Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

Matt_Winkelman 2026-01-07 19:36:36 UTC #1064

Ignoring the timing part of this (do Crawford and Painter graduate before DSL or FCL season starts), Renteria has no chance of cracking the Top 5 right now, but I think to the point you raise, Dante Nori is pretty much the consensus #6 prospect in the system after a gap after the top 5 (which is probably consensus Miller-Painter-Crawford/Escobar/Wood), and Nori vs Renteria is a real discussion and one I probably lean Renteria on, and if I didn't I would definitely have him over Rincones, Fisher, Obermueller, Chace, McFarlane, etc.

On the FCL vs DSL thing, pretty much everyone but the Padres (who do some age to level shenanigans stuff to overhype prospect value) starts their guys in the DSL, and then moves them stateside if they excel or just skips them to full season in year 2 after a full DSL season. I think regardless he probably does DSL Spring Training.

andyb 2026-01-07 19:58:19 UTC #1065

It is a question of ceiling vs risk with Renteria and as a 17-year-old the risk is extreme. In terms of ceiling though he probably ranks with Miller and Painter and above Crawford. With Nori we probably are hoping for a 750 OPS CF with above average defense. With Renteria we might be hoping for a 900 OPS guy with equivalent defense (though the possibility of him growing out of CF into RF is there).

It is just an interesting question that does not have to be answered now. Internationally I am all about trying to get as many high ceiling prospects as our budget allows and Renteria appears to be higher ceiling than our recent big budget signings like Caba.

RolenRules 2026-01-07 20:00:26 UTC #1066

I am hardly the expert, but to me it seems good that Nori and Rincones are ranked #6 and #7. Hopefully they can help the Phillies' outfield in '27 or "28.

andyb 2026-01-09 18:10:17 UTC #1067

Part 2 of Matt's list:

Interesting that Matt has both our young HS shortstops on his list (Ferrara, Dawson) on his list though they failed to make the BA top 30. Obviously there is little data on them so maybe that is why BA passed, but the bonus and some pre-draft rankings make me think they really should be in the top 30 mix.

andyb 2026-01-13 17:45:31 UTC #1068

Part 3. Depth really seems a concern for me overall. This is a bunch of players who probably rank in the 20s in many organizations. Wen-Hui Pan moves from 22 last year to 19 this year by.....not pitching.

andyb 2026-01-15 18:11:31 UTC #1069

Best tools from MLB:

https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/phillies-prospects-with-best-tools-entering-2026?t=phillies-pipeline-coverage

andyb 2026-01-16 17:58:30 UTC #1070

Part 4 from Matt. Reading more about Rincones it seems a missed opportunity that he was largely platooning last year (and some in previous years). He can't hit left-handed pitching so why the heck is he not starting every game against left-handed pitching? Even the long side of the platoon needs to remain in the game before the 8th inning with a 4-man bench. He just needs to play every day to get that OPS against LHP up to something like 600.

andyb 2026-01-20 14:38:17 UTC #1071

And the rest of the list:

zambonir 2026-01-20 14:52:37 UTC #1072

Quite a reality. Stott joined just in time for '22. Sanchez counts too I guess?

It has been exceedingly rare for the Phillies to actually graduate top prospects to the majors, and they have introduced essentially no regulars to the hitting or starting pitching staff since the start of this playoff run.

andyb 2026-01-20 15:05:05 UTC #1073

We have actually had a pretty good run of number one picks after Stott. Everyone up to Nori has made progress but since they were HS picks they took more time (and Abel did graduate technically).

The weakness is really in our picks right after the first round (2-5) where we are not hitting on anyone. Plus internationally we either miss or trade them.

fish 2026-01-21 01:07:29 UTC #1074

It’s as though their system knows how to identify the obvious talent, but not how to identify/develop much of anything else. They talked a good talk about coordinating scouting play dev, but they aren’t doing much better at it after the first round. At least last year they went back to what appeared to be a strength in developing high end arms.

zambonir 2026-01-21 17:22:54 UTC #1075

What in the name of Michael Schwimer is this?

fish 2026-01-21 18:59:13 UTC #1076

Would it surprise you to learn they had signed up Emmanuel Clase to be a part of this for name recognition…after the 2024 season? And even better, if the contracts Finlete sign tank, they are entitled to trim the gains off their winners to cover their loss from the shareholders portion. What an awesome way to screw both low income players and fans.

allentown 2026-01-21 19:11:34 UTC #1077

Depending on the terms, this doesn't screw anyone, especially fans. This provides protection to younger players against their careerz failing owing either to injury or to poor performance at higher levels. It also gives prospects, who may not have received a big signing bonus, to survive their low-pay journey through the minors with a decent life-style and ability to devote full time to improving their baseball career.

This is not all that different from many financial instruments used by members of the general public: term life insurance, home insurance, farmers selling commodities before harvest, reverse mortgages, annuities.

andyb 2026-01-21 19:12:21 UTC #1078

Behind the paywall but BA top 100 came out today.

fish 2026-01-21 20:00:04 UTC #1079

I mean “fans” in the sense of people willing to put money out for those dreaming of gambling gains. I understand the world where guys who made a $10k bonus are going to struggle to stay in it, but it’s also like a payday lending service, except this goes a step further in further removing risk on the house and putting it more on an aspirational fan who may not entirely know the rules of the game they are gambling in. Plus, anything that gives fans a vested financial interest in a players performance seems bound for a crime of some kind some day.

zambonir 2026-01-21 20:43:05 UTC #1080

I just hadn't heard of it before, and certainly wasn't going to encourage my FB algorithm by clicking on it.

Schwimer is currently being sued by at least two different players for illegal lending, IIRC it may turn on jurisdiction. Definitely more like payday lending than life insurance (not that life insurance and reverse mortgages can't be predatory too).

I can see where, if the investment terms are low (like, just dollars) it would be appealing to fans as a crowdfund investment type thing (which is also something a lot of people don't understand they can lose money on, just like they don't understand crowdfunding in general isn't buying a finished product).

dcsman 2026-01-22 01:57:02 UTC #1081

Any Phils on the list?

xogfog 2026-01-22 02:11:32 UTC #1082

Miller 14
Painter 34
Crawford 75

andyb 2026-01-22 18:23:19 UTC #1083

Spring breakout game March 19th at Minnesota (away game). Minnesota has one of the best systems these days. A chance to see Tait and Mendez again!

https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/2026-spring-breakout-schedule-and-preview?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Edit - stopped reading too soon. It is double breakout year with a second game at home on Saturday the 21st against the Blue Jays. Must be an odd number of teams in Florida and Arizona these days.