Phillies Prospect Lists

andyb 2022-01-14 17:10:52 UTC #1181

If someone is a subscriber. One can see the players in the top 14 on the right, but not the order:

andyb 2022-01-14 17:14:40 UTC #1182

That is a mid-line projection of talent. If 50 is average then teams on average have about 5 or 6 players total that meet the definition of big league average (8-9 starters, 2-3 pitchers) at any one time.

Now if a team has a dozen players with 40 or 45 ratings, the odds are they hit on a couple of them. But major league average is a high bar. That is like a 3 WAR player.

Matt_Winkelman 2022-01-14 17:15:29 UTC #1183

1 Abel
2 Painter
3 Stott
4 McGarry
5 Rojas
6 Wilson
7 Garcia
8 O'Hoppe
9 Vierling
10 Muzziotti

The rest fall under prospects on the rise (Baylor, Miller, Lee) or Factors on the Farm so 2022 MLB potential (Crouse, Morales, Pipkin)

andyb 2022-01-14 17:18:25 UTC #1184

Thanks. I think the one new thing on these latest lists is that multiple people believe that Hao Yu Lee can hit. It is very rare that we have a sub-million dollar international signing that makes these lists after the first year in the system (though I guess he was a bit older than most new signees).

Still, at least one pleasant surprise.

andyb 2022-01-14 17:25:31 UTC #1185

Blake Brown - One of the wave of hard throwing relievers coming in a couple of years (more likely 2023 than 2022).

Matt_Winkelman 2022-01-14 17:37:37 UTC #1186

The thing with Lee is that the track record of Taiwanese hitters is really poor which drives the bonus down. He also signed at a time when most teams had spent all of their money. That said he has long been the best hitter for his age group in Taiwan so there is a track record. We also have data on him from the complex both public and private. The sample size is not large but he hit the ball as hard as almost anyone down there and it looks the part too. I think his lack of track record is the only thing keeping him out of the top 10, and think if you put him in the age context of Jordan Viars (who is a couple of months younger) you are really only saying that he is about the equivalent of a 3rd round HS hitter, which really is not that insane a leap.

andyb 2022-01-14 17:45:11 UTC #1187

I guess I am more conditioned to think the Phillies' various Asian prospects will all underperform their bonus (an idea grown from years of overpaying in the market for mediocre talent).

I do worry about Lee's defense, especially at 2B, though I guess the trend now is that range is less important at 2B (the Jeff Kent model) with all the advanced positioning. As long as he has decent hands and can throw, lack of range there is more acceptable. I do love the Viars pick too. Seems a Dylan Cozens type with better baseball athleticism (i.e. not just strong). I always like taking chances on tools with higher picks because we have not had much luck on the lower ceiling players (like Haseley). Even Vierling fits on that toolsy profile as he has always been a good athlete for a corner OF.

Squire 2022-01-14 21:42:41 UTC #1188

Random Comment: I feel much better about the system right now than I did a year ago. I legit expect real improvement at least a half dozen important guys currently in the system.

bkox 2022-01-17 15:27:21 UTC #1189

Prospects1500 puts Johan Rojas as #1 on our top 50:

https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-east/phillies/philadelphia-phillies-top-50-prospects-2022/

Austinfan 2022-01-17 16:55:00 UTC #1190

Some dated material, see Garcia for example: "hasn’t reached AA yet and was over-matched in A ball." That was a year ago, he was fine last season in A ball.

andyb 2022-01-17 17:05:48 UTC #1191

He was OK last season in A ball. Overmatched is too strong a word, but repeating a level 2 years later and then putting up a .780 OPS (in a better offensive park) is not exactly dominating or even fine for a top prospect. His ranking on that list is about right even if the commentary is not perfect. Rojas as number one is also something I can't buy yet though understandably their tiers may be more important than the ranking. I love the high ceiling but also recognize the risk and shortcomings with the hit tool.

Austinfan 2022-01-18 17:07:53 UTC #1192

Garcia was rushed to A ball, he wasn't physically developed. Given time to add strength, he held his own and showed good plate discipline at 20 years old. That's more than fine for a plus defensive SS.

andyb 2022-01-18 19:04:16 UTC #1193

But that does not mean he excelled at Low A. 780 OPS is good, but he was repeating the level and was two years older. Kind of like his 3rd year there in terms of physical development. So while he did well there, he did not do well enough where you would think he is a top prospect. That is why his ranking dropped. He is still a prospect. Just not a great one any more. The writeup is correct in saying he still has not reached AA. Not even sure if he will start there next year either as he only had a little time in High A.

Garcia's year was interesting. Mostly because of the late power he showed. See splits below:

August at Clearwater is where his power exploded. Notice the BB/K ratio though. Much worse than earlier in the year. This is because they recalibrated the robo umps and after July 20th it was a tougher strike zone for hitters. Now August was his best month, but I also submit that we know little about his strike zone judgement from last year because of the robo umps which upset all the stats.

bigegypt0417 2022-01-18 19:32:36 UTC #1194

Can I ask why you focus on only one stat in order to make an argument about Garcia? His first go-around he was very young for the level he played. Garcia was 18 in A the first time and was clearly not ready for that level of competition.

Garcia's numbers are pretty solid in the league he played...even finished in the top 10 in HR's.

Did he excel? Probably not

But he definitely took a few steps forward and was still among the youngest in the league.

andyb 2022-01-18 20:18:47 UTC #1195

In what place did I focus on any one stat? Read the thread. The comment was in reaction to that Prospects1500 comment about him not reaching AA (true) and being overmatched (probably not true any more). But the thrust of it was that his ranking around #10 in the system is about right (in a below average system). He did not put up numbers that suggest he is near a top 100 prospect like his GCL year might have alluded to.

In his age 20 season JP Crawford put up a 900+ OPS in High A and 761 in AA. So he was more than a year/level ahead of Garcia AND he was much better at those levels if you want to throw out the year. I have said the Phillies should protect him from the rule 5 because he is a decent prospect (and they did).

Just not sure where you read anywhere that I focus on any one thing. I like him as a prospect. The number 10 ranking is about right. If you disagree with that, let us know why. I am just trying to evaluate him where he is relative to other good SS prospects.

Austinfan 2022-01-19 04:21:51 UTC #1196

Crawford didn't have to go through the nonsense of the last two years, so it's not strictly comparable.

Like I've said, all evaluations off the last two years have to be taken with a grain of salt, if the pandemic finally burns out before spring, we'll get a much better read on players this season.

For one thing, we don't even know who was infected and how badly, but odds are the majority of prospects had COVID at least once.

Squire 2022-01-19 14:12:50 UTC #1197

BA Top 100 is Out

51 Mick Abel
67 Bryson Stott

allentown 2022-01-19 14:17:35 UTC #1198

Well, yes and no. His development was interrupted, but so was the development of the pitchers he faced. Almost everyone was roughly equally penalized. A guy like Yhoswar is a special case.

The optimists here tend to give a pass to both our pitchers and hitters because of Covid, while not considering that the opposition was equally harmed.

bigegypt0417 2022-01-19 14:44:25 UTC #1199

I'm not really sure the point is that is hasn't equally harmed most prospects...the point is that the last two years have been extremely challenging from a development standpoint.

To compare his to players who did not go through it isn't exactly an apples to apples comparison.

andyb 2022-01-19 15:34:14 UTC #1200

It is still fair to compare a prospect to his current peers though. Luis Garcia was the top prospect in the GCL in 2018 and in the top 5 of most Phillies rankings after that year. After his tough 2019 year he was still in the middle of our top 10 (5th for Matt Winkelman) as everybody conceded that the defense was there and the offense needed time.

Now we have had some time and see the offense as good but not great. Many prospects skipped a level when they came back. Garcia didn't. He was clearly better, but he should have been better repeating Low A being 2 years older than the last time and going to a better offensive park (Clearwater vs Lakewood). Rankings have him in the 8-10 range now and that feels right to me. He has slipped in how he is seen as a prospect relative to his peers. This does not mean he is not a prospect. It just means his ranking relative to the industry and his peers has dropped at this time based upon what we know. If he had put up an 850 OPS in Clearwater and then advanced to Jersey Shore a month earlier and put up at least a 750 OPS then we'd probably have him near Rojas in the rankings. But he didn't. He was good but not great. Still has a chance to be a major league regular but maybe we are talking more Galvis level as his ceiling as opposed to Crawford level in overall value (not style of play).

The purpose of rankings is to rank players and explain why. Just not sure why missing a year would be a reason to elevate Garcia more than any other prospect that did not go to the 2020 minor league development camp.