Phillies win total in 2020?

[zambonir]

The over/under was 31 last time I looked. Mets 32, Nats 33, Braves 33.5. But I would not be surprised if everyone is lower.

Apparently I missed the chance to place a bet, it ended when the Nats-Yankees game started. I had never placed one on the 162-game schedule.

• 32 wins or more
• 31 wins
• 30 wins
• 29 wins
• 28 wins or less

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[LoneStarPhan]

As always, I start every season optimistically feeling the Phillies will do well.

[zambonir]

I'm kind of glad I couldn't bet, my instinct would be under (I voted for 30) but I feel like the nature of this season is too unpredictable. We could be in fourth place as predicted (both in normal and new season) or we could be the second-best team in the NL (I'll concede the Dodgers). Having Howard and Bohm almost immediately could be a huge boost or they could have a six-week learning curve, by which point the season will be over.

On the plus side our lesser starting pitchers have a history of being able to put together two good/healthy months, and just about any hitter can be an All-Star for two months. All in the timing.

[xogfog]

I'm hoping in the short season we get strong outings from Nola with no late season fade, Arrieta may have some fumes left in the tank for 12 good starts, Wheeler too. Spencer Howard comes out blazin' and you have Eflin to round out with two other starters in VV and Pivetta to pick up major innings in some "split starts" To me, the season hinges on how good the bullpen is going to be. I don't like the way it looks right now, but it could surprise. They should hit. I voted for 32 or more, but I think really two games plus or minus, so 30 or 34 wouldn't shock me, under .500 would shock me, especially with Girardi at the helm.

[zambonir]

I'm of the school that doesn't think Girardi will make a huge difference but it seems like he might get a "new manager" bump over 60 that wouldn't last for 162. The question of how much difference a manager makes takes on a whole new meaning now, given restricted interactions. Also, he was without his bench coach for most of camp, so that's interesting.

As is the fact that it's the same coaching staff - but obviously pitching and hitting are the big ones and those changed. I do think could be really promising. Price was a much better pitching coach than he was a manager and this is his first shot at that since 2013.

We all knew Nola wouldn't be as good in 2019 as he was in 2018 but now he can be better than last year. And surely Hoskins will be.

[el-pietro]

60 games means the same team could win 20 or 40 games easily without it being too weird. We saw the Nationals go on a horrific start to the season and then win it all last year, and we've seen the Phillies get off to hot strats and then have late season collapses the last two years.
Add to that the funky schedules and the cloud of Covid-19 looming over every team and it means that luck will be a much larger factor than in normal years. We could lose two or three of our best players for a week due to a positive test and have them miss 10% of the season without having any real injury, or symptoms. Equally a player who goes on the 10 day list for a minor injury will miss at least 1/6th of the season. This is true for everyone and impossible to know who will be most negatively impacted so you have to ignore it when making predictions.

31 games is equivalent to 83.7, or 84 Wins in a regular 162, and even with the tough schedule you have to be hoping that this is a better team than that, I'm not sure we're quite a 90 win team but I think 90 wins is reasonable so I'd put this 60 win team at about 33-34 wins, which should be good enough for second in the division.

[zambonir]

Optimistic group!

Fangraphs projects Braves to win 33 games, Mets and Nats 32 and Phillies 31, so basically they don't see the equivalent of 90-win team in the division (only the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers cross that threshold). I think the shortened and limited scheduled is expected to lend itself to a lot more parity. 31 is probably still a playoff team now (the 31-win cut-off in the Fangraphs projection is actually 17 teams, so one club would get tiebreaked out). 32 almost definitely is.

Here's your pessimism: ZIPS says 28 wins.

The Official ZiPS 2020 Projected Standings

If memory serves we weren't projected to win more than 83 or 84 games in the full-season round-ups.

[flyers19rw]

Due to the over abundance of question marks with this club, I don’t care for it very much. It Girardi can pull some rabbits out of his hat, they might break even. For the rotation to be good, at least two SPs have to exceed career norms. The BP is loaded with typical BP guys which means they could be good or a grease fire since most RPs are unpredictable from one season to another. Aside from Harper and Realmuto, most of the position players have unknowns tagged to them. Even with JT, being unsigned may affect his play. The best start to the season would be the announcement of a new deal with a Realmuto.