Phillies sign RHP Taijuan Walker

[andyb]

Tailllon basically got the same deal- similar stats but better spin from Taillon. Who would you rather have for 4 years? A bit of a tossup but I feel a little better about Walker not becoming the dead contract first.

It is the higher ceiling (Taillon) versus more reliable track record (Walker) question. I probably would have gambled on Taillon but also understand picking Walker. We wanted one of them and maybe Taillon was not interested in Philly anyway.

It will be interesting to see if they extend Nola. Probably best to do it now if they want a little discount. This does give them more ways to not extend him if Walker pitches well this season (and 1 or 2 of the kids comes through). Locking up Ranger to a deal that goes 3-4 years may be more important for the mid term future, especially if they do want to get under the threshold at some point.

[andyb]

We have Walker for ages 29-33

It is age 30-33 for Walker, 31-34 for Taillon. He is only about 10 months younger than Taillon.

[zambonir]

It will be interesting to see if they extend Nola. Probably best to do it now if they want a little discount.

I just can't imagine he's giving a discount to forego the open market, especially in this climate (and also having already given a discount the first time). Their best shot would be to convince him that teams will be less spendy next year (plus he'll have a QO).

If they extend him and rework this year does his 2023 tax # go up based on the new deal or does new # kick in next year?

[bigegypt0417]

I would imagine it will all depend on where the team sits at the deadline...with all the long term contracts on this team I can't imagine they can afford another one...I could see them shopping him at the deadline to see if they can get more than they would for a QO.

Nola to me is the least reliable to age gracefully.

[David_Criss]

Was thinking perhaps they would re-up for a year or two on Thor, but like the idea of
Wheeler
Nola
Suarez
Walker
Falter

with Sanchez and Painter honing their skills at AAA.

[Aquapong]

Initially I’d say it’s an overpay. But we are getting a guy in his prime years and maybe he’ll really hit his stride like Wheeler did. Still I would have preferred Quintana’s deal with the Mets.

[Aquapong]

They better be using lotion on their skin or else they’ll get the hose again.

[Dirk41]

Yea, I have always liked Walker. He used to deal for the Mariners.

[allentown]

Nola to me is the least reliable to age gracefully.

I think he's among the most reliable, since he doesn't depend upon velocity and has been a consistent 200 IP guy. He may drop back to 180 or 170 IP as he ages, but his forte is location. IMHO not extending Nola would be a huge mistake. In 2022 he 'only' pitched 225 innings and 'only' racked up +6WAR, the second best of his career. He shows no signs of faltering.

to Zambonir: Wheeler is 3 years older. He has come close but has never had a 6 WAR season. Nola has a 9 WAR and this year's 6 WAR. Wheeler had +3.8 WAR this season.

[zambonir]

Well if the team falters than yeah, the deadline becomes like it did for Hamels, you either extend or trade. But otherwise they're just gonna have to let it play out and they could still sign him prior to other teams getting their shot. Phillies would obviously not have to worry about losing picks if they keep him. Comp pick won't be worth much (assuming they remain a good team and over the CBT).

I'm in favor of keeping of him but of course leery of going too many years. It's possible they could also decided Wheeler's a better long-term bet and try to lock up him early. The big question is really still how much Nola actually wants to stay. It could easily turn into a DeGrom or Freddie Freeman situation.

[Austinfan]

I think this FA market reinforces the idea that you draft pitchers and sign position players.
When teams are playing $40M for pitchers like Verlander and DeGrom, better start developing a steady supply of young arms.

[julio]

I think this FA market reinforces the idea that you draft pitchers and sign position players.
When teams are playing $40M for pitchers like Verlander and DeGrom, better start developing a steady supply of young arms.

Well, yeah, right.

And if all 30 organizations follow this "rule," then we wind up with minor league teams that have rosters entirely composed of pitchers.

Yes, reductio ad absurdem — but that's what you get when you try to reduce complexity to a platitude.

[allentown]

Yes, the pitching market has been insane. The plus side of focusing internally on pitching is that the Phillies have a far better record in draft and international when they focus on pitching.

For Julio: but what AF and I have said doesn't reduce to that reductio ad absurdem. Focusing on pitching in the draft means top picks to pitching, still plenty of other picks. Same for international. Spend more on pitching. We have emphasized position players there as we handed out bonuses -- it has been really lopsided. It's lopsided even if you exclude Ortiz and Encarnacion. Our top $ international signing, and the lions' share of the international budget almost always goes to position players. It's a severe tilt.

[Austinfan]

One of the crazy things about the organization is they have another wave of $10K bonus pitchers coming - how can you find so many solid prospects for nothing and whiff on almost every major LA signing?

[allentown]

After all this history the only thing which makes sense to me is that the scouts do a good job but some other person(s) ultimately makes the decision on the big $ signing and that person(s) is clueless.

[saycheese]

Overall I think this is a solid move for Walker. Bit of an overpay but really its not any of our money and the Phillies are not out there saying they are not adding more because of salary. In fact they are proving the contrary. I think 4yrs is the price of getting a solid starter and that is what I think Walker is. A 3/4 type. He has pitched in the NL east so there is a little bit of projectability there. Solid move. Some may have liked Quintana or Tailon better. But I trust in DD at this point that this was the guy they wanted.
I also like that by signing Walker it doesn't make them have to push Painter or Abel or McGary. They could go with Falter as the fifth starter as needed to start the season why Painter, Abel and McGary get a little more seasoning. I think Painter may be close real close, same with Abel same with McGary. When was the last time we had three premium pitching prospects this close?

[andyb]

Taijuan appears to be a Driveline analytics guy. Probably one of the reasons we got him instead of Taillon (and the links to Taillon a few days ago suggests they were determined to get one of them).

Fully Invested in Winning, the Phillies Add Taijuan Walker to the Mix

[allentown]

When was the last time we had three premium pitching prospects this close?

I'm going to say 'never'. Certainly don't remember such a time. I'm trying to think of a super prospect in AA/AAA with Sanford or Short or Fergie Jenkins, or Rick Wise, or Hamels. Were Roberts/Simmons/Konstanty?

[phillychuck]

We had the four aces in Piedmont at one time, but they really never turned out to be aces...

[Austinfan]

Yeah, you can't really count on a pitcher until they survive Reading, between the bandbox and that AA hitters can handle ML fastballs (it's "hitting the curve" that makes or breaks most minor league hitters), it's a good weeding ground. AAA is more about refinement of secondary pitches and command.