Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

[Austinfan]

Merrifield really fell off in August and September, .580 and .472 OPS, some of that was BABIP, .264 and .220, but soft hit balls rose, 12.7%, 16.7%, 14.5%, 15.6%, to 19.4% and 25.6% the last two months, suggesting the decline in BABIP was due in part to a drop in exit velocity.

So the "wore down" story has some empirical evidence behind it.

[Austinfan]

Zac Houston

A live arm with a high K rate, high BB rate, RP who has struggled in AA and AAA the last few years.
A body for Lehigh, long relief until he shows otherwise.

[julio]

Turnbull looked decent today, but the ump had a pretty large K-zone, which helped.

Well, it didn't help certain other pitchers much!

[andyb]

So the "wore down" story has some empirical evidence behind it.

Getting older also works when you consider the huge sample sizes of 2021 and 2022 also. And his BABIP for the entire year was up over recent history and MLB averages. So he got lucky early and unlucky late and mostly it added up to something about like his previous 2 years. Most of his projections are for sub-700 OPS. He still can be useful and platooning will help even if he has minimal platoon splits. I'd rather Cave get extra OF playing time against RHP than Merrifield.

[Austinfan]

"Age" and worn down are not contradictory, as players age, it's harder for them to play a full season, and in most sports, older players tend to have their PT reduced to keep them fresh.

In 2022 he struggled the first half with 300 PA through June, played better the second half with only 218 PA the rest of the season. 635 OPS the first half, .750 the second half, BABIP .266/.300..

In 2021 he was a full time starter, OPS .728 first half, .693 second half despite a rise in BABIP from .291 to .330.

So he probably should have been rested more even before last season.
In fact, given the age of a lot of Philly starters, they might want to sub more frequently than the last couple years and limit the over 30 guys to 150 or less games.

[andyb]

One could also term a BABIP over .340 through July as luck. Luck balances out.

He might also play worse with less playing time because he wasn't used to it. I know you love a narrative and are searching for facts to justify it, but there is just more evidence that he is not as good in his mid-30s as he was in his late 20s and early 30s.

Frankly this is the worry with JT too. The Phillies are making up a bad habits excuse to fit a narrative, but really he is at an age where virtually all catchers regress.

[zambonir]

z, why would one look to Tango's system to project players who have significant time in the minors over the last few years? He specifically excludes minor league data.

Well, that's the debate we're having I guess but why would BBRef use it? (Other than, ZIPs and Steamer belong to other sites, but you'd think they or Tango could update).

In any case, they are still just projections.

[phillychuck]

Agree!

[zambonir]

Lots of Phillies/Montgomery tweets. Seems unlikely (and unnecessary) given Walker is basically the 5th starter. But let's hope Turnbull is better than Falter (it was Strahm who replaced Suarez of course).

[zambonir]

Kind of vague, but...

Thomson said no outfield decisions had been made. But there were indications this weekend that the Phillies could carry both Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache on the Opening Day roster — leaving Jake Cave in limbo.

Taijuan Walker's sudden injury could thrust Spencer Turnbull into Phillies'...

Gelb reckons Ortiz, Marte and Brogdon are the easy bullpen picks for now, but they could add Ruiz to the 40, or claim someone in the coming days. (Covey, Kerkering and Walker now likely to be on IL with Turnbull in rotation instead of pen.)

[phillychuck]

Here is a combo of what I think they should do and is also plausible.

Realmuto
Harper
Stott
Turner
Bohm
Marsh
Pasche
Castellanos
Schwarber
Cave
Merrifield
E.Sosa
Stubbs

Wheeler
Nola
Suarez
Sanchez
Turnbull

Alvarado
Hoffman
Strahm
Dominguez
Ortiz
Marte
Brogdon
Soto

IL:
Walker
Covey
Kerkering

AAA:
Rojas
Clemens
Rucker
Others...

[zambonir]

Did you put Soto out there on purpose? They really do look a little thin if he can't be better than he was last year (though he wasn't bad, overall) and Kerkering needs some time to take on higher-leverage spots. Ortiz was gonna be the long man in that pen, and I don't have a ton of faith in Brogdon (who I guess can take that role for now, and if he's no good he probably gets DFAe'd once Walker comes back anyway, assuming Turnbull goes to pen).

I wonder if they'll takes some of the extra guys to Philly tomorrow or make all the decisions before anyone gets on a plane.

PS, good chance of another Opening Day rain situation.

[andyb]

As I suspected, that Athletic article implies the Phillies do not want to lose Pache and Cave's status could be dependent upon Rojas. They are not saying they might demote him, but reading between the lines one has to think it is 50-50. Both Marte and Brogdon are also lined up for the last bullpen spots (Ortiz seems a certainty). But Jose Ruiz has really pitched better than Marte and Brogdon. If I had to guess they'll give Brogdon a chance to avoid the DFA since they'll need Ruiz at some no matter what. Sometimes options dictate decisions in a world where everyone runs through 20-25 pitchers over the course of the season.

[DurhamBull]

I'm excited about Rojas long term, but I agree with you that the Phils can afford to start in him in AAA thanks to Pache. I think it's worth seeing what Pache could do as the starting CF 4-5 times per week. Re-evaluate after a month.

[zambonir]

It would be interesting if not wanting lose Pache and being willing to play him frequently (as opposed to having to see a whole lot more of Cave and Merrifield with Marsh in CF) ends up being the path for Rojas to AAA. But Gelb's (admittedly vague) comment suggests it's more that they are willing to lose Cave if necessary, then bury Pache on the bench at least until they see if Rojas works out.

I also can't help but wonder if the Harper issue is part of this (I.e. if Schwarber is going to play LF twice a week for a while that's even less need for Cave).

Sure would be a whole lot easier if Merrifield was LH (including for 3B).

[BostonRoss]

I feel a bit less comfortable with the bullpen going into this season compared to a year ago. Of course we had Kimbrel last year, and based on past performance I thought Soto, Bellatti, and Brogdon would be better than they turned out to be. We also had Andrew Vazquez, who really wasn't too bad (though he tanked when he went to the Tigers). On the other hand, we didn't have Hoffman yet, who was much better than I would have expected. And Strahm was in the rotation, though we knew it would be temporary. (We did have Yunior Marte, though!)

Even with Soto, Bellatti, and Brogdon not really doing what we thought (though Soto actually pitched well most times, he was really bad in several outings, rendering his trustworthiness problematic), the bullpen ended up pretty good in 2023. I think we will be fine, but it seems likely that some people we feel are reliable now will be much worse.

[Squire]

Traded OF Jake Cave to the Rockies for Cash Considerations

Extended LHP Matt Strahm through 2025 with a vesting option for 2026

[Austinfan]

Lehigh loaded with AAA plus types:
C: Marchan (25), Roberts (28)
1B: Hall (29), De La Cruz (24)
2B: Kingery (30)
SS: Castro (25)
2B: Ellis (28), Clemons (27)
IF/OF: Kroon (27), Podkul (27), Wilson (30)
OF: Dahl (30), Luplow (30), Muzzioti (25)

[Callison]

It seemed like the Phils were stockpiling relievers with upside. Too bad none of them have looked good enough to displace some of the proven inconsistent guys, like Bellatti, Brogdon, Marte, Covey. If the Phils decide they like you, you have to work hard to change their minds.

I wish Cave good luck. That answers the Cave-Pache question. Pache is younger, so better upside. The Phils must really like Pache. Making room for somebody.

[phillychuck]

Sorry to see Cave go, good luck to him. Except v the Phils.

Cash considerations usually = $1.