Post Arietta, what are our expectations?

[phillychuck]

The effectiveness of the lineup hinges on Franco and the catching trio. They have no reasonable, obvious alternative if Franco stinks like feet again (maybe Cesar and Kingery in some combination at 3B and 2B, but that mixes things up at 2 positions). And the catching could be a black hole offensively and below average defensively.

I'm pretty confident in the OF, and we have alternatives there. Crawford should at least OBP well, and Santana is a solid, reliable veteran. The staff is actually pretty encouraging, if just two of the young guys can put it together (and we can figure out which two to put on the 25). The pen is very deep. Yep, comes down to Franco and C's.

I'm thinking we are at least in the WC race in August, and we'll see from there. if we're close, maybe Klentak makes a good deadline deal to shore up weaknesses.

I guess I think we'll get about 84 wins and just miss WC2. But we could be better. Things have to go right, especially at 3B, C, and SP's #3, #4, and #5.

[Austinfan]

Arrieta doesn't move the needle much, just pushes Eickhoff and Lively to the end of the rotation IF Velasquez and Pivetta put it together, over say Thompson or Eflin. Maybe 2 more wins.

The key is still whether 2 or 3 of the young pitchers step up and are better than #5 types.

The team will hit, it will field (though catcher may be shaky), and there's a solid and deep bullpen.
So it comes down to the 100 games pitchers not named Nola and Arrieta will start.

[allentown]

I think Arrieta likely adds 4 wins, in part because at present we are looking at negative WAR for one or two of the guys in the rotation prior to this trade. Assuming a couple young pitchers can take a step forward (Eflin is at the head of my list), I think the team can win 85 games.

[teabag259]

I think it should push us to at least be in contention for the wildcard entering September.

[zambonir]

The Vegas over/under earlier today was still just 75.5. I would have taken the over on that w/o Arrieta. Does he take them from 78 or 79 to 83? I don't know. But sure, if he's just two WAR and the #5 collectively would have been -1 that's some real value.

But 3B and C aren't the only issues in my mind. Altherr's health, the league figuring out Williams (or rather him not adjusting), Hoskins' defense, Crawford's hitting. Also, the bullpen, because it's a bullpen.

For sure though, they are set up to be a fun young surprise team if everything goes right. And 3B and C aren't that hard to fix (clearly they are ready to go with Hernandez/Kingery/Crawford as a multi-position tandem if need be. And they can always add a veteran catcher).

[andyb]

I think it puts their median expected wins somewhere in the 78-80 range. Better than that has always depended on the young players coming through and being really good. Crawford and one of the two hard throwers (VV, Pivetta) are my best bets for someone that could move the needle a bit. Maybe also Kingery though I think I expect him to struggle in his first experience some.

At the very least this gives them a chance to compete for the wild card. We also have a potential trade of Hernandez if Franco plays adequately, something that could either shuffle the decks to give them something in a position of need or that might replace the #2 and #3 draft picks we don't have.

So over-under around 79-80 wins. 30% chance of 85 wins. 10% chance of 88-90. Which of course means 30% chance of 74 wins and 10% chance of below 70. At least there is a nonzero chance of some good things for the first time in a while.

[bigegypt0417]

Arrieta would have been the Phillies #2 last year and would have led the team in pretty much every category. IF he comes close to those number the top of your rotation is fine and you need the rest of the rotation to stay above water. I hope Eickhoff figures it out and solidifies the top 3. After that you just need to cobble the other starters together.

I think the signing raises my expactations going forward in terms of being players in the free agent market.

[zambonir]

One never knows who the surprise success or surprise failure will be in baseball, and of course the Phillies could be the former. Given the Mets' age and bad luck one hopes they will easily take second in the division.

Can they be in the mix with Chicago/Milwaukee/St. Louis and LA/Colorado/Arizona? Will all of those teams be wild card contenders again? Are the Giants? Only seven teams (the Nats being the other) were over .500 last year.

I would love to think the Nats could disappoint and be catchable but I also think this might be the first year in a while that they are actually a well-managed ball club, and from the same family tree that Kapler is too.

[Jazzhead]

The narrow expectation is to beat the Mets; if that's enough to get us into the wild card conversation, then solid.

I think Franco is going to have a good year. I agree he is key to how far we go, along of course with the starters. As for the three starters behind Arrieta-Nola, I'd go with the hot hand, even if that's Lively-Valasquez-Eshelman. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think almost all of them can be optioned, and if one slips, send him up and bring up another.

[andyb]

Baseball Prospectus has us updated to an 81-81 projection:

BP Depth Charts

[VoteForKalas]

I think the Phils are at best a .500 (81 wins) team as constituted and even that would take big steps forward for several pitchers and hitters.

WC normally takes at least 86 wins which is a bridge too far for this roster.

Next off-season, I expect them to go harder in FA and trades to upgrade around the rising talent.