Phillies Prospect Lists

zambonir 2021-12-27 22:06:08 UTC #1161

I thought this article did make the case that the Phillies could have stuck with Maton or Williams instead of being so in love with Torreyes though.

Austinfan 2021-12-27 22:42:57 UTC #1162

Cheap depth matters, when you can get solid seson out of players like Brogdon, it can save you $3-5M on a veteran RP who often turns out to be replacement level (as we've discovered to our chagrin the last few years).

If Vierling can be a solid platoon LF, it gives you more options, if Maton or Williams can be backup IFs who can play above replacement level for 200-300 PA, and so on. They don't have to become superstars to have real value, a WAR here and a WAR there and the cumulative impact can be substantial.

andyb 2021-12-27 23:03:39 UTC #1163

You still seem to think that any negative criticism of your post means we/I don't like cheap depth. Of course we do. I think it is great to have Maton contribute over a AAAA older prospect.

What you miss is that these prospects rarely move the needle (even Brogdon). Teams need above average players to produce 2-4 WAR seasons for modest dollars. Stott could do that. Luis Garcia is more of a longshot to do that but has a chance. Maton likely does not.

The Matons of the world are nice to have, but by definition they are replaceable by replacement level players.

zambonir 2021-12-27 23:09:53 UTC #1164

Veteran depth is also pretty cheap. Torreyes and David Hale only made $800K. Cam Bedrosian was paid the same as Brogdon. You start paying $2-4 million for bench players or relievers and you get Brad Miller and Ian Kennedy. Yeah, you also get guys like that who fail (Matt Moore, for instance) but the same goes for the AAAA types and non-prospects.

Austinfan 2021-12-27 23:25:29 UTC #1165

Garcia's upside is probably higher than Stott, though his probability of reaching it is lower.

Garcia is a plus fielding SS who can stay there throughout his 20s, and that has a lot of value - top fielding SSs who put up .700 OPS are 3-4 WAR players, and given his batting eye, a .350-.400 OPB is not out of the question, so he just needs to add enough strength to approach .100 ISO power.

Williams is interesting, 3rd rd pick based on athleticism (i.e., high ceiling/low P of getting there), so there's probably some more upside left. Maton got rushed, should have started in AA and finished in AAA ball last year. Vierling is simply an unknown, great bat velocity but contact?

Question is how good of a read do we have on any prospect given the last two seasons and how it messed with player development, then through in the state of the Phillies development process.

andyb 2021-12-27 23:33:55 UTC #1166

Before the season I might have agreed that Garcia had a higher upside than Stott. Not now though. Stott has shown advanced strike zone recognition and power at upper minor league levels. While Garcia has more defensive upside I think the gap on offense is much wider now. Stott could be a really good hitter for a middle infielder. I just don't see Garcia doing anything close to that offensively.

Squire 2022-01-07 15:13:43 UTC #1167

I don't know if this is behind a paywall or not but here is the BA Phillies Top 10 Podcast

fish 2022-01-07 19:18:12 UTC #1168

Kind of "blah" in entertainment value, mostly because the Phillies system is that way. I got the sense that most of it was reporting how the Phillies feel about their guys, and not necessarily an independent evaluation. I suppose the most interesting mentions were Jordan Viars, Micah Ottenbright, Christian McGowen and Ricky Perez. The most independent evaluation was on OHoppe and how impressed they were with his growth, ability, and leadership.

-Viars averaged exit velo over 90 mph in instructs, with multiple 100+
-Ottenbright super projectable and hitting 95 mph with his curve spin up to 3,000 rpm in instructs
-McGowen with fastball up to 97 mph and good curve and slider (prior to the draft many viewed him as a reliever, but Phils like him as a starter)
-Perez a good looking hitter in the Dominican (hit over defense), will have to watch his size to stay at catcher.

Unless i missed it, I was surprised no mention of Griff McGarry. Consistency aside, he has the stuff to get to Reading and be a guy to get excited about. The kind of guy the Dodgers seem to develop out of the blue every year.

andyb 2022-01-07 20:04:58 UTC #1169

Fangraphs list coming next week from a comment in their chat today.

As promised, the new Fangraphs list:

bkox 2022-01-12 15:46:37 UTC #1170

Símon Muzziotti at #19... Is that low? Seems a lot of talk about him being the CF of the future but thats only 3 spots above Moniak..

And Vierling at #5.. is that high?

andyb 2022-01-12 16:51:51 UTC #1171

I will say this is the most in depth scouting-focused write up out there. If they like Vierling that is a positive sign that the industry thinks he has made significant jumps (though they do still see him as a complementary role player). Hao Yu Lee at 12 is pretty aggressive also, especially since they are unsure about his defense. Sounds like a good bat that got downgraded when he had injury issues (back) the year before he was signed.

The highlights to me in terms of potential breakouts are Rojas, O'Hoppe, and in several years Ottenbright. Less love for the younger Latin American pitchers unfortunately. I think they really like Stott too from the comments. Really seems like they think he will be the starting SS by mid-season.

Squire 2022-01-12 19:35:55 UTC #1172

Interesting comment that the Phillies were close to a trade pre-lockout but backed away when they decided they didn't want to include Vierling.

allentown 2022-01-12 21:58:51 UTC #1173

What struck me was Yhoswar Garcia at #26 and the beneath lukewarm writeup and quantification of his skills. They politely didn't come right out and say the Phillies voluntarily screwed themselves sticking with the original bonus $ after he cheated on his age. Two lost seasons and they seem to expect a rather quick crash and burn. I think this is the lowest I've seen him ranked, but they share my extreme skepticism.

My next biggest surprise was McGowan and catcher Perez missing the top 41, although they seem to like Perez as #42 or so.

allentown 2022-01-12 22:01:27 UTC #1174

I think a bit of a downgrade on Muzziotti because, historically, we've done an awful job at signing and developing CF-types of this profile. I have no problem with only 3 spots above Moniak, thinking they are both under-rated by about 5 slots in our weak farm system.

andyb 2022-01-12 22:17:14 UTC #1175

Not playing for 2 years essentially would downgrade any prospect. Muzziotti should have been in AA in 2020 and AAA in 2021 and now he probably goes back to Reading to start 2022.

The comment on Yhoswar Garcia was kind of scattershot. I wonder if they did not even get to see him. They say he has no strength but then his raw power grade is 50/60. The ranking seems more out of lack of information (and a little recognition of the age controversy) than it does out of talent. I think most consider him a very good CF, potentially better than Rojas. He does not have Muzziotti's hit tool yet, but he is 3 years younger and has barely played so it is really hard to assess his progress there.

Austinfan 2022-01-13 03:15:33 UTC #1176

Given the last two years, I'd take any evaluation with a grain of salt.

Hopefully, prospects will be able to have a real spring training and a full season this year - in that case, look for surprises as players with limited PT but two years of physical maturity make major jumps.

Muzziotti is a good example, he's missed a lot of PT, a problem was lack of power, but two years old, who knows? Maybe he shows up with legitimate gap power and jumps 2-3 levels in one year.

Normally, a minor league player gets 400-500 PA to work through issues over a season, that's been lacking for most of these kids. I'd have my scouts draw up a list of "disappointments" in other farm systems who might be flying under the radar and see if you can pry some away for cheap. There may be a number of players who will be coming up for Rule 5 exposure who haven't had the PA/IP to properly develop and can be had for a song.

fish 2022-01-13 15:34:09 UTC #1177

For me it was Lee at #12. He 'looked' like a potentially good offensive player based on his amateur video, and apparently he made the same impression as a pro. He sounds like a hardnose competitor type that endears themselves to Phillies fans too.

allentown 2022-01-13 15:50:04 UTC #1178

Yes, I'm also more enthusiastic about Lee than they are. What I've read and seen (small clips) of him has been very positive and that is extremely rare for a Phillies' signee from Asia. I don't see their ranking at #12 as out of line, but was surprised that they think he will have to move off 2B and barely has a chance to become a starter (presumably at 3B, where he would need more power and hitting in general). In general, they aren't super high on our prospects, once you get beyond the top 3-5.

andyb 2022-01-13 15:59:00 UTC #1179

Matt Winkelman with a compilation of prospect rankings:

Some I have never heard of like Prospects 361 (do they take 4 days off a year?). Welcome to the prospect rankings William Bergolla!
https://prospect361.com/nl-team-prospects/philadelphia-phillies/#Abel

Aquapong 2022-01-14 01:07:52 UTC #1180

I thought a 50 value was supposed to be an average starting player? I’m kind of disappointed with the overall ratings of Garcia, Painter, and Muzziotti.