Sixers 2017 Offseason

[Austinfan]

Aggregating these numbers provides some interesting conclusions.
The probability of success falls off as you'd expect until the second round, where it's essentially flat up to pick 50, then falls off a cliff.
I suspect this reflects the Euro-stash phenomenon, where teams with longer horizons can draft more talented prospects if they're willing to wait a couple year to obtain them.

So a 2nd rd pick up to 50 has about 1/2 the value of a late 1st rd pick and about 1/3 the value of a mid-first round pick.

Star/Solid/Role

1-5: 67% 21% 9%
6-10: 31% 24% 26%
11-15: 15% 20% 20%
16-20: 8% 16% 26%
21-25: 6% 22% 26%
26-30: 6% 8% 23%
31-40: 3.5% 4% 13.5%
41-50: 3% 5.5% 15.5%
51-60: 0.7% 1.4% 3.7%

[bkeich]

Those numbers actually don't surprise me very much, but they do prove out what I thought was true. The first 10 or so picks are very important, then later 1st rounders and 2nd rounders have depreciating, but flattened value, then it falls off a cliff. Even your list of players really only had a couple solid players after 45 (and oddly enough both of them are star or near-star value).

I do hope that the Sixers can make use of all these 2nd rounders in some way other than just making the picks. Trade them for veterans on friendly contracts, combine them for better picks (even if they are in the future). I am fairly suspect of later picks that are stashed foreign players, despite the news that one of our "stashes" is in Philly today. Saric was not a late stash pick, he was an early pick and is a more special case.

[bigegypt0417]

Not sure the Celtics do it but if you're a sixers fan you may be able to handle it...I would do that trade scenario.

NBA Mock Draft 2017: Celtics, Sixers with stunning trade for No. 1 pick; Lonzo...

[Squire]

Yup. I'd do that deal.

[bigegypt0417]

Yup. I'd do that deal.

At some point the Celtics will have to win something with all those assets they've had in their pockets.

[jimbomill]

I would not do that pick. Division rival Celtics win in every aspect of that deal, by a wide margin. Fultz is not M. Jordan.

[bigegypt0417]

If the scouting reports are true then Fultz is the exact perfect fit for this team and we have the assets to not be too impacted by it.

It also creates some roster space which we really do need.

[allentown]

Nope,that is an awful deal for us. I just don't think Fultz is that much better than the choices available at 3. Next year's LA pick could well be another 3. This trade has a serious potential to cripple the Sixers and totally derail the rebuild. It is a 100% bet on sustained health for Embiid as it removes his two remaining backups. It also strengthens our future primary rival.

[bigegypt0417]

Nope,that is an awful deal for us. I just don't think Fultz is that much better than the choices available at 3. Next year's LA pick could well be another 3. This trade has a serious potential to cripple the Sixers and totally derail the rebuild. It is a 100% bet on sustained health for Embiid as it removes his two remaining backups. It also strengthens our future primary rival.

Okafor has virtually no chance to be of any impact for us and honestly there is no way I want him at center if Embiid is hurt.

The lakers will be better next year...not a playoff team but I can see them in the 8-12 range. At some point we will shed some roster spots but also not impact the core.

I'm not crazy about the deal but I think saying it will cripple the rebuild is a bit dramatic...IMO

[jimbomill]

Well said!

[bkeich]

I actually don't think the Lakers will be better. They will get Ball, and while he might grow into a very good player as he matures (and gets rid of his crazy father), he is going to be a cancer next year (or more precisely his father will be). I really do think that the Lakers will be a train wreck next year as the infighting will blow up. Don't get me wrong, I have always been a bit of a Laker fan and am a HUGE fan of Magic, but I see disaster coming his way next year.

I would trade Okafor and/or Holmes of course, anyone would to move up I think, but I would not trade that draft pick. Honestly I would be more likely to include the Sixers pick.(but I really would not include any first round pick to move up just to get Fultz, who is not an obvious superstar player)

[allentown]

I didn't say it would cripple the rebuild, I said it could cripple the rebuild -- if Embiid can't play 36 minutes a night consistently, then weare a team without a center. Given history of Embiid's playing time since we drafted him, that's a huge bet. There is lot of guard talent available at 3.

[allentown]

I'd rather lose Okafor than lose Holmes. I certainly don't want to trade both of them.

[gmwannabe]

no way. i'm with town on this. fultz had a great freshman year, but this guy is writing like he is all world. i think he is overrated. lesser competition and not tall enough to be all world. celtics would be laughing all the way to the bank on this one. Ainge wouldn't even wait for the fax to come through, he'd fly to philly to pick it up personally.
gm

[bigegypt0417]

The only asset in this trade that matters to me is the lakers pick. If they go out and make a splash and add a paul George then they are a team that will be closer to .500.

Okafor and Holmes would more than likely not get much playing time on that Celtics roster...

[allentown]

Well, if that's the case what's the point in our sending both of them to Boston. This writer clearly leans Celtics, so he thinks they would help Boston. While I agree that Fultz is the best guard and best overall prospect in this draft, I see him as a subpar 1.1, not as valuable as Simmons last year or most guys who go 1.1. I think all of the expectation that Boston might trade down is due a realization that Boston doesn't see him as a worthy 1.1.

[Dirk41]

Watching these Finals, even beyond PGs and Curry and Kyrie, wings are proving to be so valuable to winning. I'm coming around on Jackson and if they stay at 3, would expect him to be the pick. Could he guard point guards?

[jimbomill]

The wings you see in this year's finals can shoot. That's one characteristic not attributed to JJ.

[bigegypt0417]

Well, if that's the case what's the point in our sending both of them to Boston. This writer clearly leans Celtics, so he thinks they would help Boston. While I agree that Fultz is the best guard and best overall prospect in this draft, I see him as a subpar 1.1, not as valuable as Simmons last year or most guys who go 1.1. I think all of the expectation that Boston might trade down is due a realization that Boston doesn't see him as a worthy 1.1.

Or they're trading down because they fultz plays a position they aren't looking to draft. A trade down doesn't have to mean you don't like what's available.

In my mind I have no qualms with the players we are moving...my issue is the pick.

Sixers can't miss on another premium as they are running out of opportunities for them.

[Dirk41]

True. But his defensive versatility is all unique, I think he may be worth the 3rd even with the broken shot.