Phils to sign Craig Kimbrel

[Aquapong]

Merry Christmas!!!!!

[BaseballCat]

It’s not a Phillies off-season until we sign a former closer off the discount rack although 10 million is nothing to sneeze at. We will see how this on works.

[zambonir]

Interesting to ponder whether they were still planning to replace Robertson (or Knebel if you prefer) this way all along or if it's a reaction to the Mets.

[zambonir]

Craig Kimbrel vs D-Backs 2022:

7.2 IP, 9 H, 10 ER, 11.74 ERA, 4 BB, 3 HR, 9 K, OPP; .300/.447/.700

Kimbrel vs everyone else:

52.1 IP, 42 H, 15 ER, 2.58 ERA, 24 BB, 1 HR, 63 K, OPP: .215/.303/.297

Well that sure is something. https://t.co/Bf8ts3ETZC

— The Good Phight - x ( @TheGoodPhight ) December 24, 2022

[LoneStarPhan]

Looks like this is happening. I never liked Kimbrel but part of that might be from the many times he shut down the Phillies for a Braves' win. Clearly not the dominating closer he was in Atlanta, but still a solid veteran reliever. Certainly this move makes the bull pen better.

Philadelphia Phillies Sign 8-Time All-Star

Phillies To Sign Craig Kimbrel

Phillies will have to make a roster move when the signing becomes official.

[zambonir]

Ideally the coaching staff also has some ideas about how to use him in his old age. And I would hope he's willing to not close all the time (Matt W raised this concern on Twitter already).

Certainly he's the most accomplished reliever the Phillies have signed or traded for in a long time, maybe even since Wagner (or Lidge who'd already been through it a little). There are better/more expensive guys on paper who are no less risky, this is more like buying the most expensive thing at the outlet mall.

[fish]

Of the available pitch metrics, the only change that stands out is that his average fastball velocity dropped from 96 to 95 mph. The numbers on his slider look similar but the game video looks like he threw a lot of rollers, unless that’s his pitch for a strike as compared to the sharp one he buries. Nothing in the numbers to suggest why he was hit so hard last year- one of the worst pitchers for hard hit rate and barrels.

Maybe it’s the first step on his way to and aging decline, but oddly enough he’s had this season before, just not with the velo dip..

Maybe he needs to go back to his bird pose from the stretch. Looks like he stopped doing that last year.

Craig Kimbrel’s Signature Pre-Pitch Pose Started After an Injury

[phillychuck]

He's toast. This signing is like taking $10M outside and lighting it on fire. Sign three more good scouts in the Dominican for 10 years for that money. Plus there is opportunity cost for other relievers, and all the games we will blow when he gives up the lead. Yuk.

[Aquapong]

Hopefully we’ll be using him as a late inning option and not just installing him as closer. I prefer the strategy of using your best/hottest guy against their best, regardless of what inning it is.

[phillychuck]

Upside = about 2 WAR, in which case he's bargain. Downside = about -0.5 WAR, avert your eyes. Likely result = about +0.5 WAR, which is an overpay and probably takes innings away from Brogdon/Bellatti/McGarry who might be much better and far cheaper. Also might take high leverage innings away from Seranthony and Alvarado, which would cost wins.

A good point made elsewhere is what would we do with the money instead?

[bkeich]

The money could be used to upgrade the roster before the trade deadline to fill the need we don't know about yet. This is just a really bad signing, $10M for hopefully 0 WAR.

[zambonir]

I dunno, while those DBacks/non-DBacks numbers aren't necessarily meaningful, they do still show that a reliever's worst stretch of games can distort an entire season's numbers.

But mostly, relievers are so variable that it can go well just as easily as badly. There are a lot of older name brand guys I wouldn't have wanted to touch over the last three years who have actually been good. And a lot of bad ones too of course, many of them wearing a Phillies uniform.

Best case, he's Knebel 2.0 but hopefully bettter (and stays healthy). Worst case he's Familia 2.0. Best case, Cotham can actually do something with him. Worst case, he's another Castellanos (i.e. someone Dombrowski overrated and overpaid because of past history).

I do think this was a response to the Mets because if they'd wanted a $10 million+ reliever in general they should have done it when there were better ones available (and paid more). Now you've got a guy who might give you more than a Bellati or Familia type signing if he has a comeback; but is much harder to demote or release if he doesn't.

I do think they did probably need one more late inning arm though. Taking away innings from Seranthony and Alvarado is a feature not a bug. The money doesn't matter, if they need to spend at the deadline they will (and again, a response to the Mets). For now still probably better to spend it on a reliever than a spare-part hitter who wouldn't have a job in July.

I think they'll be happy to get 1.0 WAR from him for the money. The market's inflated. And you just shouldn't pay relievers (and proven closers) for WAR in the first place. He did pitch great for the Cubs in 2021. Of course he also pitched poorly for the White Sox in a non-closer role.

[julio]

Worst case, he's another Castellanos

Not the same, even if Kimbrel is useless - because this is a one-year contract. If he's useless, he'll be released. No four-year commitment; no wondering if he can bounce back in 2024.

Beyond that, I pretty much agree with zambonir. Kimbrel is a gamble. A $10 million gamble. But this isn't a signing that impacts future years, it isn't a signing that "blocks" prospects. Kimbrel will either be at least somewhat effective, or he'll be gone. And... it's not our money. It's not money that is going to prevent other spending (they're already over the CBT threshold). It's Dombrowski (and presumably Middleton) gambling with Middleton's money. If the gamble pays off, we all benefit; if it doesn't, Middleton is out $10 million and we move on.

[Austinfan]

I think Kimbrel is depth to avoid rushing the young arms - Phillies have a sizeable group of flamethrowers who'll be in AA and AAA ball this year - but it's a roll of the dice which, if any, take the next step, improve their command, sharpen a secondary pitch, and so on. I can't see Kimbrel ahead of SD, Alvarado or Brogdon unless he rebounds. But he'll provide solid depth. And I doubt they promised him a specific role, he doesn't have the leverage to demand a closer role or he'd be looking at a multi-year deal.

He may be falling off, he may just have been the victim of bad luck last year.

According to Eno Sarris’ model, Kimbrel is currently is a top-ten reliever by stuff; by Pitching+, which combines stuff, command, and miscellaneous variables like platoon splits, he’s in the top 20. On the other side of the internet, Cameron Grove’s model has Kimbrel’s as the 11th-best pitcher in baseball, period, with only his curveball command worse compared to last season. Not only are Kimbrel’s underlying numbers good, but so are the underlying numbers of those underlying numbers.

Craig Kimbrel Is Multiple Dilemmas in One Pitcher

[zambonir]

Of course after that article was published Kimbrel couldn't even make the Dodgers' playoff roster.

This is the problem with relievers, process/outcome is so easily flummoxed in such limited usage. But perfectly reasonable to gamble on the former in hopes of things swinging back positively in the latter. And such a pitcher can be more useful in Thomson's system than he might have been as the one and only closer.

[andyb]

I guess I am not super happy with this, though I don't think it is enough money to push us into the second tier of luxury tax payments. Stuff still seems decent. Just worried about whether he will upset things with a need to close.

One of the healthiest things this team did was to NOT have a closer last year. Seranthony was our best reliever and was generally saved for the most important outs of the game whenever they occurred.

[zambonir]

I am not too worried about the closer issue. Even Knebel wasn't promised the chance to close last year; he just happened to have the good fortune to play for Joe Girardi, who still believed in that model. Thomson has a different model. It's hard to imagine that Dombrowski would mess with that (or sign Kimbrel if he didn't say the right things about being flexible). If Kimbrel was hoping to rebuild his value as a Proven Closer for his last big contract he would have signed with a different team. As it is he probably recognizes that you can make a nice living for the last few years of your career if you buy into the flexible/high-leverage approach and still succeed.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Oops - I think you referred to Knebel instead of Kimbrel

[zambonir]

haha yeah the second (and third!) time I did.

[LoneStarPhan]

Kimbrel will provide innings in relief and if he is pitching well, provide another solid reliever for key situations. Ideally, Thomson will be able to spread the bullpen duties out so that no single pitcher gets overworked during the season. How often have we seen a game where a couple key relief pitchers were not available. Again, if it works out, there should be fewer situations where they call on a reliever to pitch back to back days. Of course, any relief pitcher is a risk but adding another experienced reliever to the pen has to help.