Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

zambonir 2020-10-10 18:01:11 UTC #102

This is a really bleak overview. They likely can't afford both Didi and JT, even if they non-tender almost everyone. And if JT stays on the market for a while it will keep them from making other moves.

IMO there's no way anyone other than Ned Rice will be in charge before spring training. They're not saying this part out loud, but they clearly don't want to add a bunch of front office salaries before MacPhail is done (and they'll still be paying Klentak and all the current assistant GMs in 2022).

Kind of amazing to me that you're allowed to non-tender injured players, as they should be paid an in the team's care until they recover from their injury. Of course it also doesn't makes sense for them to get arbitration raises. You'd think it could all just be factored in.

julio 2020-10-10 21:35:33 UTC #103

Until they recover? Regardless of how long that is? Matt Imhof for the rest of his life?

I mean, I know that’s not what you intended; so what did you mean?

Lucky_Beagle 2020-10-10 22:25:46 UTC #104

This is one example as to why it is sometimes in the players best interest to take a guaranteed contract for a couple of years as opposed to basically playing it year by year through arbitration....I know the team has to offer a deal. Kingery is an example of if he were in this situation he would still be paid and under contract.

zambonir 2020-10-10 22:43:34 UTC #105

Maybe? Not for the rest of their life/career, no, but... in the rare instance where a player does not recover and return to normal action, until they would have normally reached free agency. They are de facto under contract for those six years, and should be paid until they are able to play again.

It's a complicated thing to hash out, I realize. To me common sense would be to pay a guy like Morgan (or Seranthony) major league minimum while injured. A baseline guaranteed contract until you reach free agency. They get paid, and the Phillies don't lose the player. Of course this could also be solved if injury/availability was factored into arbitration, or if the relationship between service time and pay wasn't so lopsided to begin with.

Granted, most players are probably somewhat okay with becoming free agents in such circumstances, or at least, would prefer it to my proposal, because once they do get healthy they'll get paid again.

Imhof is a completely different story. I would imagine he actually got a settlement or some kind of compensation, probably exceeding what he would have made in six years of minor league ball.

Philsmania 2020-10-10 22:47:15 UTC #106

With regard to Imhof, I would be shocked if he didn't hire a lawyer and seek hefty damages from the operator of the park where it happened and the manufacturer of the part that broke.

zambonir 2020-10-11 01:07:39 UTC #107

There was probably a settlement or we would have read about an actual lawsuit. MLB and MiLB also have to carry workmen's comp and other types of insurance so he probably did get some coverage there. And he is now working as a financial advisor... his path will be a lot different than if something similar were to happen to a kid from the DR.

zambonir 2020-10-11 01:20:58 UTC #108

Well, hey, no rush...(I mean, what's the thought process here, that if he leaves or demotes himself voluntarily he doesn't get paid as much?)

Three sources said this past week that they believe Middleton’s preference is for MacPhail to relinquish the club presidency a year early or at least to cede his baseball-related duties, thereby enabling the Phillies to hire both a president of baseball operations and a general manager.

zambonir 2020-10-13 20:51:18 UTC #109

Draft thread turned into a lot of off-season talk because of the QO connection. If we lose both Didi and JT I think the Phillies would have to consider this, but they very plainly don't have the trade assets (especially if, as this article says, Cleveland doesn't need a young SS back in the deal)

bigegypt0417 2020-10-13 21:06:44 UTC #110

I think if you lose JT and start cutting payroll, you will end up with a scenario where Harper will begin looking for an exit strategy...one that will make the phillies take a bath.

It seems to me that if the phillies have any chance of being relevant, they need to avoid that or signing any free agents going forward will be unlikely. They made promises to Boras...I think he's going to expect them to honor those.

andyb 2020-10-13 21:23:54 UTC #111

It is silly to think Bryce wants out. He will want to know that there is a long term plan to win, but I think he would even be OK with a rebuilding strategy that would take a few years. He is in a city where theoretically there is a commitment to win and to spend up to the luxury tax line if necessary.

Bryce is smart enough to know that re-signing JT for $25 million a year and being able to afford little else is not a good long term strategy. He also is smart enough to know that a quick rebuild is possible with money. Which likely means not overpaying for JT or Didi (but still offering them QOs). If they both leave, spread the money around a bit. Get a mid-level catcher, another starter, a back end reliever, and a bat for the OF. Get younger, play better defense, and save a bit of money for flexibility.

Bryce is in for the long haul. He has every right to demand a coherent plan and strategy, but there is no indication he is even close to wanting out. He can see the current strategy did not work. Now just get a better strategy.

EDmuch 2020-10-13 21:24:23 UTC #112

It is rare for BE and I to agree on things. but on this one I agree 100%. If the Phils let Realmuto go, and start cutting payroll, they will hear big time from Boras and Harper. Perhaps privately at first, but eventually it will get louder and louder. Middleton seems to have personally assured Harper that the Phils would be committed to a championship caliber team, not a rebuilding. And when the dust clears, no big name FA will even pick up a phone call from the Phils.

EDmuch 2020-10-13 21:25:40 UTC #113

I doubt Harper is focusing upon how competitive the Phils are when he is 35.

andyb 2020-10-13 21:26:01 UTC #114

Free agents listen to money. They will always pick up the phone. Not winning a bidding war with the Mets over JT is not going to make them stop listening to Philly.

bigegypt0417 2020-10-13 21:28:14 UTC #115

I'm sorry...I'm fairly certain...actually, even if you go back to the press conference, he did not sign here to sit through a rebuild...he signed here because assurances were made about being among the highest payrolls in baseball.

Calling it silly simply means you don't remember his own words and those of his agent...he is not going to waste his prime years on another 3 year rebuild.

bigegypt0417 2020-10-13 21:29:52 UTC #116

Actually....they listen to the commitments teams make to them...Harper isnt going to sit here through another 3 year rebuild.

andyb 2020-10-13 21:48:00 UTC #117

Well he did say he wanted to bring a title back to DC....

Every player wants to win. Every player who signs a $200 million plus contract says they want to win a title with their new team. What Bryce said is not very different than what any other free agent has said at their own initial press conference.

As I said, all Bryce will want is a plan to win that makes sense. There is no need for any sort of complete rebuild. That is the advantage teams with money have. Bryce is in for the long haul. He has always been a good teammate also even though he had an early reputation that he was more interested in himself.

Yes it is silly to think Bryce wants to leave. It is completely invented without ANY evidence. If the team cuts payroll down to $80 million a year then there would be cause to think about it. Cutting payroll to $190 million with a plan to go higher at the right time is not exactly cause to demand a trade.

Austinfan 2020-10-13 22:03:25 UTC #118

When you sign a 13 year deal, win now really isn't a priority, it's not like a 32 year old pitcher with only a couple good seasons left in his arm.

What Harper would want to see, more than resigning JT, is the Phillies to hire a top baseball guy to run the show and Middleton bow out. It's pretty obvious that McPhail and Klentak were a fail, they weren't horrible, the franchise isn't in shambles, but it's gonna take a few years to rebuild this organization from top to bottom.

If you really want a ring, you have to reject a patch job that will mean never a serious contender, never winning more than 85 or so games. Recycling 30 year old FAs is not the path to glory.

bigegypt0417 2020-10-13 22:06:26 UTC #119

You have never actually built a path to glory...you've built 80 win teams and hoped for good luck...

We all get it...you are anti-spending and want to build a team like the A's and Billy Beane...which means never actually winning anything.

bigegypt0417 2020-10-13 22:12:16 UTC #120

You may want to read what i said...I know you like to ignore the actual words but try...I never said Bryce Harper currently wants to leave.

I think if you lose JT and start cutting payroll, you will end up with a scenario where Harper will begin looking for an exit strategy...one that will make the phillies take a bath.

Plain and simple...he was promised a team that would be at the top in payroll. There is no good reason he would waste 3 or 4 prime years on a rebuild.

Also...here are his own words...

J.T. Realmuto needs to be our catcher next year — plain and simple,” Harper said last week. “He’s the best catcher in baseball. He’s the best-hitting catcher in baseball. Our guys love to throw to him if that’s [Zack] Wheeler, if that’s [Aaron] Nola, if that’s anybody.

“Anybody that’s the best at their position — hitting and fielding — needs to be signed and that is J.T. Realmuto. I don’t think that should even be a question. There’s going to be two teams or three teams in the NL East who are going to go after that guy and if that happens, I mean, that’s going to be tough to swallow for us.”

zambonir 2020-10-13 23:11:00 UTC #121

Every team in baseball is going to cut payroll, except maybe the Mets. The Phillies didn't promise a particular number, they promised to to be one of the league's biggest spenders, and they still will be. They also didn't know that COVID-19 was coming. As much as I don't buy ownership's poormouthing, it's not going to be an especially good look if Bryce is worried about the Phillies' failing to come up with an extra $20 million for a superstar player while they are laying off 20 scouts and 50 office workers. You can't treat like this like a normal off-season.

The Athletic story today basically said the Phillies blew their chance with JT when they said they wouldn't give him an extension until after the off-season, and that they needed their in-season # for him to be $10 million. That set up the arbitration battle and there was no middle ground after that. Klentak and Middleton botched it with all the other payroll choices that led to that one (plus their refusal to pay the tax).

If JT is right about his market in this environment the Phillies will either pay to play or they won't but I think the Phillies might actually have a better read right now.

I don't want a $200 million payroll, I want a good team. While I'd rather accomplish that more cheaply by ditching Cutch or Segura, it might not be possible. But there are also ways to improve that don't only involve JT or Didi or any $20 million player.

Not to mention that adding Didi, Girardi and Wheeler didn't ultimately improve the team compared to last year, and adding JT only led to a marginally better 2019 team compared to 2018. He's a great player, obviously you want him, and obviously Bryce wants him to say too, but Bryce also understands the baseball business. And that there are other ways to win. You can even win a World Series without Bryce Harper, it seems.

As for Boras, he'd be perfectly happy to see JT go elsewhere and then he could try and get the Phillies to give some of that money to one of his own guys. He'll also be happy if JT sets off a bidding war, which helps all agents.