Phillies Series Performance Tracker

[zambonir]

So both the 1 seed and the 6 could come down to the final weekend, unless SF or the Mets wrap up the latter. That is a tough last road series for the Brewers even if their trip and time zone change is a less than ours to LA.

We certainly can't complain about the last two opponents. Twins might have a little juice but they're just decimated.

[zambonir]

Cards blew leads of 6-2 (8th) and 7-4 (9th), took an 8-7 lead in the top of the 10th and lost 9-8.

[VoteForKalas]

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN
2-2 WSH
3-0 SEA
2-1 WSH
0-3 NYM
3-1 ATL

September 2025
2-1 MIL
2-1 MIA
4-0 NYM
2-1 KC

Actual record: 89-61
Expected winning % record (9/15/25): 88-62
728 RS & 603 RA (+125)

Upcoming in September
@LAD (3)
@AZ ((3)
MIA (3)
MN (3)

MIL Remaining Games
LAA (3)
@STL (3)
@SDP (3)
CIN (3)

[VoteForKalas]

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN
2-2 WSH
3-0 SEA
2-1 WSH
0-3 NYM
3-1 ATL

September 2025
2-1 MIL
2-1 MIA
4-0 NYM
2-1 KC
2-1 LAD

Actual record: 91-62
Expected winning % record (9/19/25): 89-64
743 RS & 619 RA (+124)

Upcoming in September
@AZ ((3)
MIA (3)
MN (3)

MIL Remaining Games
@STL (3)
@SDP (3)
CIN (3)

Since the beginning of August, Phillies have only lost 2 series (CIN and NYM). #1 seed in the NL may be unrealistic at this point, but one never knows what will happen. Go Phillies!

[zambonir]

Maybe more unlikely than unrealistic but probably not the end of the world. They neither have to chase it hard nor give up on it. The injured guys will come back when they are ready but not before, and the pitchers will make all their normal turns after the bye is locked up because they're going to need the work/to stay on sked. It will just be for fewer innings.

By the time Trea gets a few games it will be for the activity not becaue they are trying to win those Twins games at all costs. Unless the Brewers open the door again.

One article mentioned the batting title might affect how many ABs Trea gets but it didn't say whether that would lead to more or less.

[andyb]

5 up on the Dodgers for the 2 seed. 3 down from the Brewers for the 1 seed. I guess we'll see after the weekend how seriously they will compete for the 1 seed. It would be good to lock down the 2 seed relatively early to have options next week. With the tandem start they seem to be planning for the 2 seed already.

[Philsmania]

5 up on the Dodgers for the 2 seed. 3 down from the Brewers for the 1 seed. I guess we'll see after the weekend how seriously they will compete for the 1 seed. It would be good to lock down the 2 seed relatively early to have options next week. With the tandem start they seem to be planning for the 2 seed already.

With tiebreakers, we are effectively six up on the Dodgers and four behind the Brewers. Brewers' magic number to clinch homefield advantage is six, our magic number to clinch a bye is four.

[zambonir]

Yeah four seems like a bigger number, and six almost impossible to screw up (for Phillies over LA). Brewers just went 15-15 over 30 but have won three straight.

With Sanchez lined up to start both Tues and Sunday both could be shorter outings. Ranger and Luzardo's last starts too. Nola and the Walkers you probably want to test, both for evaluation sake and because they won't be be getting many (or any) NLDS innings.

Murphy ranks Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers as toughest opponents, the Cubs due to their lefty pitchers, the Brewers due to their ability to hit ours.

Who should the Phillies fear this postseason? Let’s rank the NL heavyweights. |...

[VoteForKalas]

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN
2-2 WSH
3-0 SEA
2-1 WSH
0-3 NYM
3-1 ATL

September 2025
2-1 MIL
2-1 MIA
4-0 NYM
2-1 KC
2-1 LAD
1-2 AZ

Actual record: 92-64
Expected winning % record (9/23/25): 90-66
756 RS & 634 RA (+122)

Upcoming in September
MIA (3)
MN (3)

MIL Remaining Games
@SDP (2)
CIN (3)

[zambonir]

Only two left for MIL with Pads. They lost last night. We're 2 1/2 out but tiebreaker still looms large, and AZ series was a squandered chance.

[VoteForKalas]

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN
2-2 WSH
3-0 SEA
2-1 WSH
0-3 NYM
3-1 ATL

September 2025
2-1 MIL
2-1 MIA
4-0 NYM
2-1 KC
2-1 LAD
1-2 AZ
2-1 MIA
2-1 MN

Final Actual record: 96-66
Final Expected winning % record (9/29/25): 94-68
778 RS & 648 RA (+130)

In August & September, this team really kicked it into a higher gear and played well. We'll see how the playoffs go, but we have every chance to win.

[zambonir]

They have now won more games every year since 2021 (2020 was a step back from finishing .500 in 2019). But of course the October trend has still been in the other direction, except without the highest possible peak first.

For the second year in a row I thought it would be fun, and not technically betting against them, to put a little money on them winning between 89 and 94 games (which also pays off better than a straight O/U), and I was thwarted by their excellence (and Pythagorean luck) again!

[EastFallowfield]

So you were rooting hard for the Twins coming into the last series

[zambonir]

Ha definitely wasn't paying it much mind. Figured there was no way would lose two, let alone three. Still just too bad they didn't win Saturday.

The reality is I wasn't confident enough either season to take the over (which I think was 91 this year) and would just never take the under. Not sure any of us expected them to win more games than last year. But then we also didn't expect the Mets to ultimately be a non-factor.

Amazing to think they were 0-6 on the road against Pirates and A's, and 0-3 against Houston. Two different teams really, though the second-half team lost Wheeler.

[VoteForKalas]

I definitely did not think they would win more games this season than 2024. I thought the pen and offense were both weaker coming into this season, but they found a way.

Besides Wheeler, which is a big caveat, we got pretty lucky with health again with so many older players.

[zambonir]

You almost wouldn't know that our biggest injury was actually Nola!