Kind of knew what I was really going to see tonight
First game in person. Defense actually looked better than I expected despite the score but obviously way overmatched between the two old guys and the two young guys. And there's still not enough skill/finish/power play. Hope they still make the playoffs and have enough to get it to six games. Isles can now catch them with games in hand and a lot of tough games on the schedule.
They’ve been really bad against the Leafs for a while now. Thankfully the Islanders lost as well. Maybe the Flyers will get to the playoffs, but they haven’t been the same team since the All Star Break.
They have been injured and traded Seeler Walker. I would not expect them to be as good. We have to accept this if we are serious about rebuilding.
Losing Hart puts too big a burden on Ersson.
Trading Walker, Seeler and Risto being hurt has decimated the defense.
Risto was having a solid season before he went down, and Seeler - Walker was their best D-pair.
Drysdale is talented, but I wouldn't mind if he started next year in the AHL and worked on fundamentals, he'll be 22, and they need to bring him along slowly, he was rushed to the NHL and it shows.
On offense, Brink is a year away, Foerster looks like he's hit the rookie wall, Couts wearing down his first year back after two off, and no one is really stepping up other than the Cates - Poehling - Hathaway line, and Poehling and Hathaway can't finish to save their lives.
The important thing is being in the PO race and playing meaningful games against opponents taking them seriously.
Great learning experience for the young players, and Briere gets to see how they handle pressure.
They had to trade Walker. Making the playoffs this season means little to the bigger picture of the rebuild.
The injuries to Risto, Drysdale and Seeler are unfortunate and it appears only Seeler will return before the playoffs.
The loss of Hart is a big deal too and we have no good backup to give Ersson the rest required for him to stay sharp. This is a huge test for Ersson. He has done pretty well overall, but this stretch of tough opponents is brutal.
Agree the other big issue is the lack of offense in general, struggling to finish and especially the feeble power play. Coots continues to be missing in action in particular, but most of the lineup needs to step up to relieve the pressure.
To be fair, they were projected to be a bottom five team before the season, as much as they've improved, the talent simply isn't there. It's not that they need to add a bunch of superstars, as some suggest, rather, just some solid players to fill out the lines and D-pairs. But I don't think Briere can do that next season and they may take a step backwards.
I expect Briere to buyout Peterson, Atkinson and Johansen, that will free up $10M in 2024-25 cap room, plus Ellis' $6M LTIR (which he won't use unless needed, b/c he can accumulate cap room for the TDL by keeping Ellis off the LTIR).
But almost no one in LHV is NHL ready who hasn't been brought up, they don't see much in Lycksell, Allison gone, Laczynski will be 27. Desnoyers (22), Tuomaala (21), Avon (21), Gendron (21), Grans (22), Samson (21) will return for another AHL season. Andrae (22) will get a shot in camp as will Rizzo (23) if he goes pro. McDonald (22) will probably return to college, same with Kaplan, Bump, Bonk, Barkey should return to the CHL. Kolosov will be the starting AHL goalie.
Farabee - Frost - Tippett
Foerster - Couts - TK
Cates - Rizzo? - Brink
Deslauriers - Poehling - Hathaway
do they trade Laughton this summer? Sign/trade for a young center like they did with Poehling last summer?
York - Sanheim
Seeler - Drysdale
Zamula - Risto
Andrae - Attard
Yeah I am certainly glad they didn't try to do more as deadline buyers and it will help if Seeler comes back. But losing both Drysdale and Risto while also trading Walker may still prove fatal. I do think it's too bad they couldn't find another goalie. The fact that they gave up something for Johnson instead of that I guess says how much they knew the d-man weren't coming back. And while Drysdale is not a finished product he theoretically would be helping the PP (while also being part of the really bad PP to this point)
Hey, if they actually fall out they will be in the lottery, albeit not with many shots.
I never know what you mean when you type "TDL" AF. Not really a thing (unless you're talking about Transportation, Distribution and Logistics or To-Do Lists) and should technically be "TD" if you must abbreviate).
TDL = trade deadline. The key with LTIR is if you use it, you can't accumulate cap room during the season for use at the TDL. So Ellis becomes a potential slush fund that you use only if needed..
During the summer, no LTIR but you can be 10% above the cap until the next season starts.
So his money doesn't impact summer moves, but gives them the option of using it if the right opportunity presents itself.
There is concern right now that Johansen is injured, in which case he can't be bought out. Though that may also lead to the Flyers filing a grievance.
There was also chatter about this being connected to Gauthier since they have the same agent. Roundly denied, but they are probably not in love with each other.
Not being sarcastic, why would the Flyers want to buy them out? What is more valuable to the Flyers, the added cap space next year ($9.1m) or not carrying 4.5m over to 2025-2026? Plus, if they stash Johansen & Petersen in the AHL they save 2.2m in the cap.
Cap hits if they don't buy out:
Atkinson - 2024-25 - 5.875m
Johansen - 2024-25 - 4m
Petersen - 2024-25 - 3.85m
Total - 13.725m
Cap hits if they do buy out:
Atkinson 2024-25 - 1.96, 2025-2026 - 1.96
Johansen 2024-25 - 1.333, 2025-2026 - 1.33
Petersen - 2024-25 - 1.28, 2025-2026 - 1.28
Total - 4.57m in 2024-25, 4.57m in 2025-26
Posed as a serious question - would the purpose be to free up space to then try to acquire more draft picks to take on more salary in those years?
Yeah, probably that. agreed, the space in '25-'26 is worth more.
I still have a hard time writing off Atkinson too (but if they do he could also be sent to AHL).
Yea I’d just bite the bullet and get these guys off the books for 2026. Atkinson can be used as a healthy scratch body. Currently the UFA class for 2025-6 looks better than 2024-5 and maybe we’ll be in a position to make a splash.
I'm sure Briere will be busy. There are scenarios where he could also take a usable body on a bad contract in exchange for one of these guys. Or where Johansen is a usable body for another team if the Flyers take something back (and add a pick).
It will be a busy draft night.
They'll have a lot of excess space in 2025-26, and like baseball, it's "use it or lose it," b/c you can't roll it over like the NFL.
So the $5.3M in 2025-26 has far less value than $9M in 2024-25 (Peterson has an odd contract structure, buyout costs $1M next year and $2M the following year).
Extra cap room next seasons allows Briere to avoid putting Ellis on LTIR to start the season, so he can accumulate more cap room for the TDL and use Ellis as a "break glass if needed" cap slush fund. Cap room can be used to take on bad contracts like Peterson and Johansen in return for draft picks (they picked up a 5th for retaining on Hanifan, for example).
The other reason for the buyouts is to clear the contract slots, you're limited to 50 at any time, so if some college players come out, they sign a FA or two (like Poehling) and/or make a trade with multiple prospects coming back, they may need the room. Same if they want to sign an AHL plus veteran to a NHL contract (an enticement to sign to improve LHV and provide an insurance policy for the big club).
I mean, you could make the case that it's kind of awesome, why should anyone be immune from it? I think the bigger issue is that it's not necessarily deserved. And it is rather curious and weird timing given he only just got it. It is certainly a message, but also feels a little panicky. Obviously a lot of tension between the fact that it would be fine if they didn't make the playoffs and the fact that it would still feel bad to squander a pretty solid playoff position.
