Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

zambonir 2024-03-22 19:30:17 UTC #441

I've long been in favor of trading Sosa to get a LH IF on the bench but he's definitely a lock. Otherwise he'd have to be traded (decent salary, no options).

They don't really want to have Stott play SS either.

I think Clemens actually has played SS (and at least more recently than Merrifield), but that wouldn't happen either.

The Harper to DH thing is just not ideal regardless. You don't want to bench Schwarber or play him in LF too much. But if you were gonna Clemens can play 1B (so can Merrifield for that matter). I can't imagine they would pick a Cave/Marsh OF over a Schwarber/Marsh OF against RHP.

bkox 2024-03-22 19:36:38 UTC #442

I hope this Harper back situation puts an end to that silly extension and playing till age 45 talk.

andyb 2024-03-22 19:40:23 UTC #443

We've got bigger problems if Harper needs to DH often. The articles don't imply this would be for more than a few games. If I had to guess they may not want him to be in the field on back to back games for a week or so since he has played so little so far.

We have a day off after opening day, so maybe they want Harper to rest/DH on the two day games after night games (Sunday and then Wednesday) that first week.

Austinfan 2024-03-22 20:53:55 UTC #444

I thought Cave deserved a shot last year. He got his shot, he failed. He's now 30. Move on.

phillychuck 2024-03-22 21:14:05 UTC #445

Soto gave up 4 in the ninth for a 4-3 loss today. This spring is a BAD portent for the upcoming season. This game was better than most except for the lousy 9th inning, though. Cave had a nice hit early vs a tough lefty.

andyb 2024-03-22 21:18:58 UTC #446

That is not how roster decisions are made. Is he the best fit for that roster spot today? He might be. And last year was not all bad. His AAA stats DO count even if offense was inflated that year. Guessing they translate into a 750-800 OPS major league equivalent performance. He played poorly for the big club of course, but he has had decent major league seasons before.

They would not have brought him back if they wanted to completely move on. They may well upgrade the position, but Cave is there because the Phillies like what he brings to the roster. Cheap left-handed bat with decent corner defense who does not need AB in the minors.

LoneStarPhan 2024-03-22 21:58:25 UTC #447

Spring training games are not always an indication of how the team will start the season, but no wins in the last ten games sure does not inspire confidence in me.

I'm looking forward to a fast start this year. A win in the first series will be great.

zambonir 2024-03-22 22:12:55 UTC #448

Yeah Cave could have easily lost his job if Dahl had taken it, or if Clemens could really play LF regularly, but that hasn't happened. He could have also still lost it to Pache if they decided they didn't need a LH bat on the bench at all for a while. Of course the roster isn't final for another six days (even then it's not).

Still not paying much mind to the team's ST record, but don't like to see that from Soto, We started this month saying that at least the guys doing that in the 9th wouldn't be on the team.

Austinfan 2024-03-22 23:22:02 UTC #449

Cave had two decent ML seasons at age 25 and 26, since then, WRC+ 85, 50, 81, 66.
Despite having good AAA seasons, 2019 WRC+ 147, 2022: 130, 2023: 170
As his range declines, he's no longer a plus fielder at 31.
He is what he is, with zero upside.

andyb 2024-03-22 23:32:56 UTC #450

And he still may be the best player in camp for the roster spot. Pache is much more valuable. There is just a question whether the roster is better with both him and Rojas on it since Merriffield would get most of the right-handed LF playing time in that situation.

You may not like Cave, but if so be angry at the Phillies for not getting somebody better. And the AAA stuff does count. It was recent and a large sample and suggests Cave is at least a little better than he was at the major league level last year.

Austinfan 2024-03-22 23:47:07 UTC #451

AAA performances are far more meaningful for players in their early to mid-20s, after a few years in AAA ball, hitters learn how to "play" junk ball pitchers (who lack command or they'd be in the Show) and younger pitchers. When he fails to translate that kind of production to the majors, it's obvious he has major flaws which ML pitchers know how to exploit.

I'm skeptical of Clemons as well, WRC+ 104, 121, 129 in AAA.

Dahl is a better bet, ML WRC+ 113, 111, 111 then fell apart due to injury, so if he's healthy, you can at least make a case he might rebound.

Luplow is also 30, but he's had the most recent ML level performance in 2021, WRC+ 117, followed by 79 and last year marred by injuries.

andyb 2024-03-23 04:12:20 UTC #452

There is much more evidence that AAA is simply a level below the majors. Performance in AAA can be evaluated just like performance at any other level. Cave obviously learned how to dominate at AAA like players often do repeating a level. It is still meaningful though.

I guess the Phillies are dumb because they obviously see that AAA performance as an indication that Cave is better potentially than the typical AAA player. Dahl is really not a better bet. He has gotten worse the last few years. He is worse in the majors AND worse in AAA. Stats are meaningful whereever they occur. More data on a player is always better than less. As I said, Cave's AAA performance projects to a better player than Dahl. ZIPS has him at 740 OPS while Dahl is at 684 OPS. That is why (along with scouting reports) he is with the Phillies now.

Austinfan 2024-03-23 14:05:22 UTC #453

In every sport, there are players who excel at a level just below the top, but have a fatal flaw that's exposed against better competition. When a player tears up AAA at a younger age, he may or may not have that flaw, when a player consistently tears up AAA at an older age, he obviously has a fatal flaw if he fails repeatedly at the next level. You see this in ice hockey with players who are AHL or KHL stars, but can't cut it in the NHL (usually lack of speed), you see this in baseball where a hitter can't hit a breaking ball but can lay off it against AAA pitchers who don't have command, but is helpless against ML pitchers, or conversely, can wait on breaking balls in AAA but can't handle heat at the ML level.

In the case of Dahl, it's obviously injuries, not flaws, that have held him back, same with Luplaw - which is why they're good gambles. Often those injuries sap a player's ability and lead to early retirement, but there are a number of players who rebound once they get healthy again. Cave has had numerous shots at the majors, with substantial PA in each shot, at some point there just isn't anything there.

andyb 2024-03-23 14:14:10 UTC #454

Dahl has not been good for 5 years. It is a little more than injuries. Bottom line is the Phillies fundamentally disagree with you. Is Cave more than a AAAA player? Probably not. But he is also probably better than the alternatives in camp and ignoring half his playing record is just not a good way to evaluate him.

zambonir 2024-03-23 14:42:22 UTC #455

Also Dahl was only good in Colorado yeah?

They're all AAAA players, and while I'm not convinced Cave's AAA/ST mean much at this point when you do have last year's major league performance to go on, he's still no better or worse than the others, he's on the 40, and I'm sure his being on the team last year is a not insignificant factor.

Still pretty normal to fill out a bench with a player of that quality in any case. The issue is more that the Phillies still lack a young player (even at the level of a Luke Williams/Guthrie/Maton/Vierling/Haseley) for the role. The ones they have (Pache, Hall, Clemens, Wilson who's not really young but is at least on the 40) either bat from the wrong side or play the wrong position.

We'll see what happens between now and next weekend.

Austinfan 2024-03-23 14:46:45 UTC #456

Phillies absolutely need both A ball teams to rock out, and some prospects to push their way to AA this year.
Can't do much about 2024, but hopefully young players will be in AAA by 2025 and 2026 and they'll have more options than broke down veterans and AAAA types.
Shows why you need a top ten farm system even when you have money if you want to seriously compete every year.

zambonir 2024-03-23 14:57:12 UTC #457

Luplaw is terrible. Has never gotten a hit at any level. May not even exist.

The story you are telling about Luplow and Dahl is just as easy to tell about Cave. He started struggling during the COVID season and then the dude broke his back in 2021. Everything he's doing since then, including last season, has been part of attempting to return to full health and form/timing, which is also really hard to do if you're a major league bench player. His AAA/spring training numbers actually suggest he'd be better off on a team with smaller ambitions, playing every day, or at least every day against RHP. He's barely going to play for the Phillies (assuming everyone is healthy and Rojas is the CF) which means he's unlikely to really get hot, but it also doesn't matter. He will play so little, IMO, that they could still consider keeping Pache, or giving the spot to Clemens if they really are worried about Harper. But it won't go to Dahl (and Luplow's already been sent down).

allentown 2024-03-23 15:09:47 UTC #458

And easier to tell about Kingery. All of these guys are marginal and throw the spaghetti against the wall and see if it sticks guys. Totally fungible. I admit, in my mind so is Merrifield and I may very well be proven wrong on that one as he only needs to be okay for one year.

By the way, why are the spelling police out in such force lately?

zambonir 2024-03-23 15:31:45 UTC #459

Just to be snarky and extra-argumentative? Also that's the tradition set from the top

But also for real I think people really don't know who someone means when a name is mangled. And I don't know why anyone wouldn't use the edit function. (I make typos in almost every post, and probably don't catch all of them either. Have also had mods go into my post and fix them for me.

I agree Merrifield may well be just as big a fungible. And therefore perfectly fine in the limited role for which he is overpaid. Though Harrison (who was fairly paid) obviously was not last year.

Kingery could probably do almost as well as Sosa if he was the actual utility IF. I wouldn't really try to roll with him in the OF at all but you could say the same about Merrifield. And Clemens is probably better and a better fit as far as giving Bohm days off.

Sosa obviously the better SS.

julio 2024-03-23 15:58:27 UTC #460

I'm sorry, but I have to comment here.

I don't get bugged by somebody misspelling Luplow's name (if that's the spelling!), because he's nobody much, he's new, and he's probably gone soon.

And I'm not bothered when people get their wires totally crossed and refer to one player while meaning another (I'm 70; this stuff happens!).

I did get bugged at people who couldn't manage to keep Scott Rolen and Jimmy Rollins separate, in their writing if not in their heads. It seems to me that there's some kind of minimum consciousness that's required to actually be a Phillies phan, and keeping potential Hall of Fame Phillies separate from one another feels like it should be part of that minimum.

Now, when we had a Machado and a Mercado, and people confused that...yeah, that's understandable. And combining them into a Merchado... well, he was almost as outstanding as Kevin Oudeis.