The Coming Minor League Apocalypse

[Philsmania]

I hope Corcaigh is able to save their football squad.

[Philsmania]

MiLB appears to folding to MLB's demands.

Sources: Minor League Baseball Ready To Agree To Significant Reduction In Teams

[zambonir]

Very sad. I don't see how they can even make plans right now. They targeted 42 markets for deletion (or "demotion") but who's to say the 120 markets they consider keepers are all going to make it? Of course that's why MILB is giving in, they have bigger problems. And to fight another year and lose would just make it even harder for the markets that are getting cut.

It looks like MLB has made some concessions, though not without a price.

Now, MiLB and MLB are expected to discuss the parameters of a system where the two sides could work together to ensure that most of the cities that currently have affiliated baseball will have ties to MLB clubs, even if those cities’ teams will not be fielding draftees and signees of the MLB club. It wouldn’t be MLB’s initial proposal, but a system that has been adjusted to give those cities a better chance of having a viable long-term baseball operation.

Such a desire [to survive] may lead MiLB teams to agree to a plan which would allow MLB to take over control of the governance of the minors, a possibility Ballpark Digest first reported last week.

[Lawman]

Does this include unaffiliated leagues?

[zambonir]

It does not, though baseball's stated plan is to invite two of those teams (St. Paul and Sugarland) into affililated ball. They aren't necessarily interested.

One assumes some markets might try and join, or even form, an unaffiliated league, depending how it plays out. But I think the Frontier and Atlantic League models are both far too rich for most of the 40 markets on the chopping block. Their attendance and player pay would put them more in the college/semi-pro/wood bat tier.

[andyb]

I guess it is possible they could create clusters of wood bat leagues for undrafted college players in places like upstate NY. I wonder also if the short season leagues become complex leagues. If the NY-Penn league is such a money loser, just add a GCL Advanced tier that starts play in late June for the college draftees. Or even start that advanced tier in extended Spring.

[zambonir]

But isn't part of the plan to move the draft to August? College players who are good enough would maybe get a little time in Lakewood, the rest would just be at the complex and not truly start their pro careers until the following spring. Possibly they don't even get paid (beyond their bonus) in their draft year, it's like "optional" workouts.

(Edit, okay, I guess that initial August thing was eventually corrected. Early July.)

How Moving The MLB Draft Would Impact College Baseball

[andyb]

No matter when they held the draft, there could be a 60-80 game complex season if they wanted it. I know part of the original intent was for MLB to draft and pay many fewer players. We'll just need to see the details if that is true.

MLB is risking losing lots of potential players to other sports. All the later round draftees (especially if they can only get $20K bonuses). More HS players could go to college, but it is not like colleges will have any extra money now. The more likely scenario is more 20th round draftees just give up baseball because the options are worse than they used to be.

I still think only a handful of new draftees would make it to Lakewood in their draft year. The only scenario where that might happen is if the Low A quality of play drops precipitously. Of course drafting half the number of players might be the thing that allows that to happen.

[bkox]

Milb saying the story is false that an agreement was reached

Regarding ongoing negotiations ️ pic.twitter.com/U3MTM9rOPg

— Minor League Baseball ( @MiLB ) April 21, 2020

[zambonir]

This seems likely to end the same way as when the manager gets fired.

[kmc1019]

Williamsport would be on the chopping block, per Inquirer report:

Phillies’ affiliate in Williamsport could be eliminated by Major League...

[zambonir]

Yup we basically knew that already. Even just losing this season was gonna be tough on them. It sure does seem incongruous given what else happens there though (including the MLB game in recent years).

[Philsmania]

I get the sense that most of the NYPL teams will be wiped out. It's an old league with a lot of teams in places that can only charitably be classified as cities (as opposed to big towns), the Rust Belt, no less playing in old facilities.

Essentially, it looks like all the rookie leagues above the GCL and AZL are being shut down. Will teams be limited in the number of complex-based rookie teams that they have (ie. like the Phillies have two)?

[BostonRoss]

My recollection of the plan is that the NYPL would be no more. Brooklyn would be moved up to AA, replacing Binghamton in the Eastern League, but the rest of the teams would be gone.

[andyb]

The basic plan eliminates all the short season non-complex leagues. Not teams but leagues. There will be 4 levels with 30 teams plus an uncertain level of complex activity (GCL, Arizona, DSL).

Then to pick those 120 teams they have suggested a handful of short season teams with good stadiums move up and replace the weak markets in the top 120. We probably would also get 3 leagues at each level rather than the 2 that exist in AAA and Low A. This would be to create more compact leagues with less travel.

There are some pragmatic points to this. Smaller leagues is one. I think it would have been better to go gradual. Maybe start with a cut to 150 to retain the short season leagues and eliminate the 12 worst teams at first. This cut to 120 was really about cutting the draft and the total number of players that each team will be allowed to have under contract. The Phillies have 4 complex league teams at the moment. I imagine these would be cut to 2 under the new system as total contracts for each organization might have a limit (like 200 instead of the close to 300 they much have now).

All these stories skip the downsizing aspect of the plan. It is more newsworthy to report on teams being eliminated than on MLB employing 3,000 fewer minor league players (if they cut 100 per organization). That is really how MLB intends to save their pennies here.

[zambonir]

But it truly is pennies. In that sense I'm almost inclined to cut them a break, that if it still felt like a worthwhile developmental strategy, cost would not hold them back. But in reality it's like everything else in the game, half the teams probably do want to save that money (and stop the other half from continuing to be able to field extra teams) and even the rich teams have never been afraid to squeeze every dime where they can.

And the big-picture of what's good for the game in general, and for fans and communities, does not exist at all. I guess we'll see what they actually work out though because 10 or 20 teams could easily go under this fall just from not having a season.

If memory serves most (but not all) of the Northwest League is going to convert to full-season single A, as they are the only single A teams their affiliate clubs have (unlike NY-Penn).

[andyb]

Don't disgaree with any of that. Was just trying to point out that all these stories talk about dropped teams and NOT mlb organizations having one third fewer players under contract. It is like every one of these small town franchises has a Congressman and other politicians pulling for them - and nobody is pulling for the three thousand players who can't play baseball any more.

The MLB product won't be diminished that much because most of these players will not make it. But it will be diminished some because there are late round choices who do make an impact. That is just a shame if the goal is saving pennies.

[BaseballCat]

These teams are a part of Americana and my summer experience. I have the time this summer to drive across country to see lots of baseball, nature and landmarks. Oh and see my brother in the Seattle area!! Not sure if I will do now since the trip was baseball centered. I was looking forward to seeing teams I had never seen in the northwest and pioneer leagues. If this goes through many of these teams will be no more and they will get no chance to say goodbye to their fans and baseball enthusiasts like myself. I drive to see the Danville braves and Burlington royals often over the summer. Pulaski has put a major amount of money into their facility. Burlington just renovated. It will hurt not to see them or say goodbye to the experience or the staff. There are a few Appalachian league teams I have not seen. Hindsight would have made me see them last year (Or this year if I could). Some of these teams have solid fan bases. If this goes through, it will crush many. I wish there was something less drastic and gradual. I love the older ballparks and the focus on baseball. I few eventually my own Lynchburg team will fall victim to this as the new ownership wiggles out of their lease for a more lucrative spot that may open up. I miss you minor leagues as we usually ramp up after the school year is over.

All 42 Teams Reportedly Up For Elimination In MLB's Minor League Reduction...

[andyb]

And 14 teams will be promoted from short season leagues to replace the 14 higher level teams being eliminated.

Surprised that Frederick is on there. I have been there a few times and it is a nice stadium and I though they drew pretty well with the nearby Orioles. Clearly who owns the team is a factor along with the quality of the facilities.

[BaseballCat]

Not sure this is the final list, but Frederick is definitely on the block. It is a great place to see a game. The article was the quickest I could find. Tennessee loses many. Just sad in general.