Phillies under/over prediction poll

[zambonir]

Just gonna leave it at that this year since the various tiers are never quite right/precise.

• UNDER 89.5 wins
• OVER 89.5 wins

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I would have reflexively leaned over, but some of the projections are much more negative.

Fangraphs: 85

Athletic: 86

But, OTOH...

BBref: 93.2

Joe Sheehan (no stats model here I don't think): 95

[zambonir]

I voted under. Influenced by those lower projections I'm sure, but also thinking there's not really much room for this year's team to be better than last year's team.

Bullpen truly has nowhere to go but down.

Most of the hitters will probably be worse, and the younger hitters are still not All-Star level guys. Turner should be better but Castellanos or Schwarber might not be.

Wheeler, Nola and Suarez are where the improvement could come from, as none of them had peak years last year by any means.

[jimbomill]

I went with the lower projection. If I'm wrong, I'm happy.

[BaseballCat]

Being optimistic with my glass half full. We are starting healthy for the most part and DD may dig deep at the deadline if needed.

[zambonir]

I put real money on a range bet of 88-93. Would obviously be very sad if I lost money and if the Phillies only won 87 (though that probably still gets them into the playoffs), and happy if I lost money and they won 94.

Really can't bring myself to touch the 89.5 though. Injuries are the main thing. But you are probably right that all the chips will be on the table this deadline (and next season) if necessary.

[donaldorc]

May I wait to vote until after the opening series with the Braves?

[RolenRules]

Under. I'm not as optimistic as I was last year. I have a bad feeling that age will start to catch up to some of the major contributors, and that they will struggle to get the last playoff spot.

[zambonir]

Sure (as far as I know) but would you have gone with over 89.5 after last year's 0-3 start?

I can talk myself into both sides of this for sure. They could end up being 7-8 games ahead of last year's poor start by June 2, with any one of three pitchers competing for the CY and a good enough offense. And last year's team won what they won despite down years from those three pitchers (relatively speaking) and many, many innings of Jake Cave and Kody Clemens and Edmundo Sosa instead of Rhys Hoskins (and Harper, for a bit).

Or it could all fall apart - Schwarber, JT and Castellanos all going in the wrong direction, Bohm never getting truly better, Turner only being slightly better than he wound up being once he came around, Harper and Marsh both a few ticks worse (from a very high start), bullpen a mess. (Starting pitching I still feel good about but it only takes one injury.)

I would prefer the 6th playoff spot to the 5th playoff spot, I think.

[Sabin]

It appears someone needs to explain how this works to Julio.

[zambonir]

Didn't know you could that. Maybe he's saying they will win exactly 89.5

[allentown]

I predict exactly 90 wins, so barely over. A 90-72 regular season.

[BostonRoss]

After my vote I see 52% over and 52% under. With that kind of math, maybe the Phillies can win more games than they play!

[zambonir]

Same team as last year same record as last year?

[VoteForKalas]

I went with 87 wins

[Jazzhead]

I voted over. I'm expecting better years from Turner, Harper, Nola, Suarez and Seranthony, and for Kerkoran to pitch meaningful innings in relief.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Maybe he's saying they will win exactly 89.5

The Phillies did lead the league in ties this Spring.

[julio]

It appears someone needs to explain how this works to Julio.

[phillychuck]

They will be over if healthy, but what teams stays healthy these days? They have precious little depth.

[zambonir]

Depth is arguably better than last year if Merrifield is any good. Pache also a fine option for any shorter OF injury (but he'd have to stay healthy himself). They've got an entire major league team of AAAA position players. Just no prospects who could step in (didn't last year either until they rushed Rojas). None in AA either. Just a lot of older young guys in Allentown completing that transition from prospect to journeyman.

They don't lack for 6th starters either. Didn't seem that way before spring training and might not stay that way through July (depending how they do, and on Walker) but they have quantity.

[zambonir]

Looking pretty good for the over (current pace: 112)