The Ended Flyers Thread

Of course you can go with an AHL coach. Sullivan's Cup-winning predecessor (Bylsma) was also an AHL coach. Helps to have the Penguins players too doesn't it? But the Flyers have also had great success with their NHL retreads - Nielsen, Hitch, Laviolette - for as long as they lasted.

Anyway, don't think you can expect this front office - even Fletcher - to hire an AHL or junior guy this time. They can justify keeping who they have - also a good AHL coach (before he failed on Long Island) - or they can make the splash. (Also I wonder if Keefe will just get promoted to Toronto assistant so they can keep him).

To say they have been truly worse under Gordon seems like a stretch. If anything it shows the problems are much deeper than coach or system.

Under the 40 games so far with Gordon, the Flyers have amassed 47 points, which projects to around 95 points for an 82 game season, which would put them squarely in the playoffs. This also included a 7 game losing streak as Hart was getting acclimated to the NHL game, so you could project another 5 points with more goalie stability and now you have a 100 point season. That also discounts any improvement to the team, which there should be with the younger players being a year better, plus the addition of Frost and a free-agent. Of course not everything could go right, but I think the Flyers are poised to be a top 5 team next year with Gordon at the helm.

I should also add that the assistant coaches with Gordon have really brought improvement to the defense and in no small way as Provorov, Sandheim in particular have made great strides of improvement under this staff's tutelage.

If you look at the team metrics under Hakstol and Gordon, they're worse under Gordon except for shooting % on the PP and save % at both 5x5 and the PK. The PP sh% is probably an anomaly, just like the historically poor PP sh% before he took over - like BABIP it tends to regress to the mean over time.

Hart came up and Elliott came back under Gordon, while before then, the Flyers easily had the worst goaltenders in the league.

Flyers under Gordon are more turnover prone, struggle to get the puck out of the D-zone and tend to make too many stretch passes instead of moving the puck up the ice.

With Hart as the starter (amazing game against the Pens), a veteran backup, goalie should be set (and a bunch of good young goalies that are 2-3 years away in Sandstrom, Ersson, Ustimenko and Fedotov).

Fletcher has a lot of assets to play with this offseason, from cap room to pick #12-15 to some young players he can deal.

The defense isn't better, they've been dominated most games of the winning streak in terms of both Corsi and scoring changes. The goalies are better by a wide margin at both 5x5 and the PK, in terms of Sv% for both scoring chances and high danger scoring chances - which wouldn't reflect better defense, better defense would be reflected in fewer scoring chances allowed, which hasn't occurred.

I am sympathetic to both arguments. Results don't lie but peripherals and luck matter too. They were also 26-12 last season in 2018 (after starting 16-14). You can't discount the shake-up but I don't know that Gordon necessarily made them any better than Hakstol, and therefore can't say he's a clear choice over other outside candidates either. At the same time, he is and will be coaching al large group of guys he's had in the AHL, and he's a former goalie breaking in a young goalie.

The thing is there aren't really any casual hockey fans, they, and most of the local media wouldn't know Joel Quenneville from Conn Smythe. Otherwise, there would be pressure - post Process, post-Bryce - to make a splash. But winning is the only splash that really matters.

Boring for a message board but basically I don't have an opinion. They wanna hire Quenneville, he's obviously good. They wanna keep Gordon, he's done a good job. They wanna interview multiple candidates and pick someone else, also good. As always I'm in favor of interviewing multiple candidates regardless.

Looks like we can continue with the off-season talk.

Honestly, fans that think the team has been playing better over the win streak (other than goalie play) aren't watching the same game I am. They still make lots of bad passes, lose their men in the zone, and just don't create enough dangerous scoring opportunities. They seem to be better than an average NHL team at converting good chances, and their goalie play has really been good lately. But that's it, and all the advanced stats show the same thing I'm seeing.

For me it doesn't make a difference. If the team is actually better under Gordon, great, keep him if they want. If it's the same as it was under Hakstol, well, I doubt a third coach is going to be the difference either. Only more development (and some new players) will, and if things go right in that regard, whoever is coaching next fall will be the beneficiary of that improvement, as much as as a reason. It's really about deciding who is the right fit for the short and medium-term needs of both the roster and the W-L expectations. Not sure we know exactly what those are for the latter yet (though we have a pretty good idea how Scott and Holmgren feel).

I just remembered it had come up. But you are raising the same core question I was. What are this team's short and medium-term goals? I don't think they are rebuilding. They didn't fire the GM and the coach to restart the clock. Whether the coach is Scott Gordon or Joel Quenneville next year they are going to be expected to make the playoffs, and win a round in or two '20-'21. Ditching your most productive goal scorer isn't going to get you there. He was merely injured earlier in the season, it turns out.

Whether that's the right move I don't know. But if you aren't trying to win I don't see JVR as someone you need to get rid of more than Voracek (bigger cap hit) or Giroux (longer contract). In for a penny, in for a pound?

They are in a pretty similar situation to last year's Phillies, I think. I would certainly be happier if they hadn't played quite so well this second half, tbh.

This team is in year 5 of the "stealth rebuild" that Hextall started in 2014, had he been honest (or allowed to be honest) the team would be further along and the fans less frustrated.

Flyers were just ranked as the #1 team in the NHL in terms of talent 23 and under by TSN.
They have Frost and Farabee on the door step, they'll have a loaded LHV roster next season.
They also have ten draft picks in this summer's draft and lots of short-term (less long-term due to RFAs coming up) cap room.

The primary need is a veteran RHD to stabilize the young defense (Gudas isn't good enough) and a 4C to strengthen that line, and maybe shuffling one of the top nine forwards for a better fit. That's about it. Otherwise, just let the kids grow into their roles.

Unless they can get a top defensman in a trade, Karlsson is the only free agent I would be interested in, and reports are he wants to stay on the West coast. Otherwise, I'm okay with Sanheim, Provorov, Ghost, Myers, Hagg and Morin. At this point Provorov and Ghostisbehere are veterans. Frost makes the team next year, Farabee and Ratcliffe the year after. Rubstov only played 14 games (he looked really good) with the Phantoms before season ending shoulder surgery. I imagine he will start next year with the Phantoms, but could be with the Flyers by mid-season.

Again, unless they get a top d-man, I'd go after a top line forward as a free agent, Panarin in particular. Stanley Cups are usually won by teams with a superstar player (Caps, Penguins, Blackhawks). The Flyers won't have any superstars, so they will need to win with depth of talent and great goaltending (like the Kings).

2019-2020 roster projection:

Forwards: Giroux, Voracek, JVR, Couturier, Konecny, Frost, Lindblom, Patrick, Laughton, Hartman, Vorobyov, Free Agent

Defense: Provorov, Sanheim, Ghostisbehere, Myers, Morin, Hagg, Gudas (trade McDonald if possible, or send him to the Phantoms to take his 5 Mil salary off the books). Morin probably needs to play a bit in the AHL and see if he can stay healthy and if he proves he is worthy of the call up, they can probably trade Gudas. Schlemko is probably the 7th defenseman in the interim.

Goalies: Hart, Talbot or Elliot

This team is too slow and lacks the players with skills that can compete with the speed teams in the league. On the other side, it doesn't have the strength/grit to out muscle teams like Caps and Bs that play that type of game. The organization needs to choose its personality and then make the appropriate moves to create it. Fletcher has a lot of work to do both on the ice and behind the bench.

Flyers don't have any superstars, hmm, just a center scoring a ppg and a top Selke candidate.
Another forward who is one of the top five scorers this decade.

Morin can't go back to the AHL without going through waivers, so that's a nonstarter.
On defense, I think they really want a veteran who can stabilize the "kiddie core" and shut opposing teams down in the D-zone, a Kimmo type, they have plenty of offense from their defense but need someone who plays defense.

I don't think they have much of a shot at landing EK or Panarin, my suspicion is they pick up a veteran for depth on the bottom six then make a trade of one of their top 7 forwards for a better top 6 guy who's a better fit.

They're gonna have a loaded LHV team next year, which means depth won't be an issue in 2020-21.

The difference between the Flyers and last year's Phillies is the Flyers have a loaded "farm system", for example Ersson was the best goalie in the Swedish version of juniors and is continuing his dominance in the playoffs - he'll be starting in the SHL next year while Sandstrom comes to LHV. The Russian UDFA they signed was one of the top defensemen in junior hockey, and so on.

I stand by the statement that the Flyers do not have a superstar. Giroux and Couts are excellent, but no one of the ilk of McDavid, Matthews, Crosby, Malkin, Kucherov, Ovechkin, etc... Look at the last 10 cup winners:

2018 Washington - Ovechkin
2017/2016/2009 Pittsburgh - Crosby/Malkin
2015/2013/2010 Chicago - Kane/Toews

Only the Kings and Bruins have also won cups in the last 10 years with teams that were solid all the way around, and all I'm saying is that is the only way the Flyers are going to win it all, they have to be solid top to bottom and Hart has to be our Brodeur. If Hart does become the bellwether goalie he is expected to be, the Flyers are not far away from being cup contenders. The question will be if they can cash in before the play of the current group of vets fade.

The current vets are going to be support players in 3 years.
Couts, Patrick, Lindblom, TK, Frost, Farabee, Ratcliffe,
and behind them Rubtsov, Kase, Laczynski, Allison, Strome, Cates . . .
Ghost, Provorov, Myers, Sanheim, behind them Hogberg, Zamula, . . .
Hart with Sandstrom, Ersson, Ustimenko and Fedotov.

The organization has tremendous depth, it comes down to Fletcher making the right moves, not getting impatient and trying to force them to win now. Done right, this team is set up to be a cup contender for a decade.

If Giroux and Couts aren't superstars, neither are Kane and Toews.
Chicago won because of great depth, Hossa, Sharp, Keith, etc.

Farabee is signing a pro contract and leaving college after one year.