The 2018 Phillies managerial search

[zambonir]

I wasn't thinking of any specific players, though the answer at this point would be guys like Franco and Eickhoff, who I hope can be helped by some new ideas (certainly the Astros' pitching philosophy is made for Eickhoff but it's not like the Phillies hadn't already thought of that).

I don't really see this process as a bad thing either. It's not gonna be about personality conflicts of people who can't "get with the program." Rather, we simply have not even begun to see what this roster looks like or how it will play as assembled by Klentak (who is still working with almost entirely inherited players except for Velasquez), his analytics team, and his manager. They are going to cut bait on some guys who don't fit, or if they think they can improve upon them. They are going to be a lot less sentimental about this than the fans are, even as some fans criticize and complain and lament the recent W-L record (paradoxically, IMO).

[allentown]

Franco? His career is sinking like a rock and 2018 may well be his final shot at being an MLB starting 3B. Stairs was unable to fix his poor offensive approach. If Franco is other than a completely stubborn idiot, he should be grasping whatever suggestions his new hitting coach and Kapler are pushing with both hands and doing his very best to implement them. Franco has been Franco for 3 years in MLB. It worked year one, but now pitchers know how to get him out and he has taken a big step down in performance in season two and a further step down this past season. HRs are good, although they're getting cheaper of late as baseball evolves, but the Phillies can't get by with Franco's OBP. If he can't see that now, perhaps Kapler can help him see it. If not, perhaps my way or the highway to Allentown for a few months won't be the worst thing in the world.

[julio]

They are going to be a lot less sentimental about this than the fans are, even as some fans criticize and complain and lament the recent W-L record (paradoxically, IMO).

I certainly expect this to be the case - and I certainly hope it is.

For the most part, I wouldn't be too concerned about fan sentimentality. There aren't a lot of players on the roster who have been in Philly long enough to be "sentimental favorites." Freddy Galvis, obviously. But after that? We're talking about guys with less than four years total service time. We only have five arbitration-eligible players on the roster (plus one guy - Herrera - signed for 2018). We all have our favorites (I'm an Altherr fan, for instance), but broad sentimental attachment by the fan base?

The Galvis situation will be interesting. He's the one player who's been with the club long enough to be a sentimental favorite - and sentimentality is a large part of his fan appeal, since his actual performance.... well. But he's been built up by the PR folks in the organization, and by local media coverage - IMHO, at least in part because he's very likable, and his job is clearly threatened by the presence of J.P. Crawford. The organization continues to blow Galvis' horn - witness the current promotion of Freddy for the SS Gold Glove. But he's a FA in waiting (after 2018), and moving him makes sense - in terms of available talent to replace him, in terms of his likely departure in one year anyway, in pretty much any terms (except perhaps the marketing department's wishes!). As I said, it will be interesting to see how Klentak deals with this. I would hope that Klentak doesn't leave this one to Kapler - that he just deals with it.

[Austinfan]

I think we can expect some changes:
1) free swingers will be devalued, more emphasis on OBP and OPS, less on HRs and RBIs and BA.
2) Klentak has made it clear he doesn't like pitchers who run deep counts and can't get out of 5 innings, uh, Velasquez is on thin ice
3) A John Kruk clone would not be a good fit
4) Dumb and dumber can find a new home

[andyb]

It is not like saying teams now emphasize OBP is rocket science. Just about every team in baseball does things like that.

If there are bigger changes with the Phillies compared to last year I would bet it is in the proper recognition of defensive value on the field, not just offensive stats (even OPS). Fewer experiments like Ruf in the outfield (or even Hoskins there).

And more emphasis on advanced data like defensive positioning, pitch spin rates, etc. To say we will now suddenly prioritize OBP and throwing strikes on the mound is not saying much. Klentak knew exactly what he was getting with Velasquez - a guy with top of the rotation stuff that hopefully could be taught all the little things.

[Austinfan]

What teams say they do and what they actually do are often two different things.
Phillies had a conservative bias throughout the organization, the change started before Klentak, but I expect it to accelerate, from scouts to minor league coaches.

One thing I do expect in the future is less emphasis on velocity with pitchers and more on shorter swings with hitters.
As more hitters enter the league able to turn on a high 90s FB, velocity becomes less important relative to command and secondary stuff.
But as you can see with Bellinger, as the minimum velocity inches up (now approaching 91 MPH), hitters with long swings have to commit early and can't adjust to breaking stuff.
It'll be interesting to see what happens with Cozens, for example.

[zambonir]

I certainly expect this to be the case - and I certainly hope it is.

For the most part, I wouldn't be too concerned about fan sentimentality. There aren't a lot of players on the roster who have been in Philly long enough to be "sentimental favorites." Freddy Galvis, obviously. But after that? We're talking about guys with less than four years total service time. We only have five arbitration-eligible players on the roster (plus one guy - Herrera - signed for 2018). We all have our favorites (I'm an Altherr fan, for instance), but broad sentimental attachment by the fan base?

The Galvis situation will be interesting. He's the one player who's been with the club long enough to be a sentimental favorite - and sentimentality is a large part of his fan appeal, since his actual performance.... well. But he's been built up by the PR folks in the organization, and by local media coverage - IMHO, at least in part because he's very likable, and his job is clearly threatened by the presence of J.P. Crawford. The organization continues to blow Galvis' horn - witness the current promotion of Freddy for the SS Gold Glove. But he's a FA in waiting (after 2018), and moving him makes sense - in terms of available talent to replace him, in terms of his likely departure in one year anyway, in pretty much any terms (except perhaps the marketing department's wishes!). As I said, it will be interesting to see how Klentak deals with this. I would hope that Klentak doesn't leave this one to Kapler - that he just deals with it.

Yeah, I mean, as a list, given most people's intense interest in prospects and the minors, we get sentimental about homegrown players is all. Altherr is great example, I really like him and hope he's an All-Star but he wasn't even on BA's projected 2020 line-up. (OF was Williams/Herrera/Halsey, and I don't think it will be that either).

I think trading Hernandez and keeping Freddy around until the deadline as a utility guy might be the best scenario, mostly because I don't think there are that many teams looking for a SS, and if they are they can do better (Cozart as a FA, someone else in a trade). So his value as a player may exceed what you can get for him, and when the deadline comes his value will either be the same or better (if there's an injury or a contender values him off the bench with the Phillies paying his salary).

Unless you think the most value he can bring is not being there to muddy the waters, which is fair enough!

[julio]

I think trading Hernandez and keeping Freddy around until the deadline as a utility guy might be the best scenario, mostly because I don't think there are that many teams looking for a SS, and if they are they can do better (Cozart as a FA, someone else in a trade). So his value as a player may exceed what you can get for him, and when the deadline comes his value will either be the same or better (if there's an injury or a contender values him off the bench with the Phillies paying his salary).

Well, if they trade Cesar Hernandez, Galvis won't be kept around as a utility guy - he'll be the second baseman, at least for the first half (or longer) of the season. I really don't think the Phils intend to promote Scott Kingery in April - or in May or June, unless he goes completely bonkers in AAA.

There's a case to be made for trading Hernandez instead of Galvis - he may be more valuable short-term, and he's under team control for several years, whereas Galvis is a pending FA. So I'd be OK with moving Cesar and shifting Freddy to 2B for 2018 (or part of 2018), recognizing that Galvis is presumably gone after 2018, one way or another.

[schillingfan]

It would be interesting to know who was feeding Heyman this stuff, but to me Andrew Friedman and his people carry a lot more weight than the anonymous people. He had Kapler in Tampa, he hired Kapler in LA, he has gotten both of those teams to the WS

I could definitely see a bunch of old-time scouting types have a negative opinion on Kapler even if his developmental success is very real. He does sound like kind of a jerk also though again some of that could be generational.

Personally, I think he will do some innovative things strategically. I just don't know if players will want to play for him. A good manager gets the most out of 25 guys. Kapler seems the type that would want to make sure all 25 guys are doing things his way (or the highway). There is potential for both success and failure with that approach and since there is zero track record here - I just have no clue as to whether he will be a good manager.

That really was the chip Kelly problem. I am not a fan of systems in that sense. I think it's much better to try to use the talents you have and mold the system.

[allentown]

I think it's much better to try to use the talents you have and mold the system.

I think this is absolutely true and a very big factor in football and basketball -- still a factor in baseball, but not as much as the other major team sports. A determination to pound square pegs into round holes is not a recipe for success. If a manager/GM last long enough they can build a roster of 'their type' players, but any new manager/GM have to make the best use of the available talent they inherit and fill holes/add around the edges. That's why management continuity is so important and why I like to see the final manager/GM earlier than late in the rebuild process. The Phillies have a lot of pitching holes to fill, but most of the future lineup is made up of young guys already in the system. Either Kapler likes the sort of young players we have or he is almost out of luck.

[zambonir]

Yeah, I don't really see this with baseball at all, at least not these days. I mean, you can have a manager who wants to play Earl Weaver and a line-up of nothing but Ben Reveres or vice-versa but that is so obviously untenable it would never happen, and it's a lot easier to change your line-up in baseball (both immediately and year-to-year).

But in this case, the Phillies are going to be the kind of team that Klentak and Kapler want, together, and the GM will be making sure the players fit that. If there are players currently in the system (be it A ball or the majors ) who Klentak doesn't care for we'll find that out soon enough. But having one hitter or one fielder who doesn't quite work for your styles or preferences is easy to fix or easy to work around, it's not like calling a defense or offensive line scheme.

[andyb]

Hopefully Klentak's style is the best baseball player per dollar. This means you could have free swingers side by side with more patient players. It is all about value. Not assuming he wants players that have patient approaches necessarily. Odubel Herrera has been our best player the last few years and he is far from your stereotypical "Moneyball" player. Except that he is just a good baseball player that adds value on defense and on the bases and hits enough with his free swinging approach to be really good.

[julio]

Hopefully Klentak's style is the best baseball player per dollar. This means you could have free swingers side by side with more patient players. It is all about value.

Not sure I agree. Your statement is true, if dollars are the limiting factor. But if the limiting factor is roster spots (e.g., the club has plenty of money to improve all 25 roster spots), then "value" is represented by productivity per roster spot, not per dollar.

[andyb]

Probably true. I guess our financial situation is unique that dollars don't matter for a few years. Main point is I want a GM who finds value in any type of player. A GM with a set type is by definition ignoring valuable players who might not fit that type.

[julio]

Probably true. I guess our financial situation is unique that dollars don't matter for a few years. Main point is I want a GM who finds value in any type of player. A GM with a set type is by definition ignoring valuable players who might not fit that type.

Oh, I agree with this. The key is to understand the value in a given player's skill set - and not to focus on/obsess over what a given player cannot do. And Herrera's a good example - he's never going to be the patient, control-the-strike-zone hitter. He's also never likely to overcome the concentration lapses (at least, not without pharmacological assistance). But he does a lot of good things; if he's the 4 WAR player he was in 2015/2016, you live with his shortcomings - at least until you can replace him with a better player, overall, in the outfield (which wouldn't be a trivial thing to do).

Herrera looks to me to be the outlier to the "kind" of player that Klentak (and by extension, Kapler) is looking for. But...Klentak has already demonstrated his willingness to live with an outlier like Herrera; Klentak gave Herrera a five-year contract, when he didn't have to. Klentak's judgment appears to be that Kapler, too, can live with a Herrera - or he wouldn't have hired him.

[allentown]

The more significant question is can they live with Maikel Franco. I doubt they should live with 2017-vintage Maikel. It's a shame. I was very impressed by the Maikel Franco I saw at Reading and his first season in Philly.

[julio]

The more significant question is can they live with Maikel Franco. I doubt they should live with 2017-vintage Maikel. It's a shame. I was very impressed by the Maikel Franco I saw at Reading and his first season in Philly.

I'm guessing Franco gets 2018, or a good part of it, to turn things around. After that, unless he's bringing something to the table that wasn't there in 2017 (e.g., OBP, OPS, defense), they'll find a replacement. Notwithstanding some others, I don't think that will be Freddy Galvis - he'll be looking at FA, and I just don't see him hanging around to play 3B. Free agent 3B signing for 2019? I don't see an obvious candidate in the system.

If they trade one of Galvis/Henandez, and Franco continues to struggle, I could see a mid-season call-up of Kingery, with the "veteran" shifting to 3B - but if that's Galvis, I would see it as only a short-term fix, because of the pending FA. If it were Hernandez...well, that would depend on his defense at 3B, which is an unknown. He probably has the arm, but the reaction time? Don't know. It's certainly worth finding out - Cesar's OBP is something I think Klentak/Kapler will see as highly valuable.

[Austinfan]

You always look to upgrade, but that mostly occurs in player acquisition and development.
Phillies added two analytic guys and three new scouts, looks like Klentak is starting to rebuild the organization (and Middleton has green lighted additional spending on staff).

Herrera is a good example, because he's shown the ability to be patient, first couple months of 2016.
I think the difference may be communication and expectations, if Herrera is willing to be patient he can bat 1-3 in the order, if not, 6-7th.
You make that clear to him that hitting at the top of the order requires posting a higher OBP.
Then he decides what he's going to do.

I think where Klentak will have his impact will be drafting and player development, if you emphasize certain skills then you'll have more players with those skills.
But you'll still draft free swingers, but not at the top of the draft.
Darrick Hall is less disciplined than Hoskins, but in the 14th round you can work with him in player development.
Same with pitchers, you can gamble on a Tirado, if you don't give up much for him, but Velasquez should not be a centerpiece of a major trade.
Last draft, Haseley (quick bat, good eye), Howard, Seabold, average FBs with above average command.

[zambonir]

It's certainly not out of the question that they could keep Hernandez and move Kingery to 3B. Justin Turner and Alex Bregman were not 3B in college. They both played more SS (Bregman, mostly SS, Turner was a 2B) but Hernandez hasn't been on that side of the field regularly in forever either. We always remember Utley but Polanco was able to do it easily.

This is why it also wouldn't bother me if Crawford plays 3B, but there's no current reason to do that long-term. I don't believe it would be the apocalypse if Crawford was the player moving around the field for three months; the problem would be playing time. Hey, what if Machado wants to go back to SS?

[julio]

It's certainly not out of the question that they could keep Hernandez and move Kingery to 3B

I think if I were going to move one of Hernandez or Kingery to 3B (assuming they're both on the roster and productive at the major league level), that I'd want to move Hernandez, not Kingery - because Cesar's defensive play at 2B is nothing special (zone statistics are consistently negative, RF/9 and fielding percentage are average), whereas Kingery is, to all reports and observations, very good in the field. This assumes that Hernandez wouldn't be a disaster defensively at 3B, but of course we don't know that.