Phillies sign Jake Arrieta to a 3-year $75 million deal

[allentown]

It's a reasonable deal financially, trading $/year for fewer years, which is exactly what the Phillies should have wanted. Let's hope Arrieta makes more $ when the Cy Young bump kicks in (not holding my breath on that one).

[Austinfan]

This is a reasonable deal, probably an overpay, but no money after 2020, which is the key, like you've all been screaming, they have plenty of money to spend the next three years.
We're not going to see 2014-15 Arrieta, hopefully we'll see 2016-17 Arrieta (6 WAR or so).
If they get 8 WAR out of him it's a slight overpay, I'd bet more on 6 and just eating the 2020 salary.
But it's not my money, so c'est la vie.

Now they should clear 40 man roster space by trading someone for LA money.

[allentown]

I don't think they can trade for LA money yet.

[David_Criss]

I like it. Let the speculation begin on who gets dropped from the 40-man.

[Lucky_Beagle]

One of the downfalls from being "healthy" as a team as there isn't any 60 day DL guys available, right?

[zambonir]

I like it. Let the speculation begin on who gets dropped from the 40-man.

The Good Phight noticed that Pinto was already off of it,though they also speculated that it could just be an error from him being moved to minor league camp.

http://m.mlb.com/phi/roster/40-man/

[julio]

One of the downfalls from being "healthy" as a team as there isn't any 60 day DL guys available, right?

Well, Yacksel Rios has a "mild sprain" of his ankle, incurred on Thursday. As far as I know, that's the most serious condition of any player currently on the 40-man roster. I don't imagine the organization would want to park Rios on the 60-day DL - that would sideline him through about Memorial Day, which would not be good for his continued development/progress.

It could get interesting, unless they have some trade in the works. Zac Curtis, Hoby Milner are possible outright candidates - as are Cameron Rupp and Tommy Joseph. After that, you're talking young prospects. There are no Kevin Jordans left on this roster.

[zambonir]

I still can't imagine them outrighting Rupp, even if, as the season wears on, it's likely they'd have room to add a third catcher from the minors if and when he's needed.

I know Alvarez is a prospect too but what are the odds that both he and Valentin are on the 40 a year from now?

Don't forget Kingery eventually has to be added to the 40 too.

[gmwannabe]

i guess it is exciting that the phils signed another high priced free agent. but from what i have read all along, a lot of the posters have said his velocity has had a pretty significant drop. are the phils getting a $75 million dollar eickhoff with a little better, "other stuff"?
gm

[julio]

i guess it is exciting that the phils signed another high priced free agent. but from what i have read all along, a lot of the posters have said his velocity has had a pretty significant drop. are the phils getting a $75 million dollar eickhoff with a little better, "other stuff"?

Well, this is possible. Not evident; not certain; I would guess not probable. But possible.

It's also possible that Aaron Nola will blow out his elbow on April 15th, and that Rhys Hoskins will regress to roughly the same hitter as Tommy Joseph. Etc.

[Austinfan]

Actually, if Arrieta is Eickhoff circa 2016, that would be just fine, 3.5 WAR for your #2 starter is a solid performance.
He finished strong, like Grienke, he adjusted to the drop in velocity.
But it raises questions of long-term performance and durability.
So Klentak was right to hold out for three years.

This is going to become the norm for over 30 pitchers, as Santana noted when he signed his one year deal with the Yankees, free agents are no longer being paid for past performance but what teams think they'll get in the future.

[saycheese]

I am pretty happy they did something. It has been clear that this team lacked starting pitching, they still do, but even if Arrieta is not the Arrieta of old and he is just a solid number 3 type pitcher I like it. Yes his velo is down some but we will see if was a minor injury that he pitched through last year that affected that or is it age pretty quickly. Its a risk but not a major one in my book. Its mostly money although losing the 3rd round pick hurts, however we are pretty stacked in the minors right now so hopefully this one won't hurt too much.

[julio]

losing the 3rd round pick hurts

The Phililes' last 20 years of 3rd round picks:

2017 - Connor Seabold
2016 - Cole Stobbe
2015 - Lucas Williams
2014 - Aaron Brown
2013 - Cord Sandberg
2012 - Zach Green
2011 - Adam Morgan
2010 - Cameron Rupp
2009 - Kyrell Hudson
2008 - Vance Worley
2007 - Brandon Workman
2006 - Jason Donald
2005 - Matt Maloney
2004 - J.A. Happ
2003 - Tim Moss
2002 - Kiel Fisher
2001 - (no pick)
2000 - Keith Bucktrot
1999 - Russ Jacobson
1998 - Jorge Padilla

Some of these guys became major-leaguers. There isn't a star in the bunch. If this is what we should expect from a 3rd round pick, I don't know that giving it up for Arrieta really "hurts" very much.

[David_Criss]

Forgive me if I missed it, but is there a no trade in this deal? That in and of itself could be very valuable, especially given the incentives for Arrieta to perform well written into the deal.

[julio]

Forgive me if I missed it, but is there a no trade in this deal?

None reported. Per the CBA, they can't trade him without his consent prior to June 16th, but unless there's something unreported, that's the only restriction.

[allentown]

even if Arrieta is not the Arrieta of old and he is just a solid number 3 type pitcher I like it

I agree. Nola is a solid #2, who might stretch to a #1, but prior to this deal we lacked a #3. I don't think we ever see the Arrieta of 2014-2015, but 2016-2017 Arrieta was fine. Only real knock on him is that last year's HR rate was high, although he did improve his K- and BB-rates over 2016. Any pitcher is a gamble at any time, but this seems a worthy gamble at a time that money means nothing to us and we haven't exactly been lighting up the draft, especially with third rounders.

[David_Criss]

Alex Cobb is still available....just saying.

[zambonir]

The other thing about him is he's either going to eat innings (he had a drop last year but still would have led the Phillies, by all of 1/3 of an inning) or the short outing philosophy might make him more effective.

[andyb]

Arrieta also missed time in September last year because of a hamstring injury. He missed 2 starts and had at least 1 shortened start. If he has those he would have been in the 180-185 inning range, a small drop from the last season but really the new normal for pitchers these days as many teams are shortening outings the 3rd time through the lineup (including the Cubs).

Clearly going almost 250 innings in 2015 was a bit much. But 2016 was 219 innings with the postseason and 2017 was 179 with the postseason and missing a few starts. Yes there is a decline, but it is not really an alarming decline. Our top 3 from last year were (168, 133, and 128 innings). Getting 180 IP from Arrieta in this era of shorter starts would be a huge improvement.

[Les229]

I never have been a fan of Arrietta. He has been hurt a good bit and he always seemed iffy to me.That being said, I think this signing is a good thing. I am hoping that it it shows that the brain trust are beginning to think in terms of being competitive.

I doubt that Lynn was ever really available to them as anything but a last resort. He is trying to get to a contender so that he can demand the big contact next year. I personally believe that Arieta will either be the biggest plus in years both as a pitching leader and a stabilizing factor, or the biggest disaster of the year. Stay tuned.