Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't think it's unreasonable to worry more about a younger player. It's for his own good. The Phillies 100% can make Rojas their starting CF and it will not hurt the team one bit. He could put up a .500 OPS for two months and it probably won't cost the Phillies a single game. But he may not be able to learn to hit on the job, much as Pache did not. andy has been saying this all along.

But there's probably only about 1/3 chance of that happening, and if it does you can still send him down before it's an actual spiral, just like they sent Stott down.

1/3 chance he's just okay, and has his ups and downs while still being one of the five best players in the line-up overall (just because of defensive WAR).

1/3 chance he picks up exactly where he left off last season (not in the post-season) and has a higher WAR than every one but Harper.

I personally don't think the Phillies are talking or thinking about this at all. It's only the press, and not even the press that covers the team closely (the Philly Voice writer didn't write that in Florida).

[bkox]

If it were up to me, I would step on Schwarber's foot, announce he has an injury and place him on the 60 day IL. Activate him on June 1st

[zambonir]

Schwarber had a perfectly fine spring training last year and an 1100 OPS at the WBC, so truly, his performance right now means nothing. Last year he was also hurt and struggling in the field, so I'm hoping he has one of his better Aprils this time around. His career OPS in April and May is around .750 so it's all relative anyway. We only wish Jake Cave or Darrick Hall could consistently put up a .750 OPS as an every day MLB player.

[bkox]

yeah... I was joking..

[julio]

Young players are held to higher standards b/c they're fighting for jobs and lack track records.
Schwarber has a long history of starting slow then tearing it up once you get to June or so.

Yes he does. But regardless of that, the year will come when his slow start just never ends. And he’ll probably get an entire bad season, or more, before people accept that he’s done. Very few players are both self-secure and objective enough to recognize the end themselves, before everyone else accepts reality. (Kudos to Michael Jack Schmidt for declining to embarrass himself!)

That said, Rojas is not a complete unknown. He has huge defensive value, regardless of his offense. His regular-season performance at the plate last year was better than expected. He struggled in the post-season…was he the only player who did, or are we holding his inexperience against him with regard to that, too?

[xogfog]

They may start the year with Marsh in CF and Merrifield in Left, with Rojas as a late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner and spot starts.

[phillychuck]

Rojas needs ABs to get better. I would hope they would not use him as a spot starter/defensive replacement. Have him go to AAA and work things out.

[Austinfan]

They have Pache for that role, he's almost as good defensively as Rojas.
In that case, Rojas starts the season in AAA ball, and Pache/Marsh platoon in CF with Pache coming in for defense.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Phillies signed Jordan Luplow to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.

[Austinfan]

RH OF, mediocre but not awful defense, walks, hits for power every other season.
Could be a platoon OF but only if they don't want Marsh to face LHs.
More likely a boost for Lehigh.

[zambonir]

Yeah if you just want a 5th OF/back-up CF you've got Pache. But then Jake Cave (or some other LHB) is playing LF just as often as Merrifield, because there are far more RHPs and he's better defensively. It would probably be 50-50 not 66-33 because Merrifield has hit from weak side decently in the past, but at his current age and recent level of performance (three years not three months), he's not an everyday player in LF (and you'd also be stripping him of his utility, a big part of his value).

[andyb]

Rojas isn’t having much of a spring. But you know, I took a quick look at the spring stats for the Phils… and Schwarber’s spring OPS is lower than Rojas’. Should we be obsessing over whether Schwarber is done, should be released (he can’t be optioned)? Or is it just that Rojas is young, and young players are held to different (more demanding) standards than old ones?

That is just silly. There is something called a track record. Schwarber has one and Rojas really does not having skipped AAA. I am not ready to send him down yet, but would it be a surprise if we needed to send down the guy that has not really proven himself offensively in the minors?

[zambonir]

It is another example of old Phillies derangement syndrome. We are just used to them burying guys in AAA, or at least just being more conservative about how fast they jump guys. Whereas the MLB trend is now to fast-track guys, with the new CBA giving addition motive to do so.

And in fact, the Klentak/Dombrowski Phillies have been in keeping with that trend, except with poor results.

2017 Adam Haseley, just 18 games in AAA before his 2019 debut. Had to go back there in 2021. A bust.

2018 Alec Bohm, 0 games in AAA before his 2020 debut, due to COVID. Tore it up, but struggled and was demoted back there in 2021. Arguably has never developed as well as he might have.

2019 Bryson Stott, 10 games in AAA before his 2022 debut, was demoted back to AAA early in that season before injury recall. That one worked out as he learned on the job due to Segura's injury and Didi's steep decline. Had a .653 OPS, about what we'd like to see from Rojas.

Also easy to forget that in 2022 there was talk of Bohm losing his job to Stott (indirectly, with Segura playing 3B).

And those were all college hitters too, older than Rojas is now.

Kingery, of course was also rushed. Crawford (he was ready) and Moniak (he needed to stay down) not so much. No other guys to really talk about either way because there just weren't any guys. Dom Brown was a little of both (got rushed as an injury replacement to Vic, then got buried later).

Right now there are two separate issues: the Phillies possibly thinking Rojas is ready, and the Phillies possibly overvaluing the veteran Merrifield. But I don't think demoting the former has anything to do with the latter. Quite the contrary - I still think they picked the Rojas path when they signed Merrifield, and if they feel Rojas needs more than 6-8 weeks in they really do need to find that upgrade over Dahl or Cave (but also should have signed Pham instead of Merrifield).

[andyb]

I am fine reaching out to AA to grab Rojas because he was already on the 40-man roster. He could survive in the majors defensively at that point and any offense was a bonus. The same was true of Muzziotti a couple of years ago though we never saw any offense. Rojas is a higher level prospect than Muzziotti, so him exceeding expectations was more likely and he did on offense. But there is also a "first time around the league" factor that sometimes hides flaws.

If we had to go with Pache for a few months as the platoon CF there are worse things. That might also be a reason we keep Pache over Cave as the 4th OF so we don't lose him even if Rojas starts with the big club. We can lose Cave and plug in a Dahl or hopefully Rincones in the second half of the season. If we lose Pache and Rojas needs time in the minors then we suddenly have a hole besides Marsh in the OF.

[Austinfan]

And Pache gives you a pinch runner option if needed, which given our lineup, may have as much value as a pinch hitter.

[zambonir]

Not sure Pache is a particularly good runner. Better than Schwarber, sure. Probably still not even as good as Merrifield?

[BostonRoss]

I think if anything, many on this forum hold older players to higher standards, not younger players. It seems that some of us assume that Merrifield must be washed up because he was bad for two months at age 34. I am also inferring that some of this is due to older players being much better paid, due to MLB’s flawed compensation system.

There’s no question that older players are much more likely to decline, and we should assume some dropoff as they move through their 30s. But we’ve seen many young players tear it up when they first come up, never to repeat (Hall, Ruf, etc.).

Spring stats mean little, but the Phillies have other ways to judge whether Rojas is likely to hit now or not, and whether work at AAA now could significantly help. If they keep him on the big club, they feel he will work it out here while benefiting from his great defense. If they are wrong, they could always send him down later (though by then they would have lost Pache as a replacement).

[allentown]

That is just silly. There is something called a track record

So is the aging curve. Hitters can be figured out and exposed by pitchers at any age. Their bat can slow down just a tick as they age, leaving them vulnerable. Not saying this is happening to Schwarber. I think he likely has another good year in him, despite concerns I've had over his sub-.200 BA last season. ST stats don't mean much. I would give the same leeway to Rojas as to Schwarber. The Phillies have bet very heavily on the outer ranges of the aging curve. It is important, for both roster and payroll balance, to also bet equally heavily on guys like Rojas, who have already displayed a lot of talent.

[zambonir]

Merrifield has been bad for three years, not two months. OPS+ of 93, 82, and 94. Was good for about 1/3 of the 2022 and 50% of 2023, with the bad stretches resulting in the numbers above.

That's okay for a versatile, defensively plus bench player, but he's also been a minus player defensively for the last two seasons, and the Phillies don't seem equipped or interested in taking advantage of either his versatility or his best position.

If he does what he has allegedly been brought here to do (two starts a week) and does it decently he'll merely be a little overpaid. If he disproves the haters or is forced to play more due to injury, he'll be worth it. But there should not be any decisions being made based on the idea of him playing regularly in LF, nor should his salary or brand name dictate that.

Fortunately, I don't think there will be. If Rojas sticks (still likely) it's status quo and if he doesn't you still see Pache and LH OF more too.

I still think they might just keep Pache instead of Cave even with Rojas, at least for a while. There might be all of four times in three months where you need a LHB to hit for Rojas (they wouldn't hit for Bohm or Castellanos or JT) and that PH might get one hit. Rojas himself, or Sosa, or even Stubbs if they would use him, could do that too. And if Merrifield is actually good, he can hit RHP as well or better than Cave or Dahl (I don't know that he is, but that's the premise he was signed on).

[allentown]

Merrifield should be expected to be well along on the downward arc of a guy in his mid-30s. Both D and O stats are evidence. He also is a guy who has never had to demonstrate the ability to perform in a bench/PH role. He was worth a $3 million gamble, not $8 million -- an absurd contract. It's only a 1-year commitment, so the Phillies may luck out on this one, but it is not a plus bet. Not as bad as the bet on Castellanos for $100 million, but definitely betting against the odds. Expecting a rebound at age 35?

I may be equally absurd, but I'd sooner bet on Kingery resurecting his career, although I see precious little evidence that is possible.