The Coming Minor League Apocalypse

[zambonir]

I think merits its own thread, though it might be a while before there are tangible (rather than proposed) details to discuss

M.L.B. Said to Be Pushing for Overhaul of Minor Leagues

One plan that has been discussed, according to two people familiar with the negotiations who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the matter, would convert some teams from the lower-level minor leagues — short-season, rookie ball and lower Class A — into a so-called Dream League of undrafted players looking to break into professional baseball. Teams in that league would be co-owned and operated by M.L.B. and Minor League Baseball — a departure from the current system, in which the vast majority of teams are independently owned and operated. Part of the proposal could include a plan to cut Baseball’s amateur draft in half, to 20 rounds, which would reduce the player pool by 600 and subsequently eliminate the need for roughly 20 teams.

MLB Proposal Would Eliminate 42 Minor League Baseball Teams

At the root of the disagreement is a preliminary proposal MLB has offered to reduce its number of Player Development Contracts (the affiliation agreement by which MLB teams provide players and staff to MiLB teams) from 160 to 120. That reduction would completely eliminate the four, non-complex Rookie-level and short-season classifications from the minor leagues.

The proposal also completely reorganizes the full-season minor leagues. While there would still be Triple-A, Double-A, high Class A and low Class A, those four levels would be completely reworked to make the leagues much more geographically compact. In Triple-A, the Pacific Coast League would shift from 16 teams to 10. The International League would grow to 20 teams. The 14-team low Class A South Atlantic League would be turned into a six-team league with a new Mid-Atlantic league springing up.

The short-season Northwest League would move to full-season ball.

Under MLB’s proposal, some teams would be asked to move from Class A to Triple-A. Others would be asked to move from Triple-A to Class A, and there would be other less dramatic moves as well.

[bkeich]

The problem with moving teams 2 steps (AAA to A or vice versa) is that, in general, AAA is in larger towns with higher attendance. I dont see how that would really work.

I think the structure does need to be addressed, I understand what they are trying to do here, cut costs. A free agent league is a good idea on paper, but I doubt it would survive, more likely would be something like a camp type setting for players to play in, maybe a few hundred players, and teams given the chance to sign a certain number out of that camp. You would probably also have to include a minimum number that team must sign, but that is arguable (to keep the camp alive).

As part of this I would hope they will also do something to improve the pay for minor league players. I know that isnt the focus of this, but it needs to be addressed by the owners before they get themselves sued and give the game a bad name once people realize just how low the pay is. Put a minimum in the league, something not too crazy, but enough to avoid the bad press ($25K plus expenses, or something like that).

[zambonir]

For sure, the spin here is that it will be better pay and better conditions for the players - the ones who still get to be employed, that is. They are already being sued.

There are enough variables between A and AAA where some markets would work fine as one or the other. My local team, the single A Hillsboro Hops, for instance, is no different from my former local team, the AAA Round Rock Express. Both suburbs in large metro areas. Lakewood isn't really that less populated an area than Allentown.

Another team that was mentioned as going to AAA is the Mets' Brooklyn club.

They are also saying they might move the draft to August (thus, no short-season leagues).

[schillingfan]

AAA teams tend to have larger stadiums, too. I’m assuming teams switching from A to AAA might have to find cities willing to rebuild stadiums or build new ones.

[andyb]

It does seem a bit misguided in the way it just wants to move teams around to reduce travel. I suspect there would be huge resistance in some cases. This does not mean they should not go to smaller leagues, however. They could go to 3 leagues at each level and shift some clubs around to reduce travel. It sounds like they might want to take all the short season leagues and eliminate them too, though that is also odd in that the complex leagues cost them almost no money.

Maybe not drafting 20 players a year and tightening up the rosters in the Dominican league would save some pennies, but I am not sure how much. For development purposes I could see eliminating all of those leagues and basically having all the young players in glorified instructional league play for a year or two.

[zambonir]

Yeah, stadium size would be one issue but how many AAA teams are really selling out? Again, a ton of variables. No, you couldn't actually swap Allentown and Lakewood, but you could easily find a single A market/stadium to replace some of the teams that only draw 4-5,000. I don't think they would be doing too many of these moves. They also want to add St. Paul and Sugarland (though who knows if those teams want to do it).

It sounds like they would not eliminate the complex leagues, or at least, domestic players would join the international guys to start out in what is now the DSL.

[andyb]

They are also saying they might move the draft to August (thus, no short-season leagues).

This would save money, but of course you are then trusting some development to summer leagues. Or any top prospect would just take the summer off because they did not want to reduce their draft stock.

And are the poor Latin American kids going to play in the DSL for 4-5 years until they are ready for Low A?

[zambonir]

Seems like it's less about saving money overall as another way to stop the teams with money from spending more than other teams.

Also you gotta wonder about the possiblity of an international draft. Especially if you had too, basically there would be several thousand fewer players signed to actual contracts.

[baseballoldie]

The BA article also talks about higher compensation for minor league players as much as 50% higher. If they are basing it on the current minor league salaries, it doesn't solve anything. Instead of a minor leaguer making 7,000 a year, he would make 10,000 a year - don't see how that helps anything as it relates to the players. Still below poverty.

[andyb]

I think they see the players living in some dorm at the complex, so the slightly higher salary plus fewer living expenses would be better for them.

Or of course they could spend a few million per team for the good of the game and the players, but why do that? Other leagues like the NFL get away with almost no development costs. Why can't baseball do it too!

[xogfog]

Other leagues like the NFL get away with almost no development costs. Why can't baseball do it too!

College Football and Basketball are big time TV events. Hockey is huge in Canada and has a dedicated core of fans. Baseball is relegated to only warm weather territories in the off season and minor league baseball doesn't draw well unless it is the only game in town in sports deprived areas. Also, there is little TV money for College and minor league baseball.

[zambonir]

And of course, while NCAA athletes are considerably better off than low minor league baseball players, they are still wildly undercompensated relative to the $ their sport generates, all at no cost to the pro teams too.

Major junior hockey has the same issues as baseball minor leagues - class action suits and also some interest from US state governments. But hockey is so much smaller - if you're drafted and signed you make a pretty good living for a while, even in the ECHL. That's also because ECHL and AHL players have their own union.

Come to think of it this whole thing is not that different than what happened in minor pro hockey. The AA/High A caliber leagues, of which there were as many as four in the '90s, is now one, there's only one AAA league (there had been two, though the IHL was more independent than affiliated) and a handful of the bigger lower-league markets moved up to the AHL. And now at the bottom there's a few semi-pro leagues, while a lot of the former minor pro markets got lower level junior teams.

[phillychuck]

Baseball minors need reform, but I'm not sure what I'm reading here is what is called for. It will be interesting in any event.

[andyb]

I don't disagree with any of that. Baseball seems jealous. And they are willing to cut their development costs as long as all 30 teams play by the same rules. Late round draftees and slower developing Dominican kids no longer need to apply. MLB gets 90-95% of their players from rounds 1-20 and top Latin American signees. Maybe the lesser kids can make a name in an Independent league. Good luck to them as baseball won't pay for their development any more.

The product on the field will probably not change much if all teams play by the same rules. Smart development of low round picks is just a path to the majors that will disappear for everyone. That won't make the game better, but it'll make it cheaper and most fans won't notice the difference (except for the Mike Piazzas who would not exist in this brave new baseball world).

[andyb]

One other thing - this would hurt the Phillies. We sensed a competitive advantage in fielding a 2nd GCL and DSL team. Now all those go away but I imagine teams would be allowed to have a certain number of players under contract that would play in instructional type leagues until they are ready for full season ball. An organizational roster limit would eliminate the advantage wealthier teams see in signing more players.

Some like Houston disagree of course in terms of needing all that quantity, but this rule would eliminate that potential advantage and force everyone down Houston's path.

[phillychuck]

I don't see this as a bad thing eventually after it gets tweaked...maybe--A+ through AAA under traditional major league control, all lower leagues funded by MLB but most players in these leagues are FAs. Draftees go immediately to A+ or play a maximum of 1 or 2 years under team control in lower leagues, then they are FAs if teams don't promote them to A+. Extend the draft to LA and only draft players 18 and over--before that, do a large, unaffiliated development league in the Dominican with generous housing, board, and coaching funding. Improve pay in the FA leagues and make them year-round. Only draft 15 rounds or so in the domestic draft.

Just my first thoughts...

[andyb]

The more I look at this it really has nothing to do with anything beyond saving costs. If teams wanted to have only 4 minor league teams and thought that gave them a competitive advantage they would do it. Like the draft, the fixed pools for both the draft and international players, this is purely about cost control. Some of that is justified, but this will only hit the players who get $10,000 bonuses and need years to develop. As Matt Winkelman tweeted, this hits the future Cesar Hernandez and Ranger Suarez.

I fear the players will sell out their younger brethren too of course, as I am guessing MLB will dangle a higher luxury tax limit to them so they don't sue. Agents will probably figure out how to, but it might be hard finding clients with standing.

None of this is really illegal (though maybe time to look at that antitrust exemption). But there sure is not a lot of evidence it produces better baseball players. The NBA would be better if teams could have 25-30 players in their organization (their entire G league team for instance). The NFL would be better if each team did not field a half dozen players off the street each week because of injuries too. They just choose to save money and not have their product be better because there is no competition. Maybe baseball goes too far with huge organizations, but their product is better because of it. I guess being 2% better is not worth the extra $5 million per organization though.

[zambonir]

I fear the players will sell out their younger brethren too of course, as I am guessing MLB will dangle a higher luxury tax limit to them so they don't sue. Agents will probably figure out how to, but it might be hard finding clients with standing.

I don't think the MLBPA gets a say in this at all. It doesn't affect any of their members and the minor league agreement has nothing to do with the CBA. They don't have any standing to negotiate, let alone sue.

[andyb]

That is true. But if Mike Trout and Aaron Judge and Jason Verlander and Max Scherzer all came out and said this was wrong, it might change some minds. The NBA of course (Lebron) failed miserably this past week in speaking out on an issue of the league doing something wrong to just make more money, so I am not getting my hopes up. And of course this just impacts the last 5%-10% of rosters (that 30th round pick will be replaced by an 18th round pick who is just not quite as good after a few years of development), so will the players making big money really care?

[zambonir]

Well yeah - as far as I'm concerned MLB stars should be working towards opening their union to all drafted players. Or starting a separate minor league union. That would change this negotiation considerably. But the MLBPA barely cares about its own bottom 10%, let alone the bottom of the minors - they are no better than the owners when it comes to buying into a system of "If you make it, you'll get yours eventually." They are extremely worried about how that's changing in MLB, but not so much about fringe GCL players.