Possible Spring Training Delay

[zambonir]

I posted about this in the now-locked non-Phillies thread and Andy posted about in my poll, so figured it is worth its own topic (unless you just want to make this the 2021 ST discussion thread).

POLL: Will the Phillies do something big in January?

I also would not be shocked to see Spring Training delayed 2 weeks. It is 2 weeks too long anyway and they could always use the mandatory reporting date rather than the suggested one. Lots of February signings this year unfortunately.

Right now the voluntary reporting dates are 2/17 and 2/22 with the mandatory date 2/27. A 2/27 date buys them an extra 10 days of COVID vaccines in FL and AZ. Rosenthal is pushing for a 1-month delay. Just not sure there is support for that among the players.

Rosenthal: Starting spring training in three weeks makes little sense

Well, the players want their 162-game paycheck, but I still think they are going to lose that battle. But that's how they'll get the DH and greater playoff $, and perhaps expanded rosters.

Seems to me spring training shouldn't be played with fans - the mayors' interest suggests that they don't want to lose that, because otherwise I wouldn't say it presents a public safety risk - even if it is delayed I would think dozens of players per team will already be there if allowed (and have already made their living arrangements). MLB's role in helping AZ and Florida tourism/restaurants has to be pretty low on their list, but since they have their own reasons for wanting to shorten the MLB season (and, perhaps to use spring training fans as a trial run in the big league parks)

[andyb]

I have never understood why people think the DH is important to this negotiation. While the DH might help a handful of older offensive players continue their career, there is no reason to suggest having it will cost MLB any more money. The roster limit will remain at 26. The competitive balance threshold relates to the whole roster.

This might shift a few dollars from the pitching side to the hitting side, but it is much more a zero sum game than anything the players would think is a significant gift to them in collective bargaining. Unlike postseason money which WAS a huge gift to the owners last year. It was a justified gift to the owners because of the pandemic, but that is besides the point.

[zambonir]

Well, it may not be as important to the MLBPA as people perceive it to be, but they're still using it as part of the negotiation And I bet if you polled the membership (of non-pitchers that is) the players probably share the perception that it creates a small # of better-paying jobs for them. Which it does, just not, I think, jobs for "DH type" players per se, and many of them will just go to pre-arbitration players too. There was a time when it did more noticeably keep aging LFs and 1Bs employed though.

It won't have a huge impact on the Phillies either way, especially since they're pretty clearly signing a SS and can't trade Segura. With or without a DH they still need a LH power bat more than another defensive OF or utility IF, especially if the SS isn't Didi. But it's also not un-useful to know that JT will be able to make starts there, both this year and going forward.

MLS just announced 2/22 pre-season and April 3 season openers. Perhaps MLB is going to end up in the same place MLS did, which was, they made noise about waiting until you could have fans at increased capacity, resulting in a shortened schedule and May start, but I think they realized the wait was simply going to be too long. But that might just increase the owners' resolve to cancel games.

[andyb]

Since they started last season with something like a 2-week Summer Camp, there is no reason they could not cut Spring Training from 7 weeks to 4-5 without damaging things too much. They can always allow a couple of extra pitchers the first 2 weeks anyway.

I just expect the vaccine to be available to MLB by April. It won't solve all the problems and COVID protocols will still be needed, but it will be there. The last week or two have seen declining cases nationally also. Not sure if it is the vaccine or just getting beyond the holiday travel, but it looks real.

[zambonir]

I just don't think any of this has anything to do with the vaccine or safety, except inasmuch as it hurts MLB's ability to claim emergency powers, which does reduce their leverage, especially with the grievance from last year still unfiled. But it is a given that MLB is not going to have full attendance this season, whether it is legal or not, and their position is that costs them tons of money, however dubious their actually $ figure claims may be. So they either need the players to agree to a salary rollback over a full season or they need to agree on a reduced schedule/proration.

It will be interesting to see what really happens. In theory the players will just happily show up for work on time and ready to play 162, with no DH and no expanded playoffs. In that sense the Arizona mayors are helping out the owners, because now they can claim there is still a safety issue.

Things do look better right now, but the combination of the new strain relaxing protocols might still mean we haven't seen our last bump, especially with many states still dragging on vaccination. Sadly we may yet see a wave of screw-ups where the second shot isn't given in time too.

[zambonir]

Speak of the devil

Union rejects MLB bid for DH in NL, more playoffs

[andyb]

I imagine there was other stuff in that MLB proposal too like pitch clocks that the players do not like.

I could see the players going for a slightly expanded playoffs (12 instead of 16 teams), but the larger the expansion the more the regular season becomes meaningless, and the more incentive there is for MLB to try to declare an emergency and shorten the season.

[zambonir]

The 16 teams is win-win for the owners really. They get the extra TV money, and, teams like the Phillies and Reds (and all the NL Central teams, at least so far) won't feel as much payroll pressure. If there's only 12 teams (let alone 10) I'd say Dombrowski has to be more aggressive about a starting pitcher (assuming he gets JT, for starters). And an offense with Simmons instead of Didi means they definitely would need a LH bat to replace Bruce as well.

tbh if they don't expand the playoffs do you even sign JT? I realize that's a white flag on multiple seasons and therefore would be unacceptable to many (and perfectly acceptable to others) but we have almost no shot at a single wild card (conceding the first one to either San Diego or LA)