Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[zambonir]

Moore is the real x-factor. Did he really turn it around in Japan? How much does just being a lefty help? Plus, he leads the rotation in innings pitched last year.

Anderson is more of a typical 5-6 starter gamble, like when we signed Chan Ho Park and he couldn't hack it. Or when we had Eickhoff.

Still doing a lot better than 2019 when Pivetta was supposed to become our #2 starter (ahead of Jake even).

And we really have to hope that between the new front office and the pitching coach, that they are able to do better at finding, extracting, and creating marginal value.

(Adding)
interesting note on Moore, he pitched in a six-man rotation in Japan

From Japan with glove: Matt Moore excited to join Phillies rotation

[BostonRoss]

Hey Rick. I am not as down on Segura as some. I do wonder why teams keep getting rid of him, but he is better even as a shortstop than a lot of names I had heard bandied about (Rosario, for instance). I'd rather get value paying his full salary than paying a good chunk of his salary to play for someone else.

[allentown]

I'd also keep him. He has 1.5 and 1.4 bWAR in his years in Philly, so he has value, whether it is starting at 2B or being a utility IF. We have Didi re-signed, because Segura absolutely could not be our starting SS. His defense isn't good enough.

[andyb]

The issue really has not been that Segura was not a good player, though the assumption that he was still a good shortstop defensively was wrong when they made the trade. Right now he is better than the alternatives at 2B (or 3B if Bohm has to play some 1B).

The problem with Segura is more that he is relatively expensive compared to the young players (Kingery and Crawford) that might have filled his role. If someone tells us that we can pencil Kingery in as a 780 OPS guy at 2B with above average defense then Segura is not the best player at that position (even if he has a 780 OPS with above average defense because he would be more expensive than Kingery).

The best thing for the Phillies would be if both Segura and Kingery play well this season. Chances are they both will not, which is why Segura is still penciled in for a very important role. Plus his salary makes it hard to get much in a trade.

[andyb]

Less on the Segura tangent, but one thing worth noting is the right-handed nature of the lineup still. Right now if Kingery wins the CF job we will have 6 right-handed starters and 2 left-handed (Harper and Gregorius). Now Knapp and some other CF in spot starts could increase that to 3 or 4, but it is still a very right-handed heavy lineup.

This just underscores the need for the bench to include a left-handed "bat". Not a left-handed hitter that can fill in defensively like Knapp or Haseley or Quinn. A left-handed pinch hitter that could actually hit a HR in the late innings. This is probably the most important remaining piece to add, even ahead of the bullpen because there is a strong chance that all 7 starters open in the majors (Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, Moore, Anderson, Howard, Velasquez). That means one of two of them are in the bullpen to start. Howard seems to be the only plausible minor league assignment and we actually don't want that to happen because he is our best chance at upside. So the Anderson and Moore signings probably filled one or two slots in the bullpen. I think any other upgrade more than a minor league contract might wait till midseason if needed.

[BostonRoss]

Segura's defense does seem to have declined, but it isn't clear to me that he wouldn't have been good enough if we hadn't been able to re-sign Didi. Didi's defense has also declined, perhaps due to his injury and age. I'm not sure how much stock I want to put into 2020 numbers, but Didi was only at 0.1 dWAR last year and was negative in his injury-plagued 2019. Semien was negative in 2020, and even Simmons was at 0 dWAR. Segura was still positive in 2019 and before.

I'm glad they signed Didi, and they needed another middle infielder one way or the other, but if Segura ended up being the SS, it would have been far from the biggest problem the Phillies had in 2021. It wouldn't even have been their biggest defensive problem.

[andyb]

Didi is also important as a left-handed bat in a right-hand dominated lineup.

[andyb]

Apparently we might not be done looking at starting pitchers:
https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1357325364431831041

My guess is the reporter is probably out of date on the reference. We certainly would need to have something like a Velasquez trade lined up to even consider going after yet another starter.

[zambonir]

That Athletic piece yesterday, while mostly opinion, did make it sound like trading Vince was on the table. And it does seem like a current report, though it could be agent-driven, or the Phillies are just kicking the tires. If they were able to land someone they like at a price they like they could try and trade Vince, or yeah, basically call Anderson a reliever (and Howard too).

I agree it's important to keep Howard in the majors not just because of his upside but because every inning he throws in the minors is one fewer inning they get from him this year. He could get optioned once or twice though (swapped for a reliever during one of those weeks where he's not making a start. Like they did with Eflin that one time, albeit controversially).

[EDmuch]

I could get pretty excited about signing Paxton and then trading Velasquez.

[zambonir]

It really is starting to look like Dombroski has gotten ownership to change their mind on spending if that happens (and assuming playoff expansion doesn't, in which case the MLBPA would seem to have a point!)

If they are in the mix, they'll have to hit or exceed the CBT to make deadline deals, and then reset next year. If they're not, they'll have assets to sell (assuming they didn't all play badly)>

[andyb]

I guess this was from a Heyman tweet yesterday, but it looks like we are interested in Brad Miller or maybe Shin Soo Choo for that left-handed bench spot. Either would be good for me if the price is right. In addition to Marwin Gonzalez too.

Phillies have reportedly shown interest in bringing back Brad Miller – Phillies...

Could Choo Shin-soo find a new home in Philly?

[Austinfan]

Thing to watch with Segura is how unusual 2020 was,
BB jumped to 10.6%, previous high was 6.0%
K jumped to 20.7%, previous high was 15.9%
ISO jumped to .156, highest since .181 in 2016.

$30M for two years basically means they need 2 WAR a year out of him.
His defense at 2B/3B is above average.
His change in hitting approach bears watching, if he is learning to be more selective, that could let him maintain his offensive output for another couple years and hit that WAR target.

[zambonir]

He's a useful player, just not a cost-effective one. WAR valuations aren't what matter here, compared to the unbalanced Phillies payroll and MLB's changing market conditions.

Plus a not insignificant part of his value to the Mariners - and the Phillies when they traded for him - was his ability to play SS. Now the three best free agent SSs on the open market all signed for less, and you can get a 2B (like Wong) for almost half.

Obviously it will be great if he can still hit that WAR target going into next season, whether because he sticks around or because it means he could still get traded. And if not, one dead year from a big contract on an older player is hardly surprising, though in Segura's case we also gave something up for him, unlike Ibanez, Polanco or Cutch (or Lee the second time). None of it has anything to do with him really, it's just money that could be better spent elsewhere

[julio]

...it's just money that could be better spent elsewhere.

It’s money that could have been better spent elsewhere. As in, past tense, sunk cost, not something that can really be changed now (notwithstanding wishful thinking about somehow sticking another club with Segura’s contract).

[zambonir]

Well, at the time they acquired him, it wasn't necessarily a bad use of resources - it had previously gone to Santana. Now it is. But the conditional present tense is still correct for a hypothetical, however wishful. (I still think it will happen, but not this season, and obviously not without the Phillies paying half or more.)

[Taudawg]

Segura is only 30 and should be the regular 2b for the two years left on his deal. He's also the backup SS and 3B. Not much they can do at the moment - I don't think there is a way to flip him and not include cash, which defeats the purpose. If Kingery shows something this year, maybe you make that move next year. Still probably not a scenario where we see much in return.

[zambonir]

And we accept that now because what's done is done, and because this team has accomplished nothing and is realistically not a serious World Series or even NL East contender. That being the case - barring a willingness to spend past the CBT - we could have been just as good with a middle IF of Crawford and Hernandez (if not Kingery). We were already going to lose the Crawford trade as the cost of putting present over future but we lost it that much more the minute it only got us a 2B.

If you can trade Segura at 50% next year that still helps, especially if the CBT space is needed. But who really knows what next year might bring (besides a lockout)? I would say one of Didi, Kingery and Segura won't be here though, and even if Didi is still here he might end up at 2B himself, if SS is where they go shopping (it's either there or the OF, possibly both).

[andyb]

If you can trade Segura at 50% next year that still helps, especially if the CBT space is needed.

I'd amend this. If Kingery or Stott develop into a starting infielder and we can then trade Segura with some contract dollars then it will have been a success. The key has always been developing that young player you can plug into the lineup at a low cost for a few years so dollars can be directed at other positions of need.

Our salary quandary now is due to not developing enough productive young players (or trading them like with Crawford).

[julio]

Well, at the time they acquired him, it wasn't necessarily a bad use of resources - it had previously gone to Santana. Now it is. But the conditional present tense is still correct for a hypothetical, however wishful. (I still think it will happen, but not this season, and obviously not without the Phillies paying half or more.)

Paying half or more doesn’t “unsink” the cost; it may obscure it, but that’s all.