Politics/Publics Affairs (The road goes ever on...) [OT]

[Jazzhead]

I like the approach taken in Ohio, where at issue was the amendment of the State constitution to specifically address the issue of abortion. This is exactly the process envisioned by the Supreme Court - allow folks that want abortion addressed by courts rather than legislatures to do so by amending state constitutions to establish - or not establish - the right. Ironically, the voters' decision in Ohio may make things easier for the GOP down the road, by minimizing abortion as a political issue.

Congrats to the Dems on a good night.

[Austinfan]

Not with Mike Johnson as Speaker, he wants a national ban.
Look for him to get hammered as well as Trump starting next spring.
Democrats will outspend the Republicans by huge margins as Trump drains the money well financing his legal struggles.

I expect a lot of corporate money to go to the Democrats b/c as much as they hate taxes (rollback of the Trump cuts), they hate chaos more, and Republican populism is a bigger threat than Democratic liberals.

[julio]

Ironically, the voters' decision in Ohio may make things easier for the GOP down the road, by minimizing abortion as a political issue.

Not with Mike Johnson as Speaker, he wants a national ban.

This. The decision in Ohio will minimize the issue in Ohio politics, as those pertain to local and state governance. But given the national Republican leadership is talking up a national ban, I would expect that abortion will remain a top-level issue in all Congressional and Presidential elections - in Ohio and everywhere else. A good issue for Sherrod Brown. A good issue for Bob Casey. Women are angry.

[Philsmania]

A lot of good an interesting posts over the last couple of days. Catching up a bit here.

Those polls do look bad but it is not uncommon for situations to look grim for the sitting President a year away from reelection before voters really sit down and think about it. Clinton and Obama both looked liked certain losers three years in and solidly trailed Dole and Romney respectively a year out. Americans have become a sour, miserable lot. Unless everything in the country is peachy perfect, they hate on the President, whoever he is. And, they usually punish the President's party but, right now, they like the Republicans even less.

Having said that, in my heart of hearts, coming out of 2020, I was thinking Biden would serve just one term to restore normalcy, professionalism and dignity to the White House and the country before passing the torch to a new generation of Democrats in 2024. The fly in the ointment to all of that is Trump's refusal to go away (or get put away in prison). Only Biden can beat Trump but Biden can probably only beat Trump. In my heart of hearts, I would love to see a Gretchen Whitmer vs. [insert Republican not named Trump] race but thanks to Trump, we can't have that.

In some ways, the end of Roe v. Wade was the best thing to happen to the abortion rights movement. It has led to things like substantive laws and state constituational amendmends protecting the right to it which are for more enduring than the house of cards which is judicial fiat. At the same time, however, Ohio Republicans are now off the hook on the issue and that is probably good for them,

Good results for Democrats in many places last night. Again, I think a lot of people don't like MAGAism, as much as MAGAites convince (or delude) themselves that they are the "Silent Majority"--a term which, let's face it, was probably dog whistle for Christian conservative white people all along. They are actually neither silent nor a majority.

[Jazzhead]

n some ways, the end of Roe v. Wade was the best thing to happen to the abortion rights movement. It has led to things like substantive laws and state constituational amendmends protecting the right to it which are for more enduring than the house of cards which is judicial fiat. At the same time, however, Ohio Republicans are now off the hook on the issue and that is probably good for them,

It was the best thing to happen to the abortion debate, period. Getting the issue settled at the state constitutional level will largely remove it as a divisive political issue. It is no coincidence IMO that the radicalization of both parties has its root in Roe v. Wade and the usurpation of the abortion debate by the Supreme Court. As the last couple of elections have shown, the people need to hash this out for themselves, and eventually get to where Europe is on the issue - a rough consensus that the abortion right is protected for the first months of pregnancy and restricted thereafter.

I've never understood why Republicans market their position on the abortion issue as they do. Talk of abortion "bans" won't change hearts and minds, especially with respect to an issue easily framed as the taking away of a right heretofore enjoyed. If I were engaged by the GOP to market a "national abortion ban", I'd flip the issue completely around. What I'd advocate is a constitutional amendment to preserve and codify the abortion right, for a reasonable of time so women can meaningfully exercise their right to choose. After that period of time (e.g., 15 - 20 weeks, let's say, similar to most nations in Europe), the states are allowed, but not required, to regulate and restrict the practice.

Stated as a means of preserving what has come to be seen as a right, while reasonably providing for the protection of an unborn baby as he or she approaches viability, could I think command an electoral majority.

[Austinfan]

Can't be done. For Evangelicals, it's a position that can't be compromised, any comprise is merely a salami tactic designed to set a status quo that can be gradually eroded.

Problem is women know this, and don't trust Republicans at all on this issue.

And the other cultural war issues fire up the base but alienate the independents, gay marriage for instance, Johnson can rail about sodomy (he's being very quiet, but his past statements will be repeated in attack ads ad nauseam, as they should be b/c they're his real positions), but the vast majority of Americans who aren't on the Christian Right are tolerant and find homophobia distasteful.

[Philsmania]

Can't be done. For Evangelicals, it's a position that can't be compromised, any comprise is merely a salami tactic designed to set a status quo that can be gradually eroded.

Problem is women know this, and don't trust Republicans at all on this issue.

And the other cultural war issues fire up the base but alienate the independents, gay marriage for instance, Johnson can rail about sodomy (he's being very quiet, but his past statements will be repeated in attack ads ad nauseam, as they should be b/c they're his real positions), but the vast majority of Americans who aren't on the Christian Right are tolerant and find homophobia distasteful.

The culture war, which is essential if not central to the Evangelical-conservative Catholic-Mormon-alliance, does turn off everyone else espcially the more recent generations of voters. It may well turn out to be true that Millennials (and Z's) may become more fiscally conservative, more hawkish on foreign policy, more tough-on-crime and there may come a point where they draw a line on their concern for racial justice when the anger of marginalized communities of color turns to rioting. But, unlike their Boomer (and early Xer) parents, I doubt they have any desire whatsoever to live in a restored 1950's America that many Boomers now rhapsodize about. And, only climate change, I doubt they will age into climate deniers saying "drill baby, drill" or "dig baby, dig".

One of the biggest reasons that Republicans harp so much on transgender people now is that it is one of the few culture war wedge issue arrows left in their quiver. The T's haven't caught up with the rest of the LGBQ's on the society's acceptance scale. The quesiness (if not revulsion) that LGBQ lifestyle used to trigger in ordinary straight people still exists with regard to T people. Eventually, the T's will catch up to the others though. Gay marriage once was a wedge issue that could divide center from left (see 2004). It isn't anymore.

Getting back to abortion, one thing that I always found ironic was that the Church beat up on abortion-rights-supporting Catholic politicians here in the US where abortion was legalized by judicial fiat far more than it did politicians in Europe where abortion was legalized through the legislative process.

[Austinfan]

The problem with the transgender issue is that it's a small minority that's been blown out of proportion by both sides, a medical issue where there is scant evidence either way has become a political issue. And the Left is just as much to blame, for example, the idea that "women" born men should be allowed to compete in women's sports is ridiculous, go back to East German women athletes and their hormone doping, natural testosterone provides a similar and unfair advantage. Sometimes common sense should prevail, not abstract principles.

The Democrats have to get away from their "holier than thou" attitudes (leave that to Evangelicals) and focus on "live and let live," that is, instead of forcing diversity and equality down people's throats, focus on legal protections that allow people protection from discrimination and persecution for being different.

[Jazzhead]

The culture war is critical to both parties' alliances. There's a reason that MSNBC reports on the culture war as much as it does, even though I suspect few evangelicals watch it. It's catnip to its audience.

Indeed, it boggles the mind how MSNBC can night after night demonize both Trump and those who voted for him, with the result that both support for Trump AND MSNBC's ratings are boosted. That's the dynamic at play here - both sides are defined and enabled by their enemies.

[Benchjockey]

A good Trump is a dead Trump. Period.

I am new around here but usually have no interest in the politics thread. I like coming to this site for stimulating Phillies discussion and the opportunity to actually escape from the ever-present maelstrom of current events & politics, not swirl around in it. However, I did peek in here... This conversation has taken a fascinating turn and I can not resist asking a couple questions for julio.

First, is Donald Trump the only person you want dead or do you have a long list of other malicious people who need to die for the world's sake -- if so, who are some of the others? Second, if you personally had the power to make Trump drop dead with a Jeannie-like head bob, would you use it or would you simply let events take their course and keep hoping for his death otherwise? Thanks!

[julio]

But, unlike their Boomer (and early Xer) parents, I doubt they have any desire whatsoever to live in a restored 1950's America that many Boomers now rhapsodize about.

Speaking as a Boomer, all I can say to this is, "Gaaaahhhh!"

[Austinfan]

Yeah, what Boomer looks back at the 1950s, the first half of the boomer generation were small children, the second half sperm and eggs.

Older boomers may be nostalgic for the 1960s, younger boomers (1953 onward) had a tougher time than Millennials, etc.
Vietnam war, then oil crisis of 1973 and recession, 1979 Iranian revolution and recession, 1981-2 Volcker recession.
Women went from 40% to 60% labor market participation at the same time the peak of the post-war Baby boom hit the job market - so wages were suppressed for a decade and unemployment was much higher than the last two decades.

However, we are nostalgic for sex, drugs and rock n' roll before AIDS, might have been poor, but we partied down!

[schillingfan]

I am an anti-nostalgia boomer. I was privileged (except being female) as a white person growing up in a small town. I do believe that the ark of justice moves forward.

[Jazzhead]

My nostalgia was for a time I never experienced - 52nd Street in the forties, Central Avenue in LA in the fifties, Birdland, the Royal Roost, Mintons Playhouse, the Five Spot and all the other spots where jazz flourished during its long ago golden age. The closest I ever got was the amazing Ortlieb's Jazzhaus, where black, white, young, old, rich and poor all gathered to dig what WRTI used to call the Freedom sound.

[bkox]

Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia says he won’t seek reelection in...

[bkox]

I like the approach taken in Ohio, where at issue was the amendment of the State constitution to specifically address the issue of abortion.

Except the GOP wont accept the will of the voters

"This isn't the end," Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman said in a statement, per Ohio Statehouse Bureau Chief Karen Kasler. "It is really just the beginning of a revolving door of ballot campaigns to repeal or replace Issue 1." Huffman had previously predicted that another abortion-related ballot issue would likely follow if Issue 1 passed, Kasler noted.

"This isn't the end": Top Ohio Republican vows effort to undo abortion amendment...

[bkox]

LOL

Far-right hosts are blaming the GOP's big election losses on Taylor Swift

[Jazzhead]

Ohio Republicans appear to be idiots. They should be grateful, politically, that the people have spoken and have removed the issue of abortion prior to viability from the menu of things subject to state compulsion. There are a host of ways to discourage abortion without involving the heavy hand of the state, including the time-honored art of persuasion.

[allentown]

one thing that I always found ironic was that the Church beat up on abortion-rights-supporting Catholic politicians here in the US where abortion was legalized by judicial fiat far more than it did politicians in Europe where abortion was legalized through the legislative process.

The Catholic hierarchy in the United States is vastly more conservative than their European counterparts. The American bishops are virtually at war with the current Pope. Of course the preponderance of Catholics are now in the global south and are even more conservative than the American bishops, with the exception of those leaders still believing in social justice Catholicism.

[allentown]

Unfortunately, MAGA is powered largely by the Boomer and older Americans, as well as being the base of the extreme White religious conservatives.