per Passan and Morosi
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Nov '23- 28
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Below $25 million on the AAV is good too. One always figured the Phillies strategy would be to go a little longer to save some tax money while also not killing current roster building designs.
Good move. Now let's get a little more creative in adding an outfield bat.
Surprisingly low price this early in FA, seems like this deal could have happened before FA, but that is unimportant. 25 WAR in 7 years seems likely without too much trouble.
Will this guy retire as the 2nd best pitcher in team history, passing Robin Roberts? Too be seen
A little long but affordable, not much of a raise over his current AV, the out years may bite them, but if they finally build a top 5 farm system it won't matter - basically like Turner, buying a few years to build up the farm system where they'll have cheap young players to offset a couple bad legacy contracts. Of course, if they don't build up the farm system, the end of the decade will be a nightmare.
Another positive is the insurance Nola provides in the event that Wheeler leaves after next year. While Wheeler has been great, his realistic time window of sustained performance is only 2-3 years and he may command a longer deal elsewhere. There was a potential scenario where 1) Nola walks, 2) Wheeler walks, and 3) Phillies are left without a legit #1 or 2 a year from now. At a minimum, they will have a #2 - and hopefully more.
With any luck, Abel in mid-2024 and Painter in mid-2025.
But they need one more young starting pitcher to step up the next two years to give them enough depth going forward.
It was a good move and one they had to make IMO to stay competitive and win.
Now go get a good LF bat, another decent starter and 1-2 more relievers.
Sidebar: not sure if it was mentioned in another thread, but glad to see Matt Gelb sharing the byline (with Rosenthal) in The Athletic for this story. After a long absence, was worried he had departed and left The Athletic with a giant Phillies hole.
I think they likely had a contract framework settled as part of the earlier negotiations and just had to finally agree on some details.
I do not think Nola is even top 5 if you consider Hamels, Schilling, Alexander, Bunning, Halladay, Roberts and Carlton.
Good signing at a very fair price. Any pitcher is a risk, but this is a plus signing of a quality pitcher whom they understand well -- should be no surprises.
Well, he has certainly already passed Halladay, who had only a couple good years (agreed very good). In 7 more years he will have long passed Schilling, Hamels , etc.i suspect.
He will have a very long Phillies career (16 years) if he stays for all 7 years and is moderately healthy. I would think he would be #2 on the list by then, but my question really was would he pass these guys. I think Robert’s is #2, but I honestly think 16 good years puts him past everyone but Carlton. Certainly Halladay, Hamels and Bunning are not anywhere near that much contribution.
Halladay only had 2 good seasons with the Phils. And Nola's 2018 season is pretty close to either of those. Nola already ahead of him.
In terms of fWAR with the Phillies. Nola is 6th all time for pitchers.
Carlton: 75
Roberts: 62.6
Alexander: 50.8
Hamels: 40.5
Schilling: 38.6
Nola: 33.9
Barring injury, Nola will pass Schilling and Hamels by the end of 2025. He should also be 2nd in Ks all time behind only Carlton
If he averages just 150 innings in those 7 years. he will finish 4th all time for the Phillies in that and should finish 3rd in games started. And he already has the highest k/9 of any Phillies starter ever.
This might be an overly optimistic projection of year six and seven by which point he could be cooked or on another team.
Not really. He only needs 16.9 WAR to pass Alexander. Even in 2023, with all his struggles, he got 3.9 war. He just has to average 3.4 WAR over 5 years to get there.
He only needs 115 IP per season for 5 seasons to become only the 5th phillie to reach 2K. He would need 166 IP per season for 5 seasons to pass Short for 4th all time. The one he probably wont get is Alexander. He would need 155 IP per season for all 7 seasons for that one.
And he only needs 67 games started to get 3rd all time. If he doesnt do that, then the contract will be an albatross.
I didnt even mention wins. just 43 wins gets him to 4th all time
A bit more...
There is no opt-out and no team option in the deal https://t.co/hMWzD7TEMV
— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) November 19, 2023
Can confirm @JonHeyman ’s report that Nola turned down better deals (more money) to stay in Philadelphia.
— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) November 19, 2023
Yeah it sounds like Nola really wanted to just get it done and Braves were only other team he seriously considered. Think they actually outbid the Phillies on total money and AAV? They would have had to give up the QO comps too.
Anyway, some doubted Nola's attachment to this region. That's over, and so is any lingering sense (which was already long gone I'd say) of those Rolen/Schilling years when players wanted out.