins and Crawford really seemed to impress Kapler who believes that both will be leaders in the clubhouse. I wonder if this will affect what happens with Galvis this offseason. Galvis, by contrast, was very much Mack's guy.

andyb 2017-12-05 15:51:45 UTC #493

Not a bad strategy for the manager to make a point to get to know the 2 best young players on the team. Hopefully he is checking in with Nola as well.

Philsmania 2017-12-05 16:34:47 UTC #494

If we end up trading both Galvis and Hernandez this offseason, we may need to somehow get a placeholder for second base before we eventually call up Kingery once the service time clock is no longer a complication..

Squire 2017-12-05 16:35:52 UTC #495

I feel like we need Zolecki to write a story about how great MacPhail's Stadium Improvements are going.

donaldorc 2017-12-05 16:41:40 UTC #496

According to the article, Crawford is buying into Gabe's program. So long as they get speakers for the clubhouse (a touch of snark here--it was sorta added on to the end of the article).

andyb 2017-12-05 17:37:37 UTC #497

They might be able to make due with a combination of Florimon and Valentin (who in an interview says he is 95% recovered from the shoulder injury and stresses that it is his left (non-throwing) shoulder. I think the Puerto Rican league is going to try to have a short 2-week season in early January so we probably get an indication of how he is coming along then. There are lots of reasons to leave Kingery in the minors for a couple of months (poor BB rate last year, Super 2 arbitration mainly). Of course I would give Kingery a chance to win the job in Spring Training if they do trade Cesar and Freddy both.

bigegypt0417 2017-12-05 18:21:29 UTC #498

andyb:

Fangraphs goes in-depth on the one Japanese starter that the Phillies might have a shot at, Miles Mikolas. He does not miss bats that much but he looks like he can eat innings and be somewhere in the #3/#4 starter range reasonably. The comp in the article is for Ryan Vogelsong but Mikolas has had much more success and is 4 years younger. Vogelsong actually pitched in AAA for a year after he came back and not too effectively (partially with the Phillies) and then went on to be surprisingly good for a couple of years.

Bonus - apparently Mikolas can hit a bit too.

fangraphs.com

There’s Another Starting Pitcher Coming Over From Japan | FanGraphs Baseball

Miles Mikolas is no Shohei Ohtani, but then, 29 teams will end up without Shohei …

Signing with the Cardinals

zambonir 2017-12-05 19:05:30 UTC #499

Galvis is gone, we already know this. Just a question of whether it is in the off-season, at the deadline or in October. But he's not gonna get to light any Christmas trees or be on the cover of the media guide. I don't think that reality will affect the clubhouse though.

And if the Phillies are unable to get what they think is good value for him now, they are going to need to keep playing him to get anything better at the deadline, whether it's at SS or all over the field. The latter might end up being the better bet, for trade purposes. A starting SS should be worth more than a super-utility guy but more playoff contenders might need the latter (and the # of teams who would take Galvis for two months of salary, or better yet, the Phillies paying it, is probably higher than the # of teams who would want him now at his full 2018 cost).

allentown 2017-12-05 19:46:01 UTC #500

Keep playing them to build value hasn't been that great a plan in the past. I think the only ways that Galvis brings a bigger return later in 2018 than he does today is 1)the starting SS on a contender is injured, while Galvis is playing about as well as he did in 2017 and 2) Galvis plays significantly better than he did in 2017. Usually, when a GM can't find a 'suitable' return for a player, it is because the GM has inaccurately assessed the value of his player to the high side. Playing Galvis in a utility role may well both increase the number of teams interested in him and reduce his value, because his greatest value is as a plus defensive SS and all the other positions he plays as a utility guy will be lower on the defensive spectrum. The 'I don't have to trade him now' approach doesn't work, because he will get closer and closer to FA, other teams will know that the Phillies don't want Galvis at what he will cost as a utility IF and other teams know the Phillies are already committed to playing Crawford. I suspect Galvis's max value was at the 2017 trade deadline. There is a very real value danger in keeping Galvis into next season: his performance has improved each of the last two season and the odds seem to favor a bit of a regression, given his age.

Philsmania 2017-12-05 20:24:57 UTC #501

allentown:

Keep playing them to build value hasn't been that great a plan in the past. I think the only ways that Galvis brings a bigger return later in 2018 than he does today is 1)the starting SS on a contender is injured, while Galvis is playing about as well as he did in 2017 and 2) Galvis plays significantly better than he did in 2017. Usually, when a GM can't find a 'suitable' return for a player, it is because the GM has inaccurately assessed the value of his player to the high side. Playing Galvis in a utility role may well both increase the number of teams interested in him and reduce his value, because his greatest value is as a plus defensive SS and all the other positions he plays as a utility guy will be lower on the defensive spectrum. The 'I don't have to trade him now' approach doesn't work, because he will get closer and closer to FA, other teams will know that the Phillies don't want Galvis at what he will cost as a utility IF and other teams know the Phillies are already committed to playing Crawford. I suspect Galvis's max value was at the 2017 trade deadline. There is a very real value danger in keeping Galvis into next season: his performance has improved each of the last two season and the odds seem to favor a bit of a regression, given his age.

I agree with this post. The bolded part above is exactly what happened with Hellickson at the 2016 deadline. Nobody saw him as being worth the sandwich pick either in a trade or as free agent signing.