Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[allentown]

Didi and Segura are on the wrong side of 30

I don't recall anyone suggesting that we re-up Segura and most of our comments on DiDi have been to give him a QO, but not a 3-year deal, so your argument is really a red herring. The issue is how much/how long a deal to offer JT, after we give him a QO. I'd give him 4 years gladly, would consider 5, and wouldn't do 6. I'm reconciled that he will be elsewhere next season. I'm puzzled why you would even mention the possibility of exceeding the lux tax threshold in 2021. We all know that isn't going to happen -- Middleton couldn't have been any clearer about that. A lot of salaries off the books between now and 2022. I doubt the Phillies would do it, but they can well afford to add another big contract in 2022 and likely get a much better deal if they do so this winter, while thee is still doubt about baseball's finances in 2021, including how many fans will be allowed into the stadia.

[andyb]

There are situations where a 3-year deal for Didi would make sense. We really don't have any other SS for the next few years and we are unsure of whether Stott will remain there (the only option potentially within 3 years).

Now he should not get $18.9 million for 3 years. But what if the range were $35 to $40 million? All 3 top options on the market (Didi, Simmons, Semien) probably get in that $10 to $14 million a year range for 2 or 3 years. I kind of like seeing if the Korean kid might be a bargain at more like $8-$10 million a year (advantage that the posting fee does not factor into AAV). I just have not seen enough serious scouting reports to know if he is an option.

We are a bad defensive team. We should not go into 2021 with Segura and Kingery as our only options at SS. I'd rather sign Freddy for 1 year and $4-$5 million if it came to that.

[andyb]

Probably time to rename this thread "2020-2021 Offseason Phillies News"

MLBTR has several arbitration estimates for eligible players:
Seranthony Dominguez – $900K / $900K / $900K
Zach Eflin – $3.3MM / $5.5MM / $3.7MM
Rhys Hoskins – $3.4MM / $5.5MM / $3.4MM
Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.0MM
Adam Morgan – $1.8MM / $2.0MM / $1.7MM
Vince Velasquez – $3.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.0MM
Heath Hembree – $1.9MM / $2.2MM / $1.8MM

Eflin, Hoskins, and Knapp seem definite. I'd probably keep Seranthony even though that is a sunk cost. He would not get much of a raise in 2021. Morgan and Velasquez are unlikely though I would not dismiss them renegotiating lower priced deals. Hembree seems like someone they would let go even though that is not an unreasonable price for his track record.

[flyers19rw]

It’s all speculation but the market for the Phillies’ FAs may not be what some see it. The SS position has several options that have similar value. The probability of there being a hot competition for any of them could be slim. There will most likely see some musical chairs being played with them but it doesn’t look like a crazy bidding war will take place for them.
Realmuto’s situation is different. There will be suitors but the question will be whether it becomes a robust competition by clubs for his services. The Yankees have other players that need to be addressed starting with Lemahieu. They also need SP. Although JT would be a nice addition for them, they’ll probably spend money at other positions. The Mets are out there to add him but again their greatest need is SP. Big money for Bauer makes more sense for them. Unless the Phillies have completely turned off Realmuto, the best all around offer probably still will be the one that they offer. The Phillies aren’t the only ones who understand the issues with signing a player like him at his age.
The elephant in the room is the cash that clubs have available to spend. The revenue stream that has been curtailed by COVID-19 hits all clubs not just the Phillies. Add to that the fact that 2022 is a season that may well be in jeopardy and become a further revenue constricting matter. It just seems to me that this FA off season may end up being totally different from what has been the norm in the past. I just don’t see a lot of money flying around for FAs.

[andyb]

That is pretty much why I think that dropping the salary level to $180 or $190 million and spreading the savings of not signing JT or Didi if they refuse the QO is not worse strategy.

There could be a bunch of players who will take 1-year deals with incentives this offseason. You are right that one of the top SS candidates could drop if nobody offered money. I'd say it is at least 50-50 that Didi would accept the QO and understand why no team wants to give him $50-$70 million in this market over 3 or 4 years.

It will be interesting to see if the players accept some sort of escrow options for seasons without fans. While the players had the better argument in the short term pandemic last year (and 60-80 game seasons with full playoffs did preserve much of MLB's cash flow), the owners have a better argument if we are faced with a 162-game season. Baseball players might be better off accepting some sort of 20%-30% escrow cut with no fans because that would make teams more open to offering full price contracts (with a little revenue hedge built in).

[zambonir]

We are a bad defensive team. We should not go into 2021 with Segura and Kingery as our only options at SS. I'd rather sign Freddy for 1 year and $4-$5 million if it came to that.

And I would do that, if JT is back. If not, it's easier to find some offense at SS than C, and you bring back Didi or consider Semien as a bounce-back candidate.

[Austinfan]

Here's why I think it's buyer beware with JT:

RC+ from 25-29: 111, 107, 126, 108, 125, but he was declining this season after a hot start, doubt he'd finish that well. So 30-34? Probably in the 100-110 range. Outstanding defense is the key to his value, but how long can he maintain that high of a level of performance. Which raises the other question, how many games can he catch per year? At DH or 1B, 110 RC+ ain't worth that much.

Rest of the lineup:

Didi had a nice bounceback, I'd be happy to pay him his QO, but I don't think he's going to be an average fielding SS in 2-3 years, and as his fielding declines, he'll probably be a 1-2 WAR player.

Segura is interesting, his BB rate went way up, fluke or coaching? So did his Ks and ISO, almost like he was being taught to look for his pitch and drive it instead of swinging early. Not sure he's a SS anymore, but he can be a plus 2B and 3B defensively where the loss of a little quickness is less of an issue.

Hoskins is a tough decision in terms of contract, is the DH permanent in the NL? Because he hasn't improved defensively, and it's hard to pay big money to a 28 year old hitter who seems to have peaked offensively but is a liability defensively even at 1B.

Knapp is another tough one, really improved offensively but a short sample, average defensively, at 29 still has three controllable seasons, could just lock him up with an relatively low cost deal to back up JT if resigned or Marchan in two years.

Quinn - he'll be 27, regressed as a hitter, SSS both years but hard to see him as a starter.

Haseley - same basic offense as last year in much smaller sample, defense was down, will be 25.

Cutch???
Kingery - I'd write this year off due to COVID, never really was 100% until the end when his swing got quicker.

[bigegypt0417]

I'm trying not to be extreme but if you let JT walk then it may be a good time to see what you can get for a player like Aaron Nola and others if possible.

Nola is relatively cheap and should bring back a significant group of prospects since he's signed for the next 3 years.

I just think any plan where we're 3 more years out wastes the value you have in Nola.

[zambonir]

I don't think that decision turns on JT per se. If you think this group is good enough to win with JT and Didi, losing them - assuming some effort and $ goes towards replacing them - doesn't change that.

You just have to buy the story the team has told about itself, that last year's team could have won 90 without injuries, and that this year's new players plus Joe were let down by an epically bad bullpen. But the team didn't get notably better by adding JT, and it didn't get notably better by adding Wheeler and Didi, so it also won't get notably worse. You lose a little bit of WAR, but you don't go from like, +4 to -2, unless you make really bad decisions.

If you don't buy that story there's no point in even trying to sign JT, and yeah, a really savyy and aggressively rebuilding front office would get out ahead of things. But then you pretty much would have to trade Harper (or he really would demand it). Neither he nor Girardi are signed up for a three-year rebuild. A one-year reset, yes, 2-3 years of trying to win that ultimately fails, well, they don't really have a choice.

To let Ned Rice and Andy Macphail and the current pro scouting department trade Nola would also be less than ideal.

[bigegypt0417]

I don't think that decision turns on JT per se. If you think this group is good enough to win with JT and Didi, losing them - assuming some effort and $ goes towards replacing them - doesn't change that.

What do you replace JT with?

What do you replace Didi with?

the amount of money you need to replace them and also upgrade the bullpen seems like alot.

I'm just trying to understand how you let them walk, replace them and upgrade and you're better than the braves? Are you honestly a contender in the NL with what could be a full season and the standard playoff format?

[Austinfan]

Question is are you a contender with them?
80-85 wins won't get it done.
Then in two years, you have nothing.

[bigegypt0417]

Question is are you a contender with them?
80-85 wins won't get it done.
Then in two years, you have nothing.

I mean...the team you build is always an 80-85 win team...if that.

[zambonir]

Not every player has to be expensive, or a big-name. This is where a GM - if we had one - makes his money. Trades, smart free agent signings, uncovering diamonds in the rough. We could have won as many games this year with Corey Dickerson as Cutch (and he wasn't that good either). We could have won as many games keeping Cesar and platooning Segura with a defensive back-up SS. And yet, obviously, that approach did not work at all for the bullpen.

If you lose JT you sign a veteran catcher, bring back Didi, and add a little more offense to the OF and the bench. Or go with that same SS combo suggested above but go big on an OF.

With or without those guys, if Kingery doesn't bounce back, if Cutch is done, if Hoskins struggles, if Segura declines, they're in trouble anyway, so yeah, the big rebuild is definitely an option. But so is doing it on the fly.

Interesting note in that JT article from the Athletic: nine players who were 33 or older played more than 80 games at catcher last year. Zero players 33 or older played shortstop. Didi would be 33 in the third year of his next contract. Segura turns 33 the same year but he'll be gone by then.

[Austinfan]

Catchers can play well into their 30s, but how well do they hit?
SS is a speed/quickness position, same with CF, you want young legs at those spots.

[zambonir]

Chooch had a 149 OPS+ when he was 33. He appeared in 110 games and still had a 101 OPS + at 35 (his age 34 season was not as good). Molina was still an All-Star, even if it was name recognition, at 34 and 35 (his bat had begun to decline for sure but was adequate).

You are gambling that JT is an elite specimen. But it's also a given he won't be worth the last year or two of his deal. If the team goes into rebuild sooner than expected it won't be their problem (except for maybe picking up a few $) and if it doesn't, he will have been worth it.

[andyb]

I'm trying not to be extreme but if you let JT walk then it may be a good time to see what you can get for a player like Aaron Nola and others if possible.

Not signing JT is nowhere near the decision to do a full rebuild where Nola would probably be our most significant trade asset. If you don't sign JT you get a $4 million catcher, a $15 million 3rd starter, and a $7 million reliever (or something like that). Those moves would improve the team potentially more than you would get with just JT.

We traded for JT for 2 years to compete immediately. That trade was a failure because we did not make the playoffs. Whether we compete in the future is completely independent of whether we should sign JT. There are still paths to do so. The best paths probably involve not signing JT UNLESS the team exceeds the luxury tax line. If they don't do that, you probably let JT go and compete on value rather than stars.

[bigegypt0417]

That's not enough to make us actually better...we are 2 or 3 relievers short and then you need a catcher and you still need more.

If that is your plan, at least see what Nola can bring back. He should get you a top prospect plus others.

[jimglitto]

This was a great offensive team for most of the abbreviated 2020 season. I can personally count 7 games not just blown by the bullpen, but DESTROYED by the bullpen. I’m not talking about one run leads that any bullpen can blow on occasion, but 4, 5, 6, 7 run leads routinely blown. This WAS an historically bad bullpen. Yet the offense never let up (at least until the final week when it was depleted). A below average bullpen would have easily won second place and a playoff berth. A good one who knows? No, it is not time to blow it up & rebuild. It’s time to get healthy, resign JT and find some decent arms in the pen. And if we can’t sign Realmuto, spend that money somewhere else. But not another rebuild. We’re not Oakland.

[flyers19rw]

If you’re going to let Didi go, who is your replacement? Simmonds? Possibly an even switch. Galvis? A downgrade.
The same goes with Realmuto. Who is the replacement? Knapp? A downgrade and so is every other catcher on the FA market.
It’s fine to say let’s let go of this or that player but who is the replacement? The club has some weaknesses in the lineup both in the field and at bat. No one has shown that they are a CF at playing at a regular level. The ones out there do not hit and with power to compensate for the losses that would come with moving off from Gregorius or a Realmuto. The mess that is the BP can be rectified by some of the present guys on the roster and some judicious FA additions providing that some one other than the talent evaluators from this past season make the calls.

[zambonir]

That's not enough to make us actually better...we are 2 or 3 relievers short and then you need a catcher and you still need more.

Andy's idea already included the catcher, and 1 high-end reliever. We're not getting 2 or 3 relievers of any true impact/cost whether we sign JT or not. Sign Didi and it would be hard to add a starting pitcher.

If you’re going to let Didi go, who is your replacement? Simmonds? Possibly an even switch. Galvis? A downgrade.
The same goes with Realmuto. Who is the replacement? Knapp? A downgrade and so is every other catcher on the FA market.

If you sign Galvis and Trevor Bauer you just made your team better than if you signed Didi and Velasquez is your #4 starter. If you sign a veteran catcher with good defense you can upgrade LF/CF with a much better player than if you are paying JT. Still better to pay JT, but it's not the only way to build a roster. There are obviously a whole lot of other types of catchers out there in major league baseball, two to three dozen of whom helped their teams get to the playoffs this year.

As bad as the bullpen was you can't just sweep everyone out. Unless we are aggressive about the non-tenders and non-options, 75% of the bullpen will be guys from this season, and the biggest difference in the pen's performance will likely be luck and sample size. The best option is still to get one guy who is better than Neris or Phelps, but also keep Neris and Phelps, and hopefully sign Alvarez. You might not bring back Hembree, Parker, Hale or Hunter in the middle, but you won't be upgrading over them either. Figure Suarez is still a good option. If Arano isn't it's time to get him off the 40. Robertson on a minor league deal. Morgan can't be counted on either way. The rest will still come from the farm or minor league deals unless you just sign a few more Hembree/Hunter types to cheap guaranteed deals.