Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[Austinfan]

The problem with JT isn't this year's salary, it's whether he gets an extreme overpay (5yr/$130M or so) that squeezes the team 3 years out when he starts to decline and the new GM finds himself in a bind.

If we had a real shot at winning now, apres moi le deluge, you do what the Phillies should have done in 2012, tear it all down after a good run and start over.
But if we're an 80-85 team with JT, why mortgage the future?

[zambonir]

I think you are overly optimistic about the team's financial picture, and the willingness of the Bucks/Middleton to dip further into their personal wealth (or go against what will be a leaguewide trend).

To my eyes, this is a team that isn't hiring a new president or GM this season because they can't afford it, and if they can't afford that, they can't afford a free agent shortstop either.

Yes, they have enough money for most if not quite all of what they need if they don't cut payroll. But my guess is they are going to cut payroll.

[flyers19rw]

This isn’t Bill Giles’ Phillies. There are ways to cut payroll without slashing it on the field. To cut on the field payroll would play into the concept that Philadelphia is a small market town. That is an insult to the region that would haunt the support of the franchise for years as it did Giles in the past.
As for the FO, how many organizations do you know of that went into a season without an empowered GM. It will happen.

[zambonir]

Like I said, you are optimistic (which, hey, not sure how any Phillies fan gets that way, but more power to you!). To me it pretty much is Bill Giles' Phillies, both of these owners were part of those days. And I do think MIddleton is poormouthing to some extent, partly as a negotiating strategy with free agents (because it's certainly not a great PR strategy).

But the reality of baseball over these three seasons (the third being a likely lockout) suggests there's gonna be thrift. The only question is if the market adjusts in such a way that the Phillies can still get things done (or, alternately, if one team that is not the Phillies bucks the trend).

[Austinfan]

Actually, the best reason to cut payroll to star the offseason is to have money and cap room available when the bargains hit the street - because a lot of franchises will be in worse shape.
For what it would cost to re-up JT and Didi, you might be able to add a starting catcher, SS, CF and some pitchers.

[BostonRoss]

I was trying to think of who would be a comparable pitcher to Nola who was traded at roughly the same point is his career. The best I could think of is Chris Sale. Sale was 27 when the White Sox traded him, same age as Nola. Sale had two plus good years (15 WAR) for the Red Sox before getting a big contract and then getting hurt. The White Sox got one useful player in the trade, Yoan Moncada. After two mediocre years, Moncada had a 5 WAR season in 2019 before regressing this year (though I wouldn't draw any conclusions from anyone's 2020 performance). I'm on the fence as to whether I would trade Nola for the equivalent of 2017 Moncada.

Another comparable is David Price, who was 28 when the Rays traded him for three players who all have played in the majors for several years. Nick Franklin was a bust, and old friend Drew Smyly, who pitched well for about a year until he got hurt. The best turned out to be Willy Adames, who was 18 at the time and is now the Rays shortstop. He's a 5 WAR player at age 25. I think I would be OK with a haul like that for Nola.

The next match I came up with was Johnny Cueto, who was a little older when the Reds traded him for three pitcher in their early 20s. The best was Brandon Finnegan. I don't think anyone would trade Nola for that kind of return. Cueto may not have been quite as good as Nola, though.

I couldn't find any more recent comparables. The Padres traded Jake Peavy back in 2009 when he was 28; the return was pretty much Clayton Richard. Pass. (The return for the 33 year-old Peavy was then 25 year-old Heath Hembree.)

It seems like the Phillies might get a good player back for Nola, or they might not. There is of course the saved money to consider.

[zambonir]

Actually, the best reason to cut payroll to star the offseason is to have money and cap room available when the bargains hit the street - because a lot of franchises will be in worse shape.
For what it would cost to re-up JT and Didi, you might be able to add a starting catcher, SS, CF and some pitchers.

But if the market is that soft they can actually afford JT and Didi.

One thing about signing Didi as well as JT is you don't have to address CF if you do that. Kingery joins Haseley and Quinn in the CF rotation, Haseley and Quinn can also play some LF, and you are free to get a LH power bat who isn't a strong fielder. But if you only sign JT you want more offense in the OF and if you only sign Didi, even more so. I just don't know if they are prepared to write the checks, especially with no one other than the owner accountable to future seasons.

Nola for Sixto Sanchez and Alfaro, how 'bout that?

[mdougherty12]

I was trying to think of who would be a comparable pitcher to Nola who was traded at roughly the same point is his career. The best I could think of is Chris Sale. Sale was 27 when the White Sox traded him, same age as Nola. Sale had two plus good years (15 WAR) for the Red Sox before getting a big contract and then getting hurt. The White Sox got one useful player in the trade, Yoan Moncada. After two mediocre years, Moncada had a 5 WAR season in 2019 before regressing this year (though I wouldn't draw any conclusions from anyone's 2020 performance). I'm on the fence as to whether I would trade Nola for the equivalent of 2017 Moncada.

Michael Kopech could also still end up being a very valuable pitcher for the White Sox from the Sale trade return.

[BostonRoss]

True. He hasn’t contributed yet, but he’s still young.

[allentown]

Bowden: Cora (back) to the Red Sox? Finding best fits for open manager, GM jobs

Bowden in Athletic touting Dodgers' Josh Byrnes to fill the Phillies GM post. Not sure if he is talking this winter or next. Not sure the Phillies plan to fill he spot this winter. If they do, Byrnes makes sense.

[zambonir]

He's a good candidate. I certainly hope they don't intend to wait until July or August, it's just that they can't possibly fill the job (or jobs) in time for all the major decisions looming in December. A lot depends on MacPhail and also on how strongly Middleton feels about needing to conduct extensive in-person conversations. A lot easier to do that when you have a private plane though. They could bring guys in and have distanced meetings, or even outdoor meetings if done in Clearwater.

[allentown]

Covid is a ame excuse for delay. SCOTUS has operated remotely, Fortune 500ncompanies are doing the bulk of their decision making over the internet. Unless they have a Harry Potter-style truth-teller (and he'd be better used to spend his time in DR, Venezuela and Panama asking the guys we are scouting to tell him their birthdates) they can learn all they need to learn over Zoom and internetted and mailed documents. If they want o have the guy take a health physical, they can appoint a physician in his home town.

[zambonir]

Well, I agree, it's an excuse. As opposed to saying, "we haven't quite figured out how to get MacPhail to take a pay cut and transition into advisor, and we're still paying Klentak, Rice, Proefrock and Minitti for another two years." The Sixers also did their coaching search in person.

You would also think that if they aggressively cleaned house, some of those guys, Klentak included, would land assistant or front office jobs elsewhere, subtracting some $ from what the Phillies owe them.

[allentown]

The valid excuse, which hey may not be able to mention, because of the risk of being penalized for tampering is that they are focvused on one or wo guys who they expect to be available next year, but not this year. The problem with that, is that, like prospective FA classes, a lo of guys will re-sign, possibly with a promotion with their existing teams, and never be available for signing by us , or someone else may have tampered and already have a verbal agreement with them.

[zambonir]

So long as they are willing to offer the president's job there shouldn't be very many people like that. Obviously Theo. But any sitting GM can be pursued for president, and any assistant for GM. And even if they are under contract you can always work something out, if the current team doesn't make a countermove, and the employee really wants out.

We can certainly withhold judgement for another 5-6 weeks. Obviously Byrnes would be available to interview once the Dodgers lose.

I still think you have to consider Luhnow too.

[allentown]

I still think you have to consider Luhnow too

He's an accused cheat, whom the Commissioner banned from baseball for a year, but many teams that have succeeded seem to have done so with one form or another of cheating. Perhaps the Phillies need a push to shed their boyscout, support the intent of every loophole-ridden rule the Commissioner implements in baseball's never-ending war with its unionized employees. I hate to half-way support immoral business practices, but baseball isn't a moral business.

[zambonir]

Not only that but he was both the mentor and the victim of an MLB employee who went to prison for cheating. Nevertheless, Hinch is not going to be unemployed for more than a few days after his suspension ends, and what Luhnow built in Houston - and seeded to multiple teams since - had little to do with sign-stealing, and is what the Phillies openly wanted to emulate (along with Theo in Chicago). They just haven't had the front office talent (nor, ironically, did Amaro and Gillick leave the same building blocks in Philly that Wade did in Houston. And Philly!)

The Astros' culture - including Crane and that GM who got fired for harassing female journalists - leaves a lot to be desired, but that comes from the same Wall Street/Silicon Valley mentality.

It is, I think we agree, pretty much impossible to imagine Middleton and MacPhail pursuing him. You would think someone whose entire fortune comes from cigars wouldn't be so milquetoast.

[EDmuch]

Well as if to confirm the Phils' inability to evaluate talent, Charlie MOrton, the man that Klentak forgot, is the winning pitcher for Tampa Bay in Game 7 of the ALCS.

[zambonir]

It's not like it matters, since even with him here the team would not have reached a Game 7 of a championship series. Or, honestly, seen Morton be as good a pitcher as he was with the Astros, and the Rays, even if he was already improving during his brief time in Philly, since we have shown no facility for making pitchers better than used to be, be they rookies, vets or stars.

I also don't begrudge Klentak that one really. Morton was injured then and he was old when he hit the open market last time. It's extremely impressive what he's accomplished, too bad Arrieta, who was actually a better pitcher than Morton at his peak, wasn't a similar age-defier.

Anyway, go Rays.

[EDmuch]

At the time Arrieta was signed, Morton was an All Star and clearly a better pitcher.