Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

flyers19rw 2020-11-01 00:27:44 UTC #302

Totally agree. This club is coming off of a season where Phan interest was challenged due to COVID and the team’s propensity to grab defeat out of the jaws of victory. Under the best of circumstances, which is not what is happening with the next season, firing up Phan interest would be a challenge. A do nothing off season would not be the path to take. The Eagles always stimulate interest in their fan base. The Flyers are on the verge of being a serious PO contender if not a challenger for the SC. With the moves that the Sixers have recently made, people are looking forward with anticipation to see what their next season will bring. The Phillies need to understand that if they don’t get their act together and do what needs to be done this off season, they will be at the bottom of the pile in this city.

phillychuck 2020-11-01 01:01:23 UTC #303

Doc Rivers
Darryl Morey
Marc Everrsley
Calvin Booth
Troy Weaver
Malik Rose
Leon Rose

Just to name a few.

zambonir 2020-11-01 01:53:52 UTC #304

You are quoting our team president, of course, not me.

Like I said, they are using the pandemic as an excuse to justify Middleton's own failures, indecisiveness and unwillingness to spend money - as well as the fact that firing Klentak was an empty gesture in the short-term. As little as I think of the Sixers' ownership they sure didn't let $ - or Zoom - stop them from eating Brown's contract, hiring Doc and doubling the # of top executives. Granted the NBA did not lose money like MLB did.

We'll see how it goes, but the way they are talking, it seems they want to rebuild without admitting they are going to rebuild. The idea of running it back for 1-2 more years as anything other than a slight wild card hopeful only works if they spend some $ and that's even more true if the team they bring to Clearwater was built by the same front office as before (Klentak included, technically).

zambonir 2020-11-01 16:19:07 UTC #305

The Inquirer writers are turning up the pressure

Somehow Brookover still manages to make a suspect argument though:

Wait-until-later thinking is insane and we’ll use some Friday roster moves as an example why. The Phillies allowed relievers David Robertson, Adam Morgan, Blake Parker, Heath Hembree, and David Phelps all to become free agents Friday as well as outfielder Phil Gosselin. Perhaps a new GM might have viewed one of those value-at-the-margin guys as worth keeping. It’s a little thing, but a lot of little decisions the Tampa Bay Rays made helped them win the American League pennant.

Broadly, he's correct, though it's unlikely even a fast-track hire would have been done by now. But also, none of those guys had any untapped marginal value! The Ray would have done the same. A wealthy team, on the other hand, might have still kept Phelps and given Hembree and Parker their arbitration awards as depth.

flyers19rw 2020-11-01 19:07:44 UTC #306

It could be that Middleton doesn’t see baseball happening for two years. With the rate of COVID infections rising the way that they are, the ‘21 season is in jeopardy. Blow off ‘22 due to a lockout.

allentown 2020-11-01 20:49:49 UTC #307

Could be that the owners strongly disagree on the path forward. Short, weird season, or not, the Dodgers are the 2020 World Champions, ending a prolonged drought for them. Even if 2021 is another weird, shortened season, likely a team will be crowned the new WC. With the prospect of a second season of revenue pain, teams that are willing to spend and pick up some worthy FA and stock up on baseball side management and scouts/development staff/quality analytical guys will likely get more bang for their buck than normal (fewer teams spending, opponents shedding talent which may be available on the cheap, probably won't have to pay 162 games worth of salary in 2021). If Middleton wants to spend to win, then 2021 might be the ideal time on this rebuild cycle.

I am saying 2021 is the year to strike if the goal is to reach and advance in playoffs. Going to WS probably not a possibility, unless we get really lucky. Obviously not the route to take if the goal is to trim $ losses. Even if the Phillies went the 'compete as hard as possible' route, lucked out, and became the 2021 WCs, they probably lose a bucket of $. The Dodgers probably lost $ in 2020, but I suspect they are happy to have the WC.

One thing making 2021 especially propitious for a team willing to take significant $ losses to win: the current Covid runaway is likely to last through the Christmas and New Year holidays, meaning hospitaloizations will be high through at least 3rd weak in January, i.e. likely through almost all of off-season. FA contracts will drop in $ value and years and teams will continue to want to cut salary $. Likely a bigger opportunity than 2020, where the off-season was normal through much of ST.

Austinfan 2020-11-01 22:14:12 UTC #308

The goal should be to focus on younger FAs you can sign to cheap 2-3 year deals.

Older FAs should be limited to low cost one year deals b/c they'll be available next winter (after that revenues will recover and teams will no longer be limited by cash flow).

julio 2020-11-01 22:25:10 UTC #309

Six Qualifying Offers have been made:

Trevor Bauer, Reds
J.T. Realmuto, Phillies
Marcus Stroman, Mets
Kevin Gausman, Giants
D.J. LeMahieu, Yankees
George Springer, Astros

Phils-related thoughts: Obviously, do we re-sign Realmuto? Secondarily, do we pursue Trevor Bauer? Others?

No QO for Didi Gregorius.

andyb 2020-11-01 22:36:33 UTC #310

The signs that the Phillies would be conservative here (and a little cheap) were there for the past couple of months. It is disappointing that we have not figured out how to buy prospects. I get that it was a risk this offseason with negative cash flow, but it is the type of risk a forward thinking billionaire should make.

zambonir 2020-11-01 22:46:33 UTC #311

I dunno, let's wait and see what the GM thinks.

Clearly they still want to keep JT, but they also are in no rush to meet his asking price as this market develops. MacPhail already made that pretty clear.

And with or without changes, JT is still Middleton's to sign, really. If the Mets want him badly enough they will get him; if not the Phillies' chances are probably as good as anybody else's offering similar money.

I don't see how they are even in the market for a $12-15 million starting pitcher, let alone a $15 million+ multi-year guy with a lost draft pick.

Bauer's interesting because he's said in the past that he only wants one-year deals (in which case he might take the QO) but he's also the kind of wild card the Phillies tend to eschew. (So was Curt but we already had him by then.)

andyb 2020-11-01 22:54:53 UTC #312

I would not be shocked if 2 or 3 of those players accept the offer. Gausman, Stroman, and LeMahieu would all be candidates for that especially if they are looking at 2 or 3 years with a $15 million AAV or less. They only have 10 days to decide and I am guessing they won't have much clarity about the market by then.

zambonir 2020-11-02 01:34:05 UTC #313

The looming labor dispute strikes me as a real wild card. If you can get that third year you might want that security vs. being a free agent again in 2022 or 2023. Especially if your income in 2022 might be half or zero. But 2021 could still have a prorate too.

andyb 2020-11-02 12:56:01 UTC #314

ESPN free agent rankings. JT prediction a pretty reasonable 5/110. Didi ranked way down at 26th with a 1 year/$9 million projection. I'd take that.... In general a bunch of bargains expected.

bigegypt0417 2020-11-02 15:20:56 UTC #315

5/110 seems like a good contract to me.

I think if the phillies let him walk for that money, then we really are going cheap.

andyb 2020-11-02 15:23:06 UTC #316

The Athletic thinks the Phillies need to go for it this winter. Just wish I had confidence in their decision-making.

EDmuch 2020-11-02 15:34:12 UTC #317

Charlie Morton is available probably on a one year contract

Philsmania 2020-11-02 17:14:03 UTC #318

I wouldn't say I am flabbergasted but I am very disappointed that they didn't offer Gregorious the QO.

LoneStarPhan 2020-11-02 17:24:05 UTC #319

Normally, I would agree that they should have offered Didi the QO, but if the projection of one year, $9 million is anywhere close to what it will end up being, then a QO doesn't make sense. They still can negotiate with him and bring him back on a one year deal if they can agree on an amount.

bkeich 2020-11-02 17:31:29 UTC #320

The issue is that to retain him I think we will need to overpay some. When he realizes "wait, I am hitting cleanup if I sign" he might figure out that the playoffs are very unlikely. This was a fun game for us in 2009 and 2010 when players wanted to come to the Phils because they saw it as a good chance to not only get paid, but win and maybe get a ring. Now I fear they are looking at a team with no playoff history on its roster and no real prospect to finish much better than 4th. Unfortunately the only FAs we will get at these rock bottom prices (for value) are the ones that loose out from the good teams and are left unsigned in March.

A 1 year deal for Didi at $9M implies about 1-1.5 WAR. That is good value, I am just not sure that we get that discount unless he is the SS left without a seat when the music stops playing.

zambonir 2020-11-02 18:41:07 UTC #321

MLBTR says 5/125 for JT.

3/39 for Didi. That's a very different story obviously.

It's not very complicated, either Middleton is really going to the tighten the purse strings or he isn't. If he isn't, they can still outbid the Mets for JT if it's a soft market (but if the Mets owner gets ridiculous, fine, walk away).

And as ever, Didi will take the best contract, not the best team. If someone's giving him three years, well, maybe the Phillies screwed up not giving the QO. If $9 million one year is the best he can do obviously the Phillies could go higher than that. But they could also just sign a different shortstop.

Normal year, you'd have to think about Springer as the alternative to JT, but between the new normal and the no GM it's hard to see them making that big a move. Heck, normal year, you bust the tax and sign both JT and Springer (if you lose Didi).

As it is, the pitching is still going to be an issue. I imagine the trade market will be very active but we mostly only have distressed assets or minor assets (or at least can't spare the good ones).