Phils Have 2-Year $28M Deal with Didi Gregorius

[julio]

#Phillies have a 2-year agreement with Didi Gregorius, sources tell @TheAthleticMLB

— Jayson Stark ( @jaysonst ) January 30, 2021

Gregorius deal with Phillies is two years, $28M, source tells @TheAthletic .

— Ken Rosenthal ( @Ken_Rosenthal ) January 30, 2021

[andyb]

Probably a bit more than they wanted, but also a sign that they are giving Dombrowski room to work. Didi was the obvious solution and 2 years is the right length. He is definitely needed this year and chances are that Stott is not going to win the SS job next year (I'd give it like a 10% chance). Even if Stott developed it would be a good problem to have.

This means that they are clearly going to push the luxury tax salary over $190 million to me. I think they are in the $185-$186 million range already. Dombrowski probably told them that the prospect trades they could make would not put them over the Braves. The only way to improve in the short term and not kill the future was largely with short term free agents. Didi, Bradley, Moore. JT is the only long term deal and his situation as the only catching option was unique.

Good for the Phillies. This was the right move and it is smart, not stupid money.

[Austinfan]

Didi should be able to put up at least 4 WAR over the next two seasons, he's averaged 3.3 the last four seasons, including an off year, so it's a pretty good bet. His defense is still plus, though it'll probably decline to average by 2022. Buys two years to develop a SS, whether it's Stott, Garcia, Simmons or Baylor.

[el-pietro]

Very very happy with that. Thats gotta put them at about 83-85 wins.

[baseballoldie]

Irvin traded to A's to open up 40 man spot presumably

[zambonir]

Very very happy with that. Thats gotta put them at about 83-85 wins.

But that's the problem isn't it? They might win 79, they might win 89, but they still haven't really done anything to significantly improve over last year, especially compared to the Mets and Braves. The Marlins may or may not be better just by having more experience, their season may have been fluky, but you can say the same about the Nats flop.

For the Phillies it's still all about the bullpen, if that works out things will probably be better, but only if everything else goes right. They still really need that expanded playoff format.

[el-pietro]

The pen cant be as bad, and they added Bradley. That makes them a better team than last year when they had one of the best lineups in the NL and a decent rotation.
But they need to do more in a tough division. There are still options out there. They could use a trade for another star either for the rotation or the lineup. Though there are pitchers out there still.

[flyers19rw]

Last season the Phillies were 28-32 thanks to twelve blown saves. With a half decent BP they could have won six of those games which would have made their record 34-26 with a .567 winning percentage. Put that on a 162 game scale and the Phillies would go 92-70. Its not an unrealistic view for 2021 when one adds in a full season of Bohm and hopefully less injuries to the starters.

[el-pietro]

I played around with ZIPS projections the other day for the NL East. Projections are never perfect but with Didi and JT the Phillies project to be competitive in the division, CF is still a worry though.

[andyb]

But that's the problem isn't it? They might win 79, they might win 89, but they still haven't really done anything to significantly improve over last year, especially compared to the Mets and Braves.

They have held onto their prospects and not spent huge money into the future other than Realmuto. That is actually something. We all worried Dombrowski would trade the future for a shot at winning now (and raising that 83-85 up to a still uncertain 86-88 wins).

We'll have some financial flexibility in the future. Hopefully we can start making deals where we use our cash to buy prospects a bit. If you want a team to have a chance at winning now AND a long term strategy this was the way to go. If they fail again maybe they should trade everyone including Nola, but at least this team has a plausible shot and a plausible future.

[allentown]

That takes a better bullpen than we currently have, which is why I believe the focus must now be pitching. This does not look like a 92-win tam to me, at this point. I would not call the current bullpen decent and a guy like Howard will tax the pen.

Glad to have Didi signed.

[zambonir]

Oh, I think they did the right thing, and an improved bullpen (which will happen by definition) will obviously help, but there are other things that could still very much tip in the wrong direction. I'm still not expecting Harper, Realmuto and Didi to celebrate an NL East championship together, and maybe not Nola either. But that's why they play the games, as the saying goes. If they get close, the future-trading will certainly happen.

And yeah, if they don't, the rebuild will.

And the blown saves stat is too simplistic - not all of those were in the 9th (or even 8th) inning. Bad relief pitching in tie games or even games where the Phillies trailed by 1 run was probably just as costly.. It was just a brutal bullpen no matter the situation, and so fluky that I'd even feel fine about this team's chances to win 85 games if they'd brought back every single one of last year's guys. Just be sheer chance they'd be a couple of games better, and last year's club was still 30-30 Pythagorean.

If Brogdon or Romero or Suarez can't blossom so be it, but bringing in another Robertson or Workman (or any "proven" reliever you can name who stumbled for any team) guarantees nothing either. I would almost still rather bet on a Phelps bouncing back (from what was a tiny sample in any case) than on an Alvarez being good for a third straight year.

[zambonir]

Wonder how much they got him to defer.

Didi Gregorius will receive $28 million over the two years with his #Phillies contract including deferred payments.

— Bob Nightengale ( @BNightengale ) January 30, 2021

[allentown]

and an improved bullpen (which will happen by definition) will obviously help,

This is far from a given. It's like fans saying that the Eagles injury problems were going to lessen in the past season through some magical return to the mean. But what is the mean? Just as the Eagles have had multi-year injury problems since the championship (and they lost Wentz that year), the Phillies bullpen woes weren't unique to 2020. I think it a plus that they have avoided the old, big-$ reliever signings of recent years, but arguably this off-season has seen the weakest effort to improve the pen. Hopefully it's the smartest effort and that makes up for the lack of $-focus in this area. As I look at the changes to the pen, I see more a wish and a prayer than being able to say 'problem solved!). I don't like the 'return to the mean' or 'back of the baseball card' analytical approaches, because performance trends are as likely to continue to reverse. One strong trend is the Phillies problem with developing quality home-grown relievers and also doing well in choosing who to add as a FA or through a trade. Relievers are certainly up and down season to season, but...although we've made some intriguing dumpster dives, they are all long-odds gambles.

[zambonir]

It's just such a different thing though. It's not like there are "returning starters" like on an offensive line. Only Neris fits that description, and he's actually been admirably durable and consistent for all his warts (so much so that you worry he might finally implode, if only due to age).

We also just have to hope that both the scouting and the coaching is better this year. COVID was also a factor (affecting Suarez and Arano, at least). And they blundered on Seranthony. And obviously pitching coach has been an absolute disaster for this franchise, though I think last year also shows that there's only so much a pitching coach can do - Price had talented starters and did a good job, he had lousy relievers and did a bad job. But at the end of the day, he wasn't good enough, and, it seems, wasn't sufficiently engaged either.

The 2019 team wasn't a great bullpen either, but it wasn't the thing that ruined their chances compared to Cutch's injury and the rotation.

The similiarity, I think, is that the 2019's bullpen injuries - cutting across young and old, internal and free agents - were at an epic scale, as was 2020's poor performance. Nobody thinks the bullpen can just go from giving up 7 runs every nine innings to giving up 4 runs every nine innings but even if they can get to 5.50 - the mean, if you will - last year's team would have had a winning record and playoff berth (though it remains to be seen if just being over .500 gets you one this year). That's different from hoping a 9-7 Eagles roster can get back to 12 wins.

[allentown]

That's different from hoping a 9-7 Eagles roster can get back to 12 wins.

Is it really? I look at the post above from Flyers19rw saying that a better pen will make us a 92-win team (for a team whose zenith since 2012 was the 81 wins in 2019) as an equally big leap as thinking the Eagles could go 12-4 this past season or next season. To add 11 more wins than we've had in almost a decade -- that's a tall order.

[zambonir]

Well yes but I didn't think any more of Flyers' analogy (be it the simple projection of blown saves or projecting it over 162 games) than you did, though Joe Girardi might like it (he said they would have won 10 more games last year with a normal bullpen).

I just want a bullpen that can take an 81-win team (which last year's was by XW-L) to 83 or 84. It's gonna be up to some other guys to to get to 87. 92? That would mean a few breakout or MVP caliber seasons. Or spending another $25 million (starting pitcher, OF).

I don't think any of us wanted to watch a Phillies team with Kurt Suzuki or Wilson Ramos at C and Segura at SS this season, but I also don't think the bullpen is gonna close the gap with Atlanta or LA or San Diego (and now the Cardinals have re-entered the chat. We'll see if the Mets really have).

[BostonRoss]

the Phillies bullpen woes weren't unique to 2020.

I think they were unique. Their bullpen WAR was -3.5, which would project to about -9 in a full season. Going back to 2012, the Phillies bullpen WAR has never been less than -6. Only one NL team has had a bullpen WAR worse than -9 in that period.

[Austinfan]

The wildcard is the coaching, they certainly had some funky coaching the last few years.
If you can turnaround, take it up a notch with 2-3 players, that can make a big difference.
Last few years few pitchers developed, Eflin, SD and Arano, and the last two got injured.
Same on the field, Bohm is a natural, but Quinn, Haseley, Kingery, etc.

[zambonir]

Yeah, that's the thing our bullpen can still stink and add three wins. It was just that bad. If they can get to mediocre or average, now we're really dancing!

It's just so hard to take away anything from last year. Some of the worst members of the bullpen were guys who didn't pitch at all by the end of the season. And they lost Alvarez and Morgan on top of that. And lost a lot of 7-inning games. And spot starts that required good 5th-inning relief pitching, which few teams have.

And while the season kind of fell apart in Miami, on September 19 the Phillies were still 27-25. They lost seven of their next eight. Two of those were late-inning bullpen issues (both in tie games, not blown saves). And they missed by two. But there were other ways to win other games.

I'm not a big believer in the coaching staff making that much of a difference, but Girardi is likely to be better over a full season, and also for having gotten the first one out of the way.