That is certainly one way to cash in on on AFL hype.
Also, FWIW, Dombrowski has a habit of doing multiple deals with the same teams (Detroit twice last year, Anaheim twice on deadline day the year before, even the Rangers deal in 2021 which was kind of two trades in one).
I don't think it is clear that we won the deal. I just like the deal because I don't think Dunn was ready to make our roster and this gives us 40-man flexibility and some lottery tickets.
If Milwaukee has immediate space for him on their 40 (and potentially in the majors) it makes sense for them. Dunn is flawed with his age and modest ceiling, but he is ready now. We got 2 prospects with their own flaws who both have at least 2 more years to improve enough to become real prospects. Both had somewhat disappointing years so it is unclear if they would have made Milwaukee's new top 30. Dunn would have made ours near the back end (likely 25-30 range).
Don't jump for joy just yet fellas. for an average tool player and one that has wheels. This is TBD. Dunn will be in the majors this year. I would have rather had a top 30 arm included, since I'm worried that Abel and McGowan are going to be dealt this off season. Not happy about that.
gm
This team loves their glove first outfielders.
Anyway, it seems like a good deal, though I do wish we got an arm instead. The alternative was not protecting Dunn and losing him, so in that sense, it's a pretty savvy move by DD.
I am seeing a 26 year old that has barely played in AAA and now must be protected or lost. Maybe I am missing something, but his value seems near zero. With only 14 spots available for minor leaguers that are not in the majors he doesn’t seem like a good bet, were we going to protect him or expose him to Rule 5? My guess is expose and he is just the type of player that a bottom of the league team takes a chance on as a utility player for a year. Once again, not really valuable to the team that will have to now protect or lose him.
We got something for what appears to be almost nothing.
Dunn could have helped us, Clemons and Castro haven't shown anything, though Castro is young enough to hope for a turnaround. And we're thin at IF right now at the upper levels, Kroon does play almost every position but he's a ??? and injury prone. Simmons and Rincon should start the season in Reading, Bergolla in JS, the rest are further away.
Makes we wonder if they've already targeted someone in FA they want to add?
There's also Weston Wilson.
I suspect the second utility infielder (Sosa being the first, of course) will be one of Castro, Wilson, or a free agent (next season's Josh Harrison).
Makes you wonder if they've targeted some players in the Rule 5 draft and wanted to clear a slot in case they became available.
Dunn or Castro????? I know who I would pick but I'm not Dave. Maybe Castro will be better this year. or as AF stated, they might have someone else on their radar.
gm
He is universally seen to have improved enough to have like a 90% chance of being a major leaguer for at least several years. Both the prospects we got are less than 50% likely at this point.
We lose present value in Dunn. But get 40-man roster flexibility and 2 low level lottery tickets. Small long term win for us but a short term loss (which is less important if we think Clemens is as good as Dunn). Remember that AAAA players with all their options have value. It is why we acquired Rodolfo Castro (for the extra option year). Dunn has 3 options remaining.
Clemens was better in AAA than Dunn was in AA this year. Castro is 2 years younger than Dunn and has already showed he could be a platoon player in the majors.
We valued those guys over Dunn. I know you love Dunn, but the Phillies don't make this deal if they think Dunn is better than either Clemens or Castro. They think both players are better than Dunn.
It is possible we are interested in drafting a rule 5 player, but just as likely we know we will need the spots. We'll need one for De La Cruz if we protect him. And we'll need 3 spots for a starter to replace Nola, a reliever to replace Kimbrel, and a LF to replace Hoskins. Probably small chance we draft somebody but I doubt there is anyone we really love for a roster that loves to churn anyone on the 40 with options through their bullpen.
Means the Phils did not want to protect him on the 40-man. Looked like there was plenty of room to me. The Phils scouts must really like the guys we got. The Phils scouts see talent where others can't. Just gambling, IMHO, which is fine.
There could still be some non-tenders and trades ahead, but you gotta make the protection decisions now. It may well suggest they do intend to strike early in free agency too.
MLB Top Prospects list already updated. Dunn is 23 on Brewers. Robert Moore 25 and Hendry Mendez 30 on Phils.
Good sign that they rank lower on our list than they did on Milwaukee's list, could be due to off seasons, but also due to us having a deeper system.
MLB.com has a huge bias in overranking traded prospects, especially when their whole list itself has not be re-ranked since midseason. These prospects both had bad years. They may have barely made the new Milwaukee list if at all.
I like that we may entering a new phase in the path of the development system that there are guys they don't have room for on the 40 and which have trade value to use to try to grow the talent base in the system. On the surface Robert Moore is a pedigreed guy that looks to be the hitting equivalent of Casey Martin, but the walk/strikeout mix looks a bit more promising for Moore.
Moore seems much less athletic and toolsy than a Martin though. He steals bases more from pedigree than speed and that might not translate at upper levels. He is a nice prospect to have of course with 2 more years to prove himself before rule 5 eligibility.
This trade was all about the 40-man roster and the Phillies just feeling they can do better than Dunn. Almost everyone on the roster needs to play. At most teams can afford 2 or 3 younger prospects that are not quite ready (like Rojas when he was initially put on the roster). Everyone else needs to play. Castro will be our 27th man and the team likes him more than Dunn apparently. All the relievers with options will rotate through our roster throughout the year.
40-man rosters spots are just precious with a 26-man active roster and rising pitching injuries. Carlos De La Cruz is a prospect they like I am pretty sure. They just don't believe he sticks on a major league roster now because he is not ready.
split this topic Nov 15, '23
It’s a good strategy though- and really in the big picture, the path to creating more value from Moore than Dunn is to get him to take a step forward with his development and put up some solid numbers i A+ or AA so that he has more greater “prospect” trade value than Dunn had when it comes time for midseason trades.
