Phillies Sign OF Nick Castellanos 5 Yrs, 100 Million

[Philsmania]

We gonna rake! Probably will be a lot of 10-9 games.

I expect our starting rotation will be better than that. As I said, and others have mentioned, this Phillies team is constructed a lot like 1993.

[zambonir]

I do wish if they knew they were going to do this they would have got a defensive centerfielder (and that still could happen).

That would have been Kiermaier, and clearly they wanted to spend that kind of money (given his high AAV, never mind the trade cost) on other things.

I think this pretty much requires a trade of Hoskins in a year or two.

Hoskins will hit free agency after the 2023 season. Given these signings, he probably doesn't get a contract extension.

Well I think you're both probably right. I never thought he'd still be on the team for his final year of arbitration in the first place. Of course that scenario also often presumed Bohm would be the next 1B and he has to hit to be that. The DH might have changed things, but these signings probably change it back. Eventually gotta wonder about Harper too (positionally).

I agree about Correa. Shockingly cheap/short deal that neither Didi nor Stott should have stopped them from considering. Heck, he could play CF!

[saycheese]

I get the Kiermaier move not happening. I think with the new AAV his contract would have cost almost 15 million per year. I personally would have brought back Roman Quinn over Hererra. I do think they can find a defensive centerfielder. I was thinking a little bit about Mullins in Baltimore. Yes he is going to cost a ton to get but at this point it may make sense. Bohm and probably Painter plus either Ohoppe or Marchan might be enticing then again it may not be. You can put Didi at 3rd base and Stott at short with Mullins in center and it would not be a great defensive team but certainly better than what it is today. Plus it might be even a better lineup with Mullins in it. I have no idea if Mullins if available just thinking outside of the box.

[zambonir]

Yeah it sounds like the Orioles are hanging onto Mullins. He's not even in arbitration yet, free agent in 2026. Even the cheapest tankiest team probably doesn't want to do that.

Quinn might have at least been worth the tender, but he's just not that good, nor better than Herrera once he misses his usual amount of games.

I do think with all this activity, they shouldn't necessarily rest on their laurels. But it's also possible Laureano, Mullins, and who knows who else come available at the deadline.

[allentown]

I wouldn't do that. You can't buy a whole team. It's intermediate-term suicide. Beyond that, one of Rojas and Muzziotti likely available next season to give plus CF defense. Kingery perhaps back and ready this year. We have our CF rotation to start the season. Quinn over Herrera would have been a bad gamble. Quinn has never stayed healthy and even when he was healthy he couldn't hit, as in REALLY couldn't hit: .595 OPS in 2021, .576 in 2020, .668 in 2019 all in Philly. Roman Quinn was always a dream for Phillies phans and management, but never really reality. On the last 3 seasons, his total DWAR is 0.0, so he's also not a super whiz on defense.

If we are desperate for CF D, bring up whichever of Muzziotti or Rojas we've decided isn't going to make it as an MLB regular and keep developing the other in the minors. That give Muzziotti some MLB service time and $.

Actually, I think good chance Kingery is back and ready to play well by mid-season after tuning up hitting stroke in minors and fully recovering from injury.

[zambonir]

Actually, I think good chance Kingery is back and ready to play well by mid-season after tuning up hitting stroke in minors and fully recovering from injury.

I hope so, but is he really a plus CF? Was he ever really a plus SS? Even at 2B there were questions of living up to his minor league performance, though that was also the combination of his miserable 2020 and the fact that he never got to play there.

[allentown]

Agreed, he never was capable of playing SS, which is why he was placed at 2B in the minors. Given his minor league hitting and draft position, if the Phillies thought he could be anything approaching an adequate SS, he would have been a SS in the minors until the development staff felt further defensive development was hopeless. He was a good 2B, but fell victim to the Phillies analytics decision that defense really didn't matter and almost anyone can play just about anywhere. It was said to be a key to the Dodgers' success. I think he can be an okay CF, perhaps better. Of course Odubel is already an okay CF.

[bkox]

Let Kingery go back to second base.. If he can be adequate offensively and focus on one position.. then he and Stott can be the 2023 DP combo and we can save significant money to use elsewhere with Didi coming off the books and not picking up Segura's option.

With Odubel, Hasely, Moniak, Muzziotti, Vierling and the other guy Im forgetting.. we have enough CFers to fill in or coming up the pipeline that we can just let Kingery focus on what made him standout in the minors

[allentown]

Rojas

[EDmuch]

We now have prospects who could be MLB players in our pipeline. Let's not start trading them away. DD has done a good job creating a murder's row lineup to get us thru the next year or tow. before teh prospects start arriving.

[zambonir]

Oh, I think Dombrowski will be trading aggressively from what is now a little bit of depth, whether it's soon or in July or heading into '23. Even with the defensive shortcomings and the DH they are not really going to need a corner OF or 1B for several years (after which he might not even be here). CF you have to let play out, though wouldn't it have been nice if they had traded one of Moniak or Haseley when they were still prospects? (Something they actually succeeded in doing with Sixto and Howard.)

If they need a starter to replace Eflin (and eventually Nola) would you rather trade Hoskins or prospects?

[andyb]

Fangraphs understands the move. Likes it generally even if a slight overpay.

For Outfielder-Starved Phillies, Castellanos a Necessary Overpay

[Austinfan]

Slight overpay? About 30-50% using their model.

[andyb]

It is very possible that their model undervalues WAR at a bit less than $8 million per win. As the previous article noted, the value of WAR is probably trending higher and was $9.5 million in 2020 and had been $8.5 million before the lockout. With the increase in the CBT threshold we'll probably see $10 million in the future which would make the Castellanos contract only a slight overpay if he spends most of his time at DH (with 1B another alternative where he may not be too bad).

[phillychuck]

I think Castellanos will probably play a lot of LF this year; if I'm not mistaken most metrics show he's pretty much a better LF than Schwarber, although the better fielder doesn't always get the "right" amount of playing time due to political/personality issues on the team.

The contract doesn't "feel" like much of an overpay to me. Depends on if Nick can actually continue to produce at close to his 2021 level going forward a few years.

[andyb]

2021 was a very good offensive year for Castellanos (a bit of a positive outlier) so the projections probably work down from his average offense rather than his peak. He also will play LF which is a bit easier than RF.

The defensive metrics actually have Schwarber as better (well really slightly less worse) than Castellanos in the OF. Schwarber was a disaster at 1B of course, though Boston put him there with zero professional (major or minor) experience. The plan had been for a short rehab outing to learn it, but Boston needed him in the lineup immediately. I expect to see a good deal of Schwarber at 1B in Spring Training and him to play there more as the season progresses. Bohm and Realmuto might get the early non-Hoskins appearances while Schwarber learns the position. Schwarber does have a good arm (former catcher) that is an asset in the OF.

[RTaylor]

I think the signing shows that Dave Dombrowski comes into the organization with the kind of gravitas and influence Pat Gillick had, and that’s exciting—at least a sign that the organization is really trying to win. It’s a screwy way to go about roster construction, but it will be fun to watch.

[allentown]

I think the signing shows that Dave Dombrowski comes into the organization with the kind of gravitas and influence Pat Gillick had, and that’s exciting

This is a serious indictment of ownership. It can work if they hire and listen to successful grey-hairs, who are able to implement the best, proven new thinking. But... if they only listen to the grey-hairs, and it appears that is the case, then they err in hiring inexperienced, younger GMs like Wade and RAJ. Apart from their lack of ability to sell their ideas to owners (and is that owner myopia or insufficient GM communication and persuasion skill?) it seems that Wade and RAJ may have been our best GMs of the past several decades, but with different skills. Wade built the organization and farm which produced the young stars who gave us 2008. RAJ built a 100-win team, working within a rigid budget, but couldn't convince the owners to go over budget for one season, in order to head the rotation with the three aces: Lee, Halladay, and Hamels. How different would Phillies' history be if the owners had accepted the obvious wisdom of that sales pitch from RAJ.

DD seems to be rebuilding the scouting and development staff to create a stronger minor league operation. The international area has strangely been ignored. If he succeeds in this, he will right Phillies culture.

Still, interesting to consider how very well the Phillies did these things in the runup to 2008.

Gillick was bad for the farm. RAJ was no better.

[zambonir]

Gillick was bad for the farm. RAJ was no better.

But, so, alas was Klentak (helped greatly by RAJ and Gillick's hires). All of that is really on MacPhail though (and Middleton doesn't get a pass).

I wonder who would be running the team right now if there had not been a pandemic and the prospects for Nashville's expansion team had seemed more promising.

Regarding Schwarber, I'm sure he's at peace with being a DH - some other players might be annoyed to get signed to play LF and then moved two days later. But Castellanos is also a godawful RF who's only played 20 career games in LF (though he used to stand on that side of the field when he was a bad 3B).

Regarding dollars per WAR, nobody actually pays that. Sometimes it's more, sometimes it's less. Would be nice to have a system that wasn't artificially depressed on the one hand and inflated by equally artificial market forces on the other, but so it is.

Plus you're not just paying for production, you are paying for entertainment and ticket sales. The Phillies were a pretty unappealing product - no goodwill left from the Bryce signing between the pandemic and the lack of playoffs - and now, not so much because these two players are STARS but simply because Middleton finally lived up to the expectation Jimmy Rollins set for him 10 years ago ("Steinbrenner South"), there's bound to be a little more excitement. If it works.

Of course, the Braves and Mets also forced the Phillies' hand. Last year it looked like they were competing to win a weak division, and in fact they were, but that didn't matter after the deadline and in the playoffs. Add in Cohen's checkbook and having a Top 5 payroll isn't enough anymore.

[EDmuch]

The curse was the reign of Sleepy and Skippy. Literally everything they did was wrong. It seems to me what DD is doing is restoring MIddleton's trust in the on field part of the franchise management . Of course MIddleton is completely responsible for Sleepy and Skippy. He put them in charge.