Phils Trade for Clay Buchholz

[Carver]

They might have to operate in order to get that tongue out of his cheek...

[bkeich]

That Jerry Crasnik is insane?

Yea, Philadelphia Sports fans certainly have a laid back reputation. (It was hard to even write that without laughing)

We love, respect and honor effort. If a player is perceived of laying back, even once, look out (recently see Ertz)

[zambonir]

This is why we have emoticons I guess. Crasnick lives in the Philly area.

Klentak loves to have depth and flexibility, but this is not a bad problem to have. Maybe he considers a trade for VV. Maybe he's worried about Nola or Eflin. But pushing Thompson back (only 21 starts at AAA, that's not so many) or trying Eflin in the pen (or back at AAA, he's still young) is not the end of the world. Asher may be a reliever or not have a future here. Morgan obviously doesn't. And it won't be long before there's an injury, or three months until a trade (I believe JH can't be traded until June 15).

And yeah, it's not out of the question that he is aggressive about acquiring that last bat, rather than just getting a 4th OF, and everything breaks exactly right, and on July 31 he's not flipping any of these guys, but also hasn't done anything to hurt the future.

[Les229]

I was looking forward to seeing what Asher could do. He was pitching well at his end of the season callup. I also wanted to see how Eflin would do. If these two are healthy at the beginning of the year and he starts a game, he is already in the way. You can't find out how they will do, unless you let them pitch. To me, this is a move of a man that can't move forward.

[LoneStarPhan]

I anticipated that they might want to add another veteran arm to the rotation just as they did last season in Hellickson and Morton. It is unlikely that Nola and VV will make 30 or more starts and probably best that they don't in 2017. Someone will spend some time on the DL. Nola, VV, Thompson, Eflin, Asher, Morgan, and probably one or two more will get starts this season. If everyone stays healthy and pitching well (in Phila or AAA), then I do think they will entertain offers for one or both of Hellickson and Buchholz near the July trade deadline.

So for now, I don't have any problem with this trade. I am as optimistic about the starting pitching as I have been for several years. I would, however, like to see one or two lefthanders in the starting rotation eventually.

[andyb]

I actually have no problem with either Velasquez or Nola having 30 starts next year if they are pitching well and seemingly healthy. Obviously we don't want to push them that hard, but they are old enough now to start handling it. This does not mean suddenly 220 innings. But 180+ is reasonable for either. Velasquez had 24 last year plus one at Reading, I am not sure 30 innings more than the previous season is a magic rule but even that puts him in the mid 160s. More important he will be 25 and it is time for him to start pitching full seasons.

With Nola last year had an injury that was reportedly due to changing an arm slot to get more movement. Not necessarily overuse. He had 187 innings already in 2015. If healthy he should be fine for a full season.

Pitching coaches and managers (and analytics guys) are there to detect signs of overuse. But I would not go into the season thinking we necessarily have to limit either one. Now if we are out of it in September we can shut anybody down. Until then though I am not sure what the note of caution is. With Nola we should know in Spring Training whether he is ready. Hopefully he is and can get back to where he was at the end of 2015 and early 2016. VV also needs to take the next step. Better control/out pitches should let him throw fewer pitches per inning. Getting through 6 without pitch count worries should lead to him being able to handle closer to 200 innings. He is the right age to start seeing what he has got.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I was looking forward to seeing what Asher could do. He was pitching well at his end of the season callup. I also wanted to see how Eflin would do. If these two are healthy at the beginning of the year and he starts a game, he is already in the way. You can't find out how they will do, unless you let them pitch. To me, this is a move of a man that can't move forward.

I agree, but I still think it's a good move. I'd treat Buchholz like a "hot potato", hoping he gets off to a great start so we can say, "see, we fixed him", then try to get a much better return that "Josh Tobias."

[LoneStarPhan]

I also would love to see Nola and VV get 30 starts, but I think it is unlikely that they will be able to reach that number. It is highly unlikely that all five of the starting rotation will be able to make it to 30 starts. Plus, if everyone stays healthy both in Philadelphia and at AAA, then I think it becomes much more likely that they try to move Hellickson and/or Buchholz in late July, opening up more spots for starts with the Phillies. If everything goes well, the Phillies end up with too many starting pitchers but that is far better than not having enough.

[allentown]

Not me. This is a fairly meaningless season for the Phillies as far as MLB W-L goes and I don't want to risk our young pitching arms. Vasquez has never pitched more than 136 IP in his career -- adding 30 innings brings him to 166. Nola has pitched over 180 IP, but ended last year with a sore elbow. They should back off on his work load a bit. To make 30 starts and average 6 innings per start is 180 IP. That's too much for either of them. There really is no reason to push them hard this season.

[zambonir]

That seems to be the real intent of the trade. Let him have some innings until he either breaks or is tradeable, while protecting the young staff. He's Charlie Morton or John Lannan or Aaron Harang, just a bit more of a name (and more money).

[Philsmania]

I was looking forward to seeing what Asher could do. He was pitching well at his end of the season callup. I also wanted to see how Eflin would do. If these two are healthy at the beginning of the year and he starts a game, he is already in the way. You can't find out how they will do, unless you let them pitch. To me, this is a move of a man that can't move forward.

I agree, but I still think it's a good move. I'd treat Buchholz like a "hot potato", hoping he gets off to a great start so we can say, "see, we fixed him", then try to get a much better return that "Josh Tobias."

Hot potato is a little bit of a stretch. Let's see what happens during deadline season. I doubt anyone makes a move until then. I remember a couple of years ago, people were saying Amaro should have traded Harang in May when he was still pitching well. Sounds good but, realistically, what GM would have traded for Harang at that point? When Harang reverted to his poor norm, that GM would have looked like a knucklehead.

[allentown]

I don't think it's a question of a GM looking like a knucklehead, because a guy he trades for reverts to bad form. A traded for player can go south at any time. There are a few reasons why trades occur at the deadline rather than May, in most instances. A big reason is that there is less salary owed at that time, so the acquiring GM is on the hook for less or, alternatively, the sending GM doesn't have to send as many $ for the guy to play for another team. Second, in May teams aren't as sure they are going to be strong contenders. Also, less time for holes to develop and become blazingly obvious. Also, the GM who signed the guy and now must trade him wants to get some use out of the guy, who he acquired at least as much to fill one of his own holes as he did to have flipping ammunition -- he doesn't want to have an awful year, he has tickets to sell, he may think he has an outside chance to contend, he doesn't want the fans to accuse him of waving the white flag prematurely if his team is perhaps 20-25, or he is waiting for a replacement to mature down on the farm.

[zambonir]

GMs can be swayed by perception/brand names sometime too. If he is pitching well, then because he makes $13 million and used to be Clay Buchholz who pitched for the Red Sox in the postseason, he may actually be a hotter commodity than Hellickson was last year, even though Hellickson was younger and cheaper. And because the Phillies would have to send more money the opposing GM would have to give something back. Hellickson was inexpensive enough that some GMs may have simply wanted to acquire him cheaply, and pay the freight,rather than give up a better package and not pay it.

[Figaro]

Living in New England I have had the opportunity (I was going to say misfortune, but Buchholz did have some great stretches in his career) to watch this guy many times. Every once in awhile during the last 3 seasons, he would have an occasional outstanding game or excellent 4-5 innings and make you wonder why they were so rare. Everybody was hoping that when Farrell was hired as manager that he would help Buchholz return to how he pitched when Farrell was pitching coach. What a pipe dream that was.

He really can make you sick of watching him. He over-thinks every freaking pitch, shakes off the catcher, ignores how Farrell wants him to pitch, and takes forever between pitches. Plus he looks like he is sulking half the time. Oh and I almost forgot ... he gets injured often and takes forever to heal. He will never pitch at anything other than when he feels 100%.

If the Phils are willing to blow $13M on this guy, that is really frightening.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Living in New England I have had the opportunity (I was going to say misfortune, but Buchholz did have some great stretches in his career) to watch this guy many times. Every once in awhile during the last 3 seasons, he would have an occasional outstanding game or excellent 4-5 innings and make you wonder why they were so rare. Everybody was hoping that when Farrell was hired as manager that he would help Buchholz return to how he pitched when Farrell was pitching coach. What a pipe dream that was.

He really can make you sick of watching him. He over-thinks every freaking pitch, shakes off the catcher, ignores how Farrell wants him to pitch, and takes forever between pitches. Plus he looks like he is sulking half the time. Oh and I almost forgot ... he gets injured often and takes forever to heal. He will never pitch at anything other than when he feels 100%.

If the Phils are willing to blow $13M on this guy, that is really frightening.

Also from New England here.............everything you say is true when things are going bad. I would want no part of this guy on a long term, or even a 2 year contract. He is a "China Doll" both mentally and physically, but there is also the reason the Red Sox kept picking up his options, he can be as good as anyone. I have no doubt that a lot of teams were looking at him as a "change of scenery guy", but the Phillies were the first to say, "we'll take his whole contract." We've made little to no commitment towards Buchholz. 13M and trading Josh Tobias is nothing. If one of those teams that were interested in him before the trade came knocking and we could get something we needed more for him, I'd do it in a heartbeat, but wouldn't be at all surprised if Buchholz went to a team with a "pitchers park" and had a very good season.

[Figaro]

If one of those teams that were interested in him before the trade came knocking and we could get something we needed more for him, I'd do it in a heartbeat, but wouldn't be at all surprised if Buchholz went to a team with a "pitchers park" and had a very good season.

I wish I shared your luke warm optimism. I have no faith that even if he has a good April and May that he won't be the stiff that he really is. If he is in Philly as trade bait, by the time June/July rolls around, he'll either be hurt or have reverted to his last 3 years mean and not have much value.

[Austinfan]

It's only money. We gambled on Morton and lost, got good value out of Hellickson last year, got a good deal for Hernandez two years ago.
At worst they eat $13M in a year where they are spending $100M less than the salary cap.
At best they either get 30 starts, protecting the young arms, or flip him in July for a real prospect.
And he makes it easier to trade Hellickson if someone makes a good offer in April (after a contender's SP goes down with an arm injury).

All the decisions this year are about adding assets that can help the team win now or garner value in July trades or both.
No financial overhag in the future, no commitment that blocks a young player who shows they're ready.

[ZardozMD]

The Good Phight very positive on the Bucholz signing. Mirroring a lot of what's been said on this board.