Phillies Prospect Lists

[zambonir]

I wonder where Sal and his guys fit in with this. Are they nostalgia retentions?

Or some combination of still having leverage with influential people (whether that's Veladia or Gillick or even Middleton) while also making a statement that it is maybe not his fault (i.e. he was not given the $ or infrastructure to succeed).

I would think international scouting is also just a lot more loose - you don't have to worry so much about matching your development staff because at those ages, in those systems, they are still just blocks of wood, neither round nor square, and you're really just throwing things against the wall with most of the signings anyway. It's also possible that with international both BPA and best fit consistently take a back seat to politics/signability, at least for the bigger guys.

I just hope this regime does work out, which would also mean most of these guys outlasting Dombrowski (though I suppose he could always stay on if expansion slows again).

[fish]

It should be abundantly clear to insiders what makes one team’s development system better than another’s, but to some teams it seems like they are as in the dark to it as the fan outsider. The only thing I can guess at is the concept of having individual hitting plans/pitch development. It’s not just mastering a swing or a pitch, but the plan of how to implement them and playing to your strengths. That’s one thing I haven’t heard out of the Phillies system.

If their development program takes years to start to show the fruits of the changes being implemented it’s because it will still be evolving as the new group tries to figure it out.

[Philsmania]

Padre magic? That organization is pretty dysfunctional as well and most of their largely now passed farm system strength was the result of a one-year massive splurge in the international market.

[andyb]

Padre magic was breaking the rules internationally when that was permitted. That gave them close to a decade of an above average farm system that they could use on trades to better the major league team even if many of those prospects did not pan out.

[zambonir]

What we experience as "magic' is probably never really about any scout or GM or Assistant GM. You are either a well-managed organization or not, and your key people are either good managers or not. Mattingly has almost no experience in development per se, the bet is his basic baseball smarts and leadership ability will enable him to thrive - if the overall organizational culture if also good. In a bad culture good people fail - including our last two major league managers. The Padres may indeed be a shaky culture too but I think that Mattingly hire probably had more to do with the Dodgers/Yankees part.

[andyb]

Keith Law clearly hates the Phillies.

MLB 2022 farm system rankings: Keith Law grades all 30 teams on prospects, with...

Phillies 28th in his rankings. 27th last year. Notes he likes their last two number one picks though as HS pitchers they are the highest risk category. He may be missing the wave of high velocity relievers that will have some impact from middle round picks. I think it is an underrated strength of the system and should have impact late this year and certainly by 2023. If there is baseball of course.

[andyb]

Matt Winkelman starting his top 50 this week too. Today is the "beyond the top 50" set of notes on various players.

Phillies 2022 Top 50 Prospects – Intro and Off the List

[Austinfan]

Brito may never be a prospect again, but a great story, and kudos to the Phillies for going above and beyond.

Halfway home: a Phillies prospect is willing his way back to baseball after a...

[andyb]

Here is the Keith Law list:

Phillies' top 20 prospects for 2022: Keith Law ranks Philadelphia's farm system

[fish]

Here is the Keith Law list:

I think I agree with that ranking quite a bit. Vierling may not be a super exciting prospect, but in terms of who they have and what he showed last year, #4 is not unreasonable to me. He and O'Hoppe are basically at the same prospect ranking for me.

[andyb]

I hope Law and others are right about Vierling. I just see that AAA performance and keep thinking small sample size. I do get that his athletic tools are underrated. Frankly that was why we drafted him as a guy who still had upside after college. The defensive reports are conflicting too as to whether he is a decent CF and there really is not much major league data on that. Law was also encouraging on Garcia.

As for guys he did not like, Jordan Viars is one. And not necessarily because he did not make the top 20 but because we have heard better things about his tools. There is more athleticism and power potential than Law implies I think. He also really does not mention any of the power relief arms we have behind the top 20. I don't think they deserve to rank high (he did rank McGarry), but probably are worthy of mention at the end, either in others of note or in assessing the general system depth.

It is not a bad list and Law probably does not get to see much of prospects beyond the top 20 anyway. That is not a criticism. He just has a pretty large beat to cover.

[zambonir]

I think it's kind of funny that it's become an article of faith with regards to Moniak that he was screwed up by the cult of launch angle, but Law's write-ups of both Vierling and Rojas say they will only be major league starters if they improve in that department. I've always thought that was the risk/reward calculation with Moniak in the first place - that the hitter the Phillies claimed they were drafting still wasn't going to be an above-average regular unless he played elite defense, whereas the hitter they wanted to change him into could have been. And then the defense didn't happen either (Law writes off Mickey as a CF rather quickly, which Girardi also did publicly last year).

[Austinfan]

The two guys he wants to improve their launch angle had an unusual high GB rate, so we're talking line drives instead of GBs, not going to optimal HR swings.

Moniak was a line drive hitter in HS, they tried to turn him into a power hitter.

[Philsmania]

Remember, drafting Moniak was one piece of a larger puzzle. By saving money on him as a lesser 1-1, they supposedly had it to go overbudget on Gowdy and Stobbe. Unfortunately, Gowdy got hurt and Stobbe turned out to be an even bigger bust.

[andyb]

That is true strategically, though they did not really save much money with Moniak. Senzel was the only larger bonus and he was only $100K more if I recall. Every team at the top tries to save money these days so it is not as if the strategy was unique. We had no obvious choice but we ended up choosing poorly even among those available. Gowdy was bad luck, but Stobbe was also a poor choice. Just a failed draft all around given the size of our pool (we did hit on some modest successes like Irvin and Romero).

I don't think we ruined Moniak. We clearly could have developed him a bit better, but he simply did not have the hit tool as advertised and building some power in an outfielder of his size is done all the time. Moniak just was not as good as we thought he would be before the draft.

[andyb]

ESPN top 100. Phillies get 3 and the third one is a bit of a surprise. Stott at 66, Abel at 89, and Johan Rojas at 99. Compares Rojas to Pache but likes his chances a bit more.

Kiley McDaniel's top 100 MLB prospects for 2022

[California_Dreamin]

For all the gnashing of teeth [including mine!] about Phillie Phoibles when it comes to their minor league system and where it stands organizationally [even the most optimistic agrees they are in the 24-25 range] if they had only done two hings differently they likely would be in the 11-13 range. I still can't believe they passed on Watson when he fell to them [likely had a deal with Painter already but still...] and if they had kept Mead. While we can all say that Mead was very early in his career when they moved him I do recall his name being mentioned more than once on this site as a guy who seemed to have that mysterious but very real "hit" gene.

And ever since the Reds traded pitcher Milt Pappas for slugger Frank Robinson, and with apologies to Bunning for Demeter, I have always subscribed to the "don't trade a good hitter for a good pitcher" theory. Pitchers will break your heart waaay more than hitters. And, in essence, drafting Painter instead of Watson was yet another pitcher/hitter example.

Whenever I try and formulate a Phillie top 10 prospect list, I try and throw Watson and Mead in there. Have to admit, Watson comes up #1 and Mead is #5-6.

Ouch!

[bigegypt0417]

Has Rojas been mentioned by anyone else as close to top 100?

[andyb]

He is usually mentioned as everyone's sleeper that might be top 100 next year. Not sure I have seen him on anyone else's top 100 though I am guessing he'd be on a bunch of top 150s if those lists existed (and yes when you get that far down it is almost silly to rank since there are going to be 20 similar players across baseball).

I think there is probably still too much risk in his profile to rank him soundly in a top 100, but the other side of the coin is that he is clearly top 50 material if his hit tool improves some. And he can be a 3-4 WAR player only hitting .250-.270 with his speed and defense so he does not have to hit as much as say Moniak or Haseley to be a regular.

[bigegypt0417]

Let's hope for an improvement of that tool this season...it would be nice for something to break our way!