Phils Trade for Clay Buchholz

andyb 2016-12-20 16:38:07 UTC #21

Yup. K rate was worse out of the bullpen so his better stats there really look like BABIP luck.

Velocity does not looked like it was much better out of the bullpen though on the plus side he has been averaging 92 consistently since 2011 with no drop year to year.

phillychuck 2016-12-20 16:39:26 UTC #22

Might make it to AAA....

phillychuck 2016-12-20 16:40:39 UTC #23

On the upside re: Buchholz his second half stats last year were much better, and he was good in September.

I hope this is because one of our scouts saw him and knows his stuff, and decided he had overcome whatever was hurting him in the first half.

andyb 2016-12-20 16:41:16 UTC #24

I hate to even mention this, but this is the sort of move a GM would make if they are contemplating a much bigger trade of a starting pitcher. And the obvious candidate (with some rumors earlier in the offseason) would be Vincent Velasquez.

Just musing here - decidedly not endorsing the idea.

julio 2016-12-20 16:41:24 UTC #25

This was my reaction, too, Squire.

Withholding judgment until I see what the Opening Day roster looks like...

California_Dreamin 2016-12-20 16:44:13 UTC #26

andyb..I just mentioned this but posts are going so fast and furious that no one probably noticed. This looks to me to be a precursor to another move....and VV is the obvious choice.

I also mentioned that this could mean the Phils don't really believe Nola is healthy.

julio 2016-12-20 16:46:22 UTC #27

Yeah...ain't it wonderful?!

andyb 2016-12-20 16:48:37 UTC #28

Missed that but obviously agree. It would make more sense to spend the money on a LH outfielder (Martinez, Bruce, Saunders) than another pitcher since one would think that we really need to see what guys like Eflin and Thompson can do.

The dark part of my mind agrees with you and wonders how healthy they think Nola is. Zero evidence of course. A VV trade really makes the most sense given how it was telegraphed with Texas rumors a month ago. We can get a whole lot for VV. He is probably worth more than Giles was at this point. But wow. Our problem is not having many high end arms that project to be more than #3 starters and trading VV only makes that problem worse.

Carver 2016-12-20 16:53:22 UTC #29

Not quite as much of a logjam as Gelb implies (he is a fairly useless writer anyway). Pivetta has some solid upside but not ready at all; Asher needs a pitch to get lefties out if he wants to make it in the bigs as a starter (better pen material); Lively looks far more like a AAAA guy that you always need around.

I think that a few of you are correct in deducing that VV is in play...seller's market for pitching and this gives the depth to make that move more easily. I have mixed feelings about trading Velasquez - love his upside and feisty attitude and fear his arm health. I don't want to even think about Nola and long term damage...just hope that he is healthy.

Plus, it is clear that they are using this season as another planned Hinkie Year anyway...Hellickson and Buchholz are trade bait for sure if they pitch well, as are Neshek and Benoit. They are kicking the can down the road again, and hoping that by the deadline they have cleared room for more of the youngsters to show their stuff.

julio 2016-12-20 16:54:33 UTC #30

Stark appears to see Buchholz as a prime candidate for a July trade:

Regardless, Buchholz is a short-termer. He's on a one-year contract (FA again in 2018). If he's more than just a guy who can be acquired for little (I've rooted for Tobias, but he's a marginal prospect), he's just a one-year patch - and I'm not convinced that he makes much sense as a one-year patch.

Even with a trade (unless it involves multiple pitching prospects), the Phils have the young pitchers to build a rotation:

Asher
Eflin
Eickhoff
Hellickson
Morgan
Nola
Thompson
Velasquez

...and that's without pushing Lively, or anybody else who doesn't already have major-league experience. So if this is about anything other than just "buy low, sell high," it implies multiple guys on that list not being available (injury, trade, whatever).

Austinfan 2016-12-20 16:56:29 UTC #31

The money is no issue, they have what, $60M to go before the cap?
One year deal, so no overhang.
He hasn't lost velocity, and supposedly he turned it around when he started mixing in his 4 seamer high in the K-zone because hitters were waiting on his low sinker.
Didn't use the change much and his curve fell off, so he has room to rebound, as his velocity was as good or better than his career.

Strange move but only cost money (Tobias was my #71 prospect, hitting OK but not dominating A ball and too old for Clearwater this year and doesn't really have a position - provides more PT for young LA infielders in A ball).

Could be sign and trade move for July, or insurance for a pitcher for position player trade.

andyb 2016-12-20 16:56:42 UTC #32

It is a pretty big logjam to me and has nothing to do with Asher (AAAA arm) and Pivetta (needs a full year of AAA).

Hellickson
Nola
Velasquez
Eickhoff
Eflin, Thompson, Buchholz
Others: Pivetta, Asher, Lively, Morgan

Austinfan 2016-12-20 16:59:57 UTC #33

Not to mention Viza, Appel and Eshelman in AAA ball this year.

But Eickhoff and Hellickson are the only reliable pitchers in the group, the rest have injury/durability issues (Nola, Velasquez) or are unproven (wouldn't hurt them to pitch in Lehigh for a couple months and work on stuff.

It's going to be crowded from Reading on up in the short run, but injuries, performance and trades will thin this group out by August.

julio 2016-12-20 17:36:13 UTC #34

Discussion of the Buchholz trade from the Boston Globe:

The writer's conclusion is that the deal, from Boston's perspective, was a salary dump - to get under the luxury tax threshold for 2017, and increase the Sox' flexibility to do other things:

Les229 2016-12-20 17:47:16 UTC #35

Waste of time and money. If he blocks one prospect from getting in a game the ownership needs to look for a new front office.

Carver 2016-12-20 17:48:58 UTC #36

Right on.

Frankly, I am only comfortable if we have 9 or 10 solid potentials for the 5 man rotation...no one ever makes it through the year with 5 or 6 guys making all of the starts. It is great to see the Phils having actual prospects filling up most of the LHV rotation and pushing down to Reading...much better than AAAA retread rotations.

jimbomill 2016-12-20 17:58:12 UTC #37

Good points, CD. Hope Nola is going to be OK.
If VV is being traded, would want a very nice return.

Squire 2016-12-20 18:03:28 UTC #38

I don't know. I kinda like the deal. Finished strong and this guy was once one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball at one point. Can start or be a reliever if we like a Neris offer. I just would have preferred DFA'ing Luis Garcia or Sev before Richie Shaffer.

allentown 2016-12-20 18:24:39 UTC #39

I think the Phillies are playing the numbers game in order to have a few guys eventually not be claimed and make it down to Allentown to serve as MLB reserves. They played that game with all the bullpen pick ups followed by more pick ups/releases. They have an unusual, at least for recent Phillies teams, number of not-yet-ready-for-prime-time prospects on the 40-man and need to play some games to get a decent number of AAAA+ reserves-in-waiting at Allentown.

andyb 2016-12-20 18:28:49 UTC #40

After the rule 5 draft virtually everyone has a full 40-man roster. So it is easier to slip players through now than a month ago. Figured Shaffer was seen as AAA depth anyway given he had options and does the same things as Franco and Joseph but does them less well.