Will Odubel Herrera ever play for the MLB Phillies again?

[tom81]

Inspired by zambonir. This also includes Spring Training games with the MLB Phillies.

• Yes
• No

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[tom81]

At a minimum I think he appears in some road games with the MLB team this spring. I think they want to see if he has anything left that they can salvage some of their sunk cost. I also think it will be a PR plus to be able to say they gave him a chance to get his life back on track.

[julio]

Didn't vote. Why? Because I don't know, and I have no basis for predicting, really - I would just be guessing, and I don't see much point in just guessing. Probably because I just don't see it as very important, one way or the other. I don't have any particular animosity toward Herrera (and thus, I don't strongly desire to never see him again), but don't feel that he's been horribly mistreated either (and thus, I don't strongly desire to see him "made whole" or some such). Add to that, his performance has been sufficiently mediocre that I can't get worked up one way or the other. So I can't vote a preference either, as opposed to a prediction. Whatever.

But hey, your mileage may vary!

[Lawman]

I voted yes, but I think it depends. If they keep him in AAA, and if he reverts to playing well, and Haseley, et. al. playing in CF aren't playing well.....yeah. they'll bring him up. Right?

[andyb]

I also hate speculating simply because there is much we do not know about the incident. If the incident is not that bad I would think it is greater than 50-50 they get some value for Herrera. Maybe a C-level prospect and another team agrees to pay him the major league minimum for the next 2 years with the Phillies paying the rest.

If the incident was bad, then he is already gone and the Phillies are just satisfying the letter of the rules on the timing of releasing him.

[schillingfan]

I don’t think he plays for the Phillies big team, but likely plays for a a few months in the minors. Then his future depends on how well he plays. Releasing him without assigning him to minors means making him an unreclaimable sunk cost. If he plays well in the minors. We may get some thing back. To me there is nothing to be lost and something to be gained by playing him in the minors.

[zambonir]

Well, Andy raises a good point: we don't really know how bad the incident is, and probably never will. Is there back-channel gossip about it that makes him unemployable (even though that is actually against MLB policy), or is he just unemployable because of his combination of performance and salary?

I'm still somewhere in between, which is that the Phillies would simply rather not have an accused abuser on the roster, and it's an easy moral stand to take when he's also not playing well. Because you know they'd still trade for Osuna or Chapman if the opportunity arose. The problem is they literally can't say that's the reason. And there is definitely an argument to be made that he deserves a second chance. I'm just not sure that tying his second chance to the Phillies reclaiming some sunk cost helps him (or the Phillies' PR-wise.

If nothing else, hiding him in Clearwater in case another team suffers a big injury probably makes sense. I'll still be surprised if he's assigned to a minor league affiliate come March 24.

Lindsay Adler wrote a good story about how the MLB's process works.

Privacy, punishment and Domingo Germán: How discipline is...

[phillychuck]

I voted no, but I want the team not to be stupid in terms of recouping some value for him if that is possible. If that involves him playing in MLB, I'm definitely in favor of allowing it, consistent with the "he did his time" principle.

[flyers19rw]

I can see Herrera going down to the minors and playing well which will eventually cause a team to acquire him. The Phillies will pay a large part of his contract but get some cap space relief but nothing else.

[zambonir]

But here's the thing - Nick Williams had a .955 OPS last year. He has minimal trade value, even with options and a low salary.

Phil Gosselin and Sean Rodriguez also had >.900 OPS in AAA last year. They're both getting minor league deals again (Rodriguez not with us, presumably).

I just don't see how Herrera tearing it up in AAA or ST will really make any team think he's worth taking a chance on (and enduring the publicity backlash). Let alone giving the Phillies any meaningful cap relief (they'd get the $550K removed from the AAV if he ends up on another major league team anyway).

If he does get a chance to play for the Phillies this year we've got bigger problems (i.e. Haseley stinks, Quinn is hurt, Kingery has to play 3B because Bohm isn't ready, Williams is still not good).

[Philsmania]

I wonder if the next Basic Agreement will permit teams to void the contracts of these players.

[Squire]

Phillies announce that Odubel Herrera has cleared waivers and been outrighted to AAA. Expectation is that he will be in minor league camp.

[Jazzhead]

Doobie's in the prime of his career (age 28); it would be nuts not to see what he's got left in the tank. Unlike Williams, he plays a skill position (CF), and even played second when he was in the Texas organization. Maybe a stint in AAA with time at second could enhance his value, either to us or as trade bait. It all depends on his attitude, and will to overcome the obstacles in his path. He was an All-Star once, he can be an All-Star again.

[zambonir]

I see him more as Franco (who is younger). And Dom Brown was an all-star too. Sometimes guys just don't seem to have what it takes to find their game again, whether it's mental, physical or the league figuring them out.

Also, 27 is considered peak/prime. It's all downhill from there even if your next 4 years are still high-quality. Which is fine if you are starting at Bryce Harper's peak. But Herrera has put up a worse OPS+ and BA every year of his career. After two years of replacement level performance, and what will end up being a full year or more without facing a major league pitch, even his bounce-back threshold probably isn't very high.

Playing 2B won't enhance his value as 2B has become the least-scarce position in baseball. He could probably be a 5th OF or utility player for someone, with that tantalizing fantasy that he'll put it together, but such a player still has no trade value even w/o the money/baggage. That his defensive game also seemed to completely go away is the real reason why his Phillies career is over. Functionally, he may no longer be an everyday CF, or even a primary back-up.

Thing is, he needs to be playing in the majors or at least playing in AAA every day and that's not going to happen with the Phillies.

I do hope he finds his way, he was easily my favorite player (not that there was much competition before last year). Don't approve of what he did but also was on his side against all the managerial/fan/radio criticism before that.

[VoteForKalas]

Doobie's in the prime of his career (age 28); it would be nuts not to see what he's got left in the tank

Agree, it would be a massive waste to just let him rot in the minors and then release him

Yes, he made a serious mistake, but he has paid a price for that and done all asked of him without any further incident.

[donaldorc]

Agree, it would be a massive waste to just let him rot in the minors and then release him

Yes, he made a serious mistake, but he has paid a price for that and done all asked of him without any further incident.

Do agree!

[zambonir]

At the end of the day, separate from the domestic violence policy, this all turns on the fantasy that he'll be a useful player again, and on the fact that he's a sunk cost. But minus the arrest he's still Mark Appel or Cody Asche or Dom Brown (but more expensive). The high salary allows the Phillies to keep him without using 40-man space but at the end of the day he probably is in fact going to rot in the minors, just like Rusney Castillo but with less playing time. We're never going to get any truly useful return for him (which is not separate from the DV incident).

Imagine if the arrest never happened and he'd still finished last season with a .640 OPS? We'd be unamused if he still got to be on the major league team just because he made so much money and was unmoveable. We'd want him to be optioned, if not released. But at least then he'd get to go to major league spring training and try and show something there, and might get more playing time if he did go to AAA.

There's no way Klentak can say with a straight face that Herrera isn't invited to spring training for baseball reasons. But Herrera's clearly not inclined to protest. I'm still not buying it personally, this is just them saying the right things before another shoe drops on February 21 (if not before).

[andyb]

It is a little strong to say it is a fantasy that he could be a useful player. 2019 was a disaster of course. He was still useful offensively in 2018 even if his defense was poor. This is not a 35-year-old player with no chance to be useful. He is still in his prime and we will see if this lights a fire in him to get in shape and save his career. I'd say it is at least 50-50 that he is a useful bench player in the future if not even better odds than that. We spent a season trotting out guys like Gosselin and Rodriguez in the outfield. He is our 3rd best option in CF now and the two in front of him (Haseley and Quinn) are both uncertain bets to be decent themselves.

[tom81]

But minus the arrest he's still Mark Appel or Cody Asche or Dom Brown (but more expensive).

In what baseball universe is he the same as those three? Herrera has had success at the MLB level, over 10 bWAR in his career and two seasons of 4 bWAR. Those three have not. Appel never made it, Asche accumulated -2.3 bWAR with his highest being +0.6, and Brown at -0.1 for his career and only 1 positive year, that being =2.8 bWAR. If Herrera is only half as good as his 2 best years he still may be able to help this or another team.

[zambonir]

He had more success, sure. I just don't see his career trending back up. Even the 2018 Herrera was below-average offensively (94 OPS+) and didn't compensate with defense.

Sure, if you could actually throw him out there every day in the big leagues you'd at least get to find out, but there's little reason to think the player we saw the last two seasons, with 4 months of not playing baseball to boot, will ever be what he was when he was 25. Just like Franco and Hernandez.

Kingery is our third-best option in CF, if Haseley got hurt that is what they would do, and if Quinn got hurt he'd probably turn up there once or twice a week too. And they'd absolutely put another utility guy out there (whether at 3B or CF) before considering Herrera. Probably two (i.e. they will call up Martini, assuming he's not already on the 26).

Sean Rodriguez in 2019 was not demonstrably worse than Herrera in 2018 (especially with that .348 OBP). Maybe Herrera (like Rodriguez and Miller) would do better in a platoon/bench role too but with Williams also in the mix he won't get that chance (should Bruce be injured) either.

Ironically, Herrera's career is (potentially) ending as a mirror-image of how it began. He broke out with the Phillies because the rules granted him a certain opportunity if he wasn't on the Rangers' 40. Now he will be unable to pursue any opportunities because the Phillies are paying him $20 million to not be on their 40.

I like the guy and would like to see him put it together (assuming he's not a truly toxic person), but that's only going to happen, IMO, if the Phillies release him, not if they keep him around as their 5th-string CF in hopes of getting some team to buy him from us for $2 million.