The New New Unending Flyers thread

[bigegypt0417]

Again...you love the process of rebuilds...even if it means it goes on for a needlessly long time.

Briere didn't accumulate a boat load of resources to picks a bunch of lottery pickets...he is going to look to move assets for NHL players and if the right big name FA comes around, he will spend the cap money he saved.

Fans don't want to watch an inferior product for another 3 years.

[bigegypt0417]

Why Pat Ferschweiler might fit as Flyers’ next coach: ‘Not a fake bone in (his)...

[zambonir]

To some extent I have, sure. As a fan I would prefer to never see him again (and some fans have already trashed or covered up their jerseys). Not because I am sure he is guilty or is a terrible person but it sends a bad message, just like the Browns with Watson and the Phillies with Odubel.

But hockey-wise he is just another free agent goalie. If there is no baggage at all and no suspension and no hesitancy around the league Flyers probably can't take a run at him (and if they can, they can probably do better). Signing him cheap as a tarnished player who feels some loyalty to his only organization? That might be a different story. I just think Briere will have already signed or traded for someone else before it is even a consideration. Beyond that I guess it would depend on Ersson's next deal and the other young goalies.

[Austinfan]

Most top FAs are 29-30 and get paid off their peak years, not their new contract years.
Fool's errand with a hard salary cap.

One reason they extended TK was he'll be 28 with his new deal, and he's a know quantity who they got at a discount, with the cap rising his $8.75M will be a bargain in a couple years.

[phillychuck]

I’m not sure TK will ever be a bargain at almost $9M annually. Convince me.

[Austinfan]

JVR (30) got 5x7M with a $80M cap. 8.75% of cap.
Voracek (27) 8x8.25M with a $75M cap, 11% of cap
TK (28) gets 8x8.75M with a $95M cap (due to rise to $104, $113 next two seasons), 9.2% of cap and rapidly declining.

The three years before their new deals:
Voracek had 81, 55 and 61 points, 48, 32, 38 ES points (benefited from a top PP unit)
TK had 61 (60g), 68, 75 points, 40, 52, 55 ES points (playing with a piss poor PP unit)

[Docs]

Aren’t JVR and Vorecek examples of really bad contracts? Why are they the comp?

[bigegypt0417]

But not all the top free agents are in their 30's...if they are then don't sign them.i would imagine that goes without saying.

Free agents are only one way to acquire talent.

[Austinfan]

You judge a contract, in terms of whether it's reasonable, ex ante.
You can't know a player is going to get injured 2-3 years into a contract (though if they're in their 30s, the odds go up).
These two contracts provide a sense of the market for FAs.

You're not landing a UFA who scores like TK for less than $9M this summer, and $10M next summer.

[el-pietro]

If they win in Regulation or OT/Shootout they finish with 78 points either way, which is the number Pittsburgh currently has.

My understanding is that tiebreakers are regulation wins, followed by regulation plus overtime wins.
The Penguins currently have 23 regulation wins and the Flyers have 21, so even if they win in regulation the Flyers would have 22 and cannot catch the Penguins?
So that should mean they cannot finish worse than 7th?

So if they lose in regulation they will get the 4th spot going into the lottery
If they lose in OT or in a shoot out they would be 6th
and if they win, no matter how they would be 7th?

[Docs]

Thank you for pointing that out, i was reading the table wrong and thought wins were regulation wins. You are correct, worst they could slide is to 7.

[bigegypt0417]

Again...you have metrics that make you rigid on how you judge things. You believe in incorporating the concept of moneyball in to every sport and the management of those sports...we should remember how many championships have been won using moneyball as your guide.

The flyers have assets and financial flexibility and should use them intelligently and strike when the opportunity presents itself. Not wait for an arbitrary year to go to work.

[zambonir]

I doubt this is the year they buy at the top of the free agent class but they won't hesitate to do it in the coming years, and they also won't hesitate to trade just about anyone (or any picks) for the right guy, especially if it's a player who's still in the late RFA stage of his career.

Using up that cap space on short-term veteran FAs is probably the way to go unless the perfect center or top 4 wing is gettable. Saving cap space to add an expensive player next deadline would also make sense.

Once they hire Tocchet it will be pretty clear they are going for it

[Austinfan]

The flyers have assets and financial flexibility and should use them intelligently and strike when the opportunity presents itself. Not wait for an arbitrary year to go to work.

The NHL has a hard cap. And unlike the NFL, you can't move cap money forward.
So teams have to be wary with contracts, especially big contracts (you can bury $1.25M in the AHL, like the Flyers are currently doing with Peterson).

And age curves apply to hockey like any other sport.

Hockey is a team game, that is, no one or two FAs will make you a SC contender, look at NJ, (2) #1 picks, a bunch of other 1st rd picks, they get impatient, sign Hamilton, trade (1st & 2nd) for Meier, sign Palat, trade Zacha for Haula, trade (1st) for Markstrom, sign Noesen, Tatar, Pesce, Dillon.. Result? They're 16th in point % and headed for a 1st rd exit.

Meanwhile, Caps sign Strome to below market deal, trade a veteran goalie for Dubois, trade 3rd and Jensen for Chychrun, pick up Sandin in a salary dump, trade (2) 3rd rd picks for Thompson (G), Protas (#91) becomes top scorer, McMichael (#25) makes big jump. Top regular season record. Bunch of smart, incremental value moves, no throwing money at "name" FAs.

Sign a 29 year old FA to a 7 year deal and you might get 4 years where he produces at the contract level, and 3 years of subpar performance on the back end.

You're actually better off signing an over 30 FA to a 3 year deal where he's more likely to produce over the length of the contract (lower salary, short-term). Where you have to hope the 29 year old is still productive at 33, you know the 32 year old FA is still productive (or you wouldn't sign him).

[andyb]

pick up Sandin in a salary dump

Sandin cost a number one pick and it was more of a playing time issue than salary. Smart move of course for a solid 2nd or 3rd pairing defenseman now signed to a reasonable long term deal.

The Dubois trade was the real smart one. That was a trade for a really good player being used incorrectly by the Kings where the salary (which was assumed to be way too much) was offset by the goalie deal. And now long term the salary looks just fine for a 70-point 2-way center in his prime, especially with the cap going up.

For the Flyers they almost have too many draft picks. They need to get their development system in order and probably trade picks for some 23-year-olds (like Sandin and Protas and McMichael) that could really accelerate their rebuild or the fans will revolt. The process can't take 5 more years or the fanbase will revolt.

[zambonir]

The top 3 free agents here are Marner, Bennett and Tavares. The first two would cost the maximum, especially to convince them to join the Flyers. Tavares would be cheaper or at least shorter but probably doesn't want to do that either at his age (34) and the article also suggests he prefers to remain a Leaf. The Flyers are probably a year or two away from playing in that UFA sandbox, versus cheaper guys or offer sheets or trades.

Early NHL free agent big board: The 15 top UFA targets to watch this offseason

The two names on there that would make sense are 33 year-old Brock Nelson and 34 year-old Matt Duchene but they probably both get three-four year deals. They aren't first-line centers on a Cup team, but if the Flyers strike out on a 1C or younger upside guy they would certainly improve the roster for a couple of seasons.

Players will surely be traded as well as picks. They're not going to keep both York and Andrae long-term. And if they do add a wing or center they probably move on from one, it's not going to be as simple as dumping fourth-liners to add second-liners.

It really sounds like their first priority is going to be goalie. After a coach, obviously.

[Docs]

Disallowed goal that would have put Buffalo up 5-3 with three minutes to go and now the flyers are on the PP. this is coming down to the wire

[bigegypt0417]

4th place it is!

[xogfog]

That’s huge, now let’s see Michkov score a hat trick.

[el-pietro]

That was way too close at the end!
Bring on the lottery!