The New Unending Flyers thread

[zambonir]

They can. But will they? This team keeps passing every test and may even have a shot at home ice in the first round. They shouldn't become buyers, but not getting a second-round pick (or even high 20s first round) pick for a surprise defenseman who was just a throw-in originally wouldn't be malpractice.

The media drumbeat has already begun.

(And Risto's injury makes it harder to trade Walker rather than Seeler because Walker is a RH shot.)

Kurz: Flyers' best option for the trade deadline might be to simply do nothing

if Ristolainen is out more than just a few weeks, it makes pending unrestricted free agents Sean Walker and Nick Seeler even more vital to the current group — Walker for his right-handed shot and ability to play fast, and Seeler for his toughness/meanness.

Maybe now, Briere can just … do nothing.

No selling. No buying. Just riding into April and perhaps beyond with the current group, now captained by Sean Couturier, that’s clearly got something good going on and looks like it would be a tough out for any team, no matter the seeding.

Does it make sense to deal Laughton, Walker, Seeler or anyone else now, and risk upsetting the Flyers’ cohesive dressing room? Especially in a season in which a playoff berth is not only well within reach, but could also help the Flyers achieve a vital business objective of making the team relevant again in a crowded sports market?

Unless Briere gets offers that blow him away, probably not. That could be part of the reason that coach John Tortorella has said some of the things he has lately, including on Wednesday.

“I don’t think any of the guys that … are maybe being looked at want to leave,” he said. “I know Danny, myself and Jonesy aren’t looking to move them. We’re not actively saying, ‘Here he is.’ But if it works out that it is the best for the building of this team, we have to follow through.”

[xogfog]

I only trade Laughton for a top 20 first round pick, because I've read that the draft gets thin after that point. Otherwise, hang on to him and move him next year. No problem trading Walker, Staal and even Seeler in the right deal. If there a rule against trading injured players? Risto could be moved if the Flyers have a prognosis on him that he will be available sooner than later. A Risto move would be just to get out of that contract, wouldn't expect much back, unless they eat some of the contract.

[zambonir]

They can eat some of the contract and still not get much back, but they'd get something back. It just depends how and when they want to free up that money. They have two slots available for cost-share, and Hayes will only be one more year after this. It's also not out of the question the Flyers want to re-sign Walker, in which case they'd probably need to move Risto just to free up some of that $. More teams will be able to trade for Risto in the off-season too (cap room, general roster churn).

On Laughton, problem is there's really no way to trade for a Top 20 first round pick in advance. You could trade with the team currently picking 17th and then they could end up 29th if they go on a long run. Or you could trade with the team currently picking 14th and if they still don't make the playoffs, great (though I imagine any team in that situation is going to protect the pick). I think they will take any first for him but would laugh at a second+.

[Docs]

If there is a drop off in talent around the 20 spot, I suspect there's another drop off around 40. I've always felt like when nhl teams draft, there is a big difference on the late first round & early second round evaluations by each team - for instance last year the flyers took Bonk in the 20s and I read that other teams had him with a second round grade. So if the Flyers can pick up late firsts or very early seconds, I like them because the value is in the eye of the beholder. For me there's a significant difference between drafting early in the second and late in the second.

[zambonir]

Right now Flyers are slotted for the 21st pick, and might have the Panthers pick at 28 (otherwise that goes to 2025). So that was Kurtz's argument that they aren't desperate for another one though I reckon that between trading Gauthier and losing Hart as a trade chip they could still stand to stockpille. But I don't know that this year is like 2016, when they really had no business standing pat and trying to make the playoffs and drafting 18 instead of being in the lottery.

[Austinfan]

Atkinson is not having a bad year, in fact, it's his best season in 5 years.
Has 22 ES points in 53 games, that prorates to 33 over a full season, solid for a 3RW.
He can also play on the PP2 and PK.

Proiblem is he's 34, makes $5.75M and has another year on his contract.
So where a team might chase him if he was on an expiring contract making $3M (or the Flyers retained $2.5M), they may not want to be on the hook for 35 year old Atkinson next season.

[Austinfan]

As far as the value of picks, this is going to be a very deep defenseman draft, there will be top 4 quality players available in the 20s. TK (24), Foerster (23), Frost (27), Bonk (22) you can find good players in that area of the draft.

[Aquapong]

TK gets the other A. I never really thought of him as leadership before.

[zambonir]

Not that a letter makes you untradeable, but the timing of all this is a pretty interesting statement that they believe in what they have. I suppose you could also read something into the fact that they didn't give a letter to a defenseman, given three of them are trade candidates.

Sometimes the letter is a challenge to become leadership.

[xogfog]

Flyers lose in overtime at the Leafs 4-3, but did a good job getting a point, going into the third period down 3-1.

[Austinfan]

Same issue all season, play with grit and heart, struggle to finish.

Which is fine, go onto Toronto's home ice, actually out play the rest of the team by a wide margin but tie Matthews.
Flyers need a young center, maybe another top four D, otherwise Michkov, Brink, Barkey, Bonk, etc. added to this team would make them SC contenders.

Would not surprise me if Briere trades 2024 1st and 2025 2nd for a young center with top 6 upside.
Or a three way deal with Walker going to one team, and that team and the Flyers send draft picks to another team.

[VoteForKalas]

Atkinson is not having a bad year, in fact, it's his best season in 5 years.
Has 22 ES points in 53 games, that prorates to 33 over a full season, solid for a 3RW.
He can also play on the PP2 and PK.

Proiblem is he's 34, makes $5.75M and has another year on his contract.
So where a team might chase him if he was on an expiring contract making $3M (or the Flyers retained $2.5M), they may not want to be on the hook for 35 year old Atkinson next season.

You made most of the case against Atkinson, but bottom line he is a one dimensional player. If he is not scoring goals, he is a liability as his -17 shows. He is ok on the PK and not great on the PP anymore. With his age, injury history and contract, he is not part of the future and they need to free up that cap space for a better option.

[Austinfan]

Trading Atkinson would be difficult with that contract, not sure Briere wants to retain (only allowed 3 at a time, Hayes the next two years, so two slots left, fine at the TDL on a one year deal b/c it expires with the season).

+/- is a dubious stat, has some value over a very large sample, but very team and situation dependent, and of course, puck luck.
Bunch of advanced metrics out there, most behind pay walls, but you can gooogle "JFresh" and find a lot of his stuff. Other stuff pops up on "X".
One free site:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=PHI&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

Need to read the glossary for definitions, stat I like best is xGF (expected goals), this is used by a lot of sites in different formulations, basically based on where on the ice a shot is taken. HDCF, high danger scoring chances is also useful. For goalies, difference bewteen expect goals against and actual is a better guide to their play than Sv%.

[Aquapong]

Since we’re all on primarily a baseball site, we probably all love stats. I’ve never really looked into advanced hockey metrics though. I don’t know if there’s an agreed upon set of stats like there is for baseball. I think it’s harder to quantify some aspects of a game that moves so quickly and fluidly. The teams transition from offense to defense and back again sometimes in a few seconds.

Plus minus has long been a stat that irked me. Yes, in a large sample size it’s likely to be reasonably accurate. But I have always believed that there should be some level of judgement on awarding a plus or minus to a player. Sometime a guy just jumped on the ice and isn’t even near the play. There’s also guys that work the PK or PP often and their plus minus is skewed because of that.

[zambonir]

If it's possible to trade for a young center all the more reason to trade everyone you can now or in the summer in order to have assets to do so. But what kind of team is unloading a potential future - but already NHL-ready - Top 6 center at the deadline? Two months ago the Flyers were one of the teams who might have had one available (Frost).

It's not like they can't go out and sign a free agent over the next two summers, or get a center (young or vet) at the '25 deadline.

Brink is actually someone I could see them trading for a C. Too soon to put all those guys in ink on the next really good team but hey why should your hockey posts be any different than your baseball posts

If they can't trade Risto they can trade Atkinson without being concerned about the retention slots but if they think they can still move Risto this off-season might want to lave the third one open. On the other hand what else would they actually need it for before Hayes goes away for 2025. I guess maybe Stevenson.

[zambonir]

I don't look too hard at them either but I get the impression there is actually a lot of unanimity on hockey stats, unless you don't believe in analytics at all. Expected goals is the big one and Corsis is a better alternative to +/-.

Explaining the Corsi advanced stat and how to interpret it in hockey

[Austinfan]

The Flyers could use a 4C for a stretch run, but might pick one up as a salary dump in a Walker trade, they have the money to overpay a washed up veteran who can still contribute in a limited role but a SC contender is willing to dump to make cap room for other players.

In the longer run, they need to add a young top 6 type, if they draft one it's 3-4 years if he develops (they're not drafting top 5 anytime soon), but they could package assets to get one in his early 20s. Kreps on Buffalo is a possibility.

[zambonir]

But they could also add an old Top 6 type for nothing (other than money). Michkov isn't due until the fall of 2026 so you actually can draft someone who takes 3-4 years, but you could also add a free agent at any time - just probably not this off-season because next year is still transitional.

[Docs]

There’s also guys that work the PK or PP often and their plus minus is skewed because of that.

Isn’t plus/minus only at even strength?

[Aquapong]

Looks like you’re correct.