Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[bigegypt0417]

Sounds like the phillies signed Matt Joyce to a minor league deal.

[zambonir]

Dombrowski had a press conference I guess. Various tweets also said they are still in touch with Parker and Alvarez (for minor league deals if they can't do better) and haven't decided about inviting Herrera to ST.

Where the payroll would get interesting now is if the team is actually good. Would they exceed the CBT with a legit chance at the division title and a shot at LA (or San Diego)?

[Taudawg]

Starting to show up in news - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/phillies-sign-matt-joyce.html

[andyb]

Joyce is not awful as he knows the strike zone and is not far removed from his power (playing in Miami may not have helped there). I still would prefer someone better. Miller is more versatile and probably better defensively. Assume there will be competition for that last bench spot so there may be another signing coming.

And remember each team needs a fairly good alternate site squad in case of COVID outbreaks.

I don't think they intend to exceed the CBT threshold, but remember they are still over $15 million under and even if that is closer to $10 million, they could still add an expensive player or player because the likely trade for that player would be in midseason or later.

[zambonir]

Which Players Will Have The Largest Change In Performance In 2021?

MLBTR notes that Fangraphs projects Wheeler and Eflin to both drop off significantly this year. Not that they are going to be terrible, but that the WAR they put up last year over 60 games won't translate at the same level over 162.

I reckon the same is going to be true of Didi and Segura though they don't crack the Top 20

[andyb]

Eflin had a good strikeout rate for the first time ever. That doesn't necessarily mean regression if the change is real and due to better secondary pitches. It will be interesting to see if he can continue it. He threw more pitches per inning with that approach so he is probably a bit less likely to easily go deep in games.

I actually feel better about Wheeler not regressing. I think his results were better than his K rate. But that was more a conscious effort to get easy outs rather than his stuff and velocity which were fine.

[zambonir]

I just think it's easy to forget - at least for me personally - how weird last season was, and that the WAR #s in particular were truncated.

So Segura, for instance, put up a respectable 1.0 Fangraphs WAR in 54 games last year, an improvement over his full-season 2.4 (albeit at a different position) in 2019, but ZIPS has him at 1.5 this year.

Didi's 1.4 in 60 games was as good as his 4+ WARs in 2017 and 2018, but ZIPs projects 2.3.

Obviously it is up to the players in the end. And I think the short season makes it easier for the projections to understate.

But the narrative of, "we have a great line-up and rotation returning, they just need a better bullpen" won't necessary play out simply. Conversely, if Kingery and Haseley can just do what they did in 2019 (over a full season in Haseley's case) and Bohm can raise it another notch, then the team is actually improved without adding new talent to the line-up.

[DurhamBull]

and Bohm can raise it another notch

He hit .338 with an .881 OPS last season. If he can best that he'll be in Mike Schmidt territory! I'd be delighted if he can simply maintain that production. I think a sophomore slump is a solid possibility though.

[zambonir]

Well, just doing it over 162 games would be raising it a notch. Or more home runs, though that could come at the expense of his OBP/BA. I agree there are bound to be some valleys.

[Austinfan]

Bohm is actually a guy I'd bet on, he's a pure hitter, not just a power guy like Hoskins and Harper, but makes consistent contact, uses the whole field, has good plate discipline. As he fills out he'll add more power, just hope they don't ruin him by trying to get him to hit for power instead of letting it develop naturally - I mean he's got 400' power to the gaps, that was good enough for Aaron.

[zambonir]

Are you talking about Bryce Harper?

[andyb]

Rice gets a 2-year extension. Seems like he is in charge of second tier transactions. Waiver claims. Negotiating lots of the contracts in the last month including Didi. Of course DD has gotten rid of all of Rice's waiver claims when he was in charge.

Phillies assistant GM Ned Rice gets two-year extension, source says

[Taudawg]

Odubel Herrera mentions are on the rise again after yesterday's Zoom call.

Bob Brookover piece today -

"A team source indicated that the final decision on whether Herrera receives an invitation to camp is in the hands of managing partner John Middleton. Another source indicated that the Phillies are leaning toward inviting Herrera."

Phillies’ battle for center-field job should include Odubel Herrera | Bob...

[andyb]

I think it's safe to say the Marlins were offering $1.5-2 million at most.

Looks like the Marlins were offering $2 million compared to the Phillies' $3 million plus incentives.

Joyce would also get $1.5 million plus incentives. Seems pretty clear we are offering a little more on the major league side on our minor league offers. Looks like it is helping to get who they want, though Brad Miller would be a little more expensive. The 40-man roster is probably out of easy deletions (Llovera next?).

[Austinfan]

Yeah, Harper as a hitter is similar to Hoskins, both have high K rates and can be inconsistent making contact, when they're on, they can be awesome, but when they're off, it can be ugly for stretches.

Bohm just looks like a guy who's gonna be a tough out every PA. I just worry they'll try to change his approach to generate more power, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

[allentown]

You're talking about Bryce Harper of the career 138 OPS+ and 34 rWAR over 9 seasons, one of the premiere hitters in baseball? His Ks (well under 25% of plate appearances) are a big problem, despite having more walks (best in league) than Ks last season are somehow a huge problem. Btw, Bohm had a similar K rate, but a lot lower BB rate last season and also lower (but still excellent) OPS+. You write like the fans for whom the higher paid Phillies (Scmidt, Rolen, Abreu) were never good enough or outright bums, despite being HOF or marginal HOF candidate players. If Hoskins even sniffs at the career that Harper is having the Phillies will be extremely and unexpectedly fortunate.

[zambonir]

Seems to me they have really just stopped caring about the spirit of the domestic violence policy, which says he served his punishment, went through the program and should only be evalutated for baseball reasons. And if he can be in minor league camp (as he was last year) or assigned to a minor league team (as he would be this year unless they kept him in extended limbo) the only reason to care about him having a major league invite is PR optics (including that the games are sometimes televised). The owner shouldn't get to make an additional evaluation of his character (though ironically he's free to do that about any player who isn't subject to that joint agreement).

I imagine they are operating in a grey area where if you think a guy is "bad in the locker room" that's a baseball issue. And of course he gets paid either way.

I think it is largely irrelevant to his chances of getting any real playing time or ever returning to the 26-man but if they are willing to send him to Allentown there's no reason not to let him prepare at the highest level. They're probably afraid he'll do well though - which wouldn't necessarily mean a thing - just look at Scott Kingery - but would increase the drumbeat, as seen in columns like Brookover's, which are still tone-deaf.

[Austinfan]

Woah, I was just talking about style of hitting.

Bohm is more of a line drive contact guy who uses the whole field, but has solid power (think say Pujols as a model) v the high K, high BB, high power hitters like Hoskins and Harper.

Bohm's K rate jumped in the majors, but he was also jumping from AA to the majors - once he gets comfortable I expect it to drop.

Harper had his lowest K rate last year, but it was 24 and 26% the previous two years - now if the new hitting coach can get him to focus more on contact and using the whole field, that drop might be sustainable, but he tends to fall into stretches where he starts swinging from the heels, and gets seduced by 450' HRs.

[andyb]

Or maybe we want Harper and Hoskins to hit home runs. Their high walk rate is not just due to them having a good idea of the strike zone. It is because pitchers avoid throwing them strikes that they might hit for home runs.

Bohm IS different. He has less power and a more all-fields approach. He'll grow into some more power but that is not his primary strength.

Sometimes hitters have different skills. We should not necessarily change them into a cookie cutter approach. Power was important to Jimmy Rollins and it is crucial for both Harper and Hoskins. Harper is a better hitter than Hoskins and can do more things at the plate, but I still want to see him go deep because that is what he is good at and that makes him draw all the walks. That does not mean he can't have a 2-strike approach also, which is part of why his K rate decreased last season.

[Austinfan]

Exactly, you don't want Harper to be Bohm, you want him to be a better Harper.

So you want him to pull the ball, but also recognize when a pitcher is nibbling the outer part of the plate and trust his power to take it out in the LCF alley instead of trying to pull it and turn it over and a weak GB to 2B.

In the same way you want Bohm to keep his approach, not try to be a 40 HR guy but spray the ball with good power and put up 80 xBHs with say 20-25 HRs and a .300+ BA and .400+ OBP.