Phillies Prospect Scouting Reports 2018

Austinfan 2018-09-21 02:03:11 UTC #81

My point is that the rankings, outside of maybe the top 20, who are the players which are obviously going to make it (since most are in AA and AAA and tearing it up), are not that informative. So I really don't care, even the top 20, well, remember D Brown?

Now I think next year is a key year for Haseley, while I think 2020 is the key season for Moniak, that is, they're reaching the point where it's time to produce or the odds of being a solid starter start declining rapidly - it's not so much age as career progression, different paths for HS and college. I'll worry about Bohm if he doesn't get to Clearwater next year and at least show progress. Ortiz is one level at a time until the light goes on (and when that happens, players can fly up the system, like SD did).

zambonir 2018-09-21 02:20:17 UTC #82

Personally when I don't care about a topic I mute the thread.

bigegypt0417 2018-09-21 13:30:03 UTC #83

oh boy...I see some are already adding Alec Bohm to the list of those who aren't performing well...lol

Haseley is on the list because...he isn't in the top 100 prospects? Hits over 300 over two levels and progressed over the year but he didn't make the top 100 soooo.

Phillies Phandom is weird.

andyb 2018-09-21 13:34:45 UTC #84

Are you saying that Bohm had a good debut? One that would have been expected of such a high pick. I am not calling him a failure by any stretch of the imagination. And he actually might be a top 100 pick simply because of where he was drafted and he does have legitimate power. He is probably our 3rd best prospect now after Sanchez and Medina.

But he underperformed in his debut pretty clearly. Why one can't point that out in the same sentence where they talk about his good attributes of a prospect is a bit of a mystery. As a group our last 4 number ones have underwhelmed especially relative to their draft position. Some are better prospects than others. None have exceeded expectations which is kind of what one hopes for over time (at least 1 or 2 of them to do well like Nola did).

Austinfan 2018-09-21 13:45:48 UTC #85

Because how a college kid performs right out of college is so variable that I'm not sure it has much predictive value.

How Bohm performs next year matters, because the first full season a college kid has a chance to go through instructs, get comfortable with wood bats (or pitching to wood bats), for pitchers work in a 5 day routine instead of Friday night pitching and long pitch counts, etc.

Same way rookie league performance only really matters when it's bad, because they get so much coaching in the FIL and spring training that they often make huge jumps (or don't) between GCL and Lakewood.

One reason we should be patient is we simply don't have a lot of information on many of these players until they play a full season or two and you can see if they're progressing. Anyone have Llovera on their radar a year ago?

bigegypt0417 2018-09-21 13:48:19 UTC #86

You have a narrative to sell. So you're going to sell it.

The fact that you added Haseley not because of performance but he didn't make a top 100 list is just the cherry on the sundae.

nycphils 2018-09-21 15:00:13 UTC #87

I don’t agree. Fact is that Haseley’s performance - while not terrible because of his batting average - was not impressive because he demonstrated only mediocre plate discipline (35 BB in 500+ ABs) and mediocre power (.424 SLG).

Mediocre performance that pegs him as a 4th OF is why he SHOULD be listed as underperforming.

bigegypt0417 2018-09-21 15:10:26 UTC #88

Then he moved to an advanced level and his numbers got better...

316/403/478

He walked 16 times and struck out 19 times.

If you want to look at him over his last 270 at bats the numbers are still very good.

322/386/458 with a combined OPS of 843 across two levels.

over that time he walked 24 times and K'ed 39.

andyb 2018-09-21 15:19:25 UTC #89

Haseley's strengths as a prospect are his ability to hit for average coupled with across the board average tools (speed, defense, power). This is not to fit a narrative. It is to try to assess what he is. Right now he is looking like a regular starter, but not one who will be consistently above average. To quote the Gelb piece:

"He’s on the big-league radar for some point in 2019, although he’s a tough profile for a corner outfield spot. Haseley is an average runner and an average defender with lingering questions about his power potential."

He is the best of the 4 recent number one picks in performance relative to draft pick. But he is still only about average in terms of what one would expect from a number 8 overall choice. He is not making top 100 lists because his ceiling looks to be modest. Analyzing how good he is by batting average (or power in Reading) is a pretty superficial analysis. A high average is his best skill. I actually think that fits our roster needs well. But in terms of how good he actually is as a prospect, I also admit that he is not a top 100-level pick. His skills fit what we might need which is good. But that alone does not make him an above average regular. It just might make him a better OF than Hoskins or Nick Williams.

allentown 2018-09-21 16:30:51 UTC #90

While it is comforting when first rounders get off to a good start in their initial partial season, I keep reminding myself that tis initial performance isn't a good predictor of career success or failure. What troubled me from the posted article had nothing to do with Bohm's performance at bat. I was concerned by the scouting report that his ability to stay at 3B is regarded as iffy. The Phillies need for him to be able to play 3B. We are loaded with DH/1B/LF types. Hopefully Bohm puts in the hard work over time to keep his body in shape for 3B and to improve his defensive skills. His collegiate career suggests that he has the ethic to put in the necessary work. A collegian is much more a known quantity than a H.S. guy like LGJ. Our scouts are much less likely to misread the character and work ethic issues.

That said, I would reply to BigEgypt: The Phillies organization, major league players, and minor leaguers all have flaws. I think it's fine to talk about those flaws.

bigegypt0417 2018-09-21 16:59:37 UTC #91

Are we talking about flaws or are we trying to extend the narrative of "4 consecutive" first round draft choices?

I think most people are aware of the issue with Haseley as a power hitter but are we really attempting to keep his as part of the tired talking point?

The answer is actually no....he isn't part of that...he was drafted with the billing of a hit tool and the chance to develop more of a power tool...what is he showing? Oh yeah, a hit tool and some signs of possible being a 15ish HR a season guy. The simple fact is power seems to always be the last tool to develop...

andyb 2018-09-21 17:20:37 UTC #92

But by emphasizing "consecutive" in my post about the 4 recent number one draft picks you are changing the topic. I posted that Haseley is the only one of the 4 that is performing at the expectations of the draft slot. The other 3 are not. I never said each pick was a disappointment. But collectively as a group they are.

The narrative being forced is actually your perception that some Phillies comments are always negative. I try to be balanced. I think saying our last 4 number ones as a group are underperforming is a balanced comment. If Haseley were overperforming (i.e. doing what Benintendi did and being in the majors already) then the cumulative group would be decent. But since Haseley is only performing as expected, the group as a whole is underperformed. That is very different than saying each consecutive pick has underperformed.

bigegypt0417 2018-09-21 17:27:31 UTC #93

Stepping back it is hard to argue that the Phillies have done pretty well with their last 4 number one picks. Still early, but Randolph and Moniak and Bohm have all performed below what one would expect from their draft slot. Haseley is about what one would expect, though of course it would have been nice if a number 8 overall pick had developed into a top 100 pick. One can say the group is disappointing so far in the same breath as saying they are all prospects to some degree. Like it or not, expectations are higher with top 10 picks.

His tools are almost exactly what was said when he was drafted...You also have Bohm in the conversation with a sample size nowhere near enough.

andyb 2018-09-21 17:31:45 UTC #94

We are not allowed to note that Bohm did not have a good debut? I hope he gets beyond it and is great, but is it not worth noting that he did not play well? That is not concluding he is not a good prospect. I think he should be ranked in the top 100 and is our 3rd best prospect. But he did not play well this summer.

flyers19rw 2018-09-21 17:44:11 UTC #95

Are we sure that we even know what Bohm is? He looked like he belonged in Williamsport when he was sent there out of Clearwater. Then he was hit in the knee and sat down for a month or so. When he came back, he was not in good form but why was that? Poor ability of being rusty? We'll find out in spring. However his showing in Clearwater and in summer leagues of the past indicate that what we saw in Williamsport was an outlier. Just all of the scouts agree that he can hit and with power.

andyb 2018-09-21 17:51:52 UTC #96

We don't know what he is. Completely agree with that. The one worrying side is the guy with the best power in the draft did not hit a home run in 158 plate appearances. Some of that was rehab. Some was GCL though where he should dominate.

Injuries are clearly an explanation. Everything is also small sample. His performance this summer should probably constitute only 5% of any assessment about him. The performance did happen though and should not be ignored. The number 3 pick in the draft, especially one from a good college program, also has expectations like it or not.

I hate the posts here that imply there is any conclusion here. Bohm is a good prospect. We just got a little more data on him this summer and it was not all positive. We make mistakes when we ignore that data. That data probably drops him from the 30-50 range on prospect lists to the 60-90 range. He still belongs, but there are other prospects out there that have done more.

I think Bohm will hit. My biggest question has always been defense and whether he will stick at 3B. The scouting reports are pretty mixed on that. Hopefully he can because his path to being a really valuable player probably requires him to say at third base.

nycphils 2018-10-03 01:36:12 UTC #97

BA on Howard:

...when he's on, he dominates. He flashes a mid-90s fastball he can locate to all four quadrants of the strike zone and he carries that velocity deep in games. He sat 94-96 mph in the final inning of his no-hitter. His 86-87 mph power slider gives him a plus secondary, while his changeup and curveball both are average at times.

On Will Stewart:

...an 89-93 mph fastball and a plus changeup. Stewart is well-built, strong and athletic and he fills the strike zone with plus control.
Stewart is able to work his fastball both arm-side and glove-side, and he's comfortable throwing his changeup to lefties as well as righthanded hitters. His low-80s slider has made strides. Right now one out of every five or so will be an average pitch. If he can up that ratio, he has the makings of a No. 4 starter.

On J. Ortiz:

...disappointed with a less-advanced approach than expected. He still has outstanding raw power, but he had a very pull-heavy approach this year that left him vulnerable to pitchers with a plan. There were also concerns from scouts that his athleticism is going away. Ortiz has always been a big guy, but he's always been quite nimble for his size. Scouts this year said he showed signs he's slowing down.

BA Chat tidbits:

Sixto:

I honestly believe (and this is just me [Josh Naylor] talking) that if he had been healthy and the Phillies hadn't cratered down the stretch, Sixto would have been in Philly this year, at the very least in a bullpen role. There were at least two scouts who I spoke with who said he was the best pitcher they saw all year, at any level. He's that good.

Medina:

There's a little more variance in how evaluators see him, however. The highest I got on him was a mid-rotation starter with two above-average offspeed pitches.

Pujols:

Power has always been his calling card, and this year he added some more plate discipline and a willingness to work deeper counts. He's certainly raised his prospect stock quite a bit.

nycphils 2018-10-19 03:18:24 UTC #98

Pieces with scouting takes on a variety of guys:

Outfield

Infield

fish 2018-10-19 17:13:27 UTC #99

Awesome comment from the scout on Gamboa- “he was the biggest dog I saw this year”.

andyb 2018-10-19 17:22:53 UTC #100

A little disappointed the scout had Haseley as more of a fit for left field because of his arm. Was just assuming the former college pitcher had at least a right field arm.