Phillies Prospect Lists

[fish]

I wonder if Gowdy wasn't a bigger gamble than we realized at the time. He pitched 9 IP, before ending his draft-year season and then missed the next two seasons. Was he injured when we signed him?

He was 160 lbs when they signed him. Thats was a lot of the problem in 2016 and earlier. They went after guys in the heart of opportunity in the rebuild that had awful projectability. Moniak and Gowdy had very little physical projection while Ortiz had a pear shape body as a 16 year old.

The Phils approach seems to have changed since then, it just hurts twice as bad to make those mistakes when you have early pick and money to spend.

[zambonir]

I also really feel like in 2016 Klentak thought what the team already had in hand (both pitchers and hitters, most of them acquired in trade rather than drafted) was stronger than it turned out to be, and Gillick and Almaraz and Amaro's scouts (and maybe even Jordan) probably gave him that impression. So they went high school 1-4 (Romero was only barely a college player), thinking it was Year 2 of the rebuild and the classes of 2014 and 2015 (but more so the trade guys) would help in the meantime (and several important players from those two years have, to be fair).

A year later, big change in philosophy, but also probably a realization that they needed guys to be closer to the majors, and indeed, our current starting CF and presumptive mid-season rotation upgrade came out of 2017.

[Taudawg]

This goes in the hindsight is 20/20 category. Most of the national media thought the Moniak/Gowdy strategy was sound -

Draft: Pick-by-pick, first-round analysis

MLB draft winners, losers after day one

MLB Draft grades: Yankees spoon up big success, Miami dades a graft reach

2016 MLB First-Year Player Draft: First-round complete results

Baseball America gave our draft a B+

Most teams whiffed on the 2016 draft.

[andyb]

Given Moniak is 21 and Senzel is 24, you have to figure Moniak has more upside (and risk).
If Moniak had gone to college, last year would have been his junior season and when he was drafted.
Instead he was putting up solid numbers in AA ball.

This is why you can't look at age and see it as the same for HS and college players.
While Moniak isn't 3 years behind in development, he's still 1-2 years behind.

Senzel has a much better hit tool than Moniak and if he had stayed healthy while being allowed to play his natural defensive position he might be an All Star soon. We have yet to see if Moniak is more than a 4th OF. Tools matter. His hit tool is average at best. He does not have that much power, especially if the defense is not great in CF (which is an unknown at the moment). His speed is also not much above average these days.

Puk also looks to be a top starter and he was clearly in the mix for the Phillies' pick. I know you have to defend Moniak at every turn, and I do still root for him, but one can also acknowledge that the evidence so far is that the pick (and what the Phillies did with the money savings) has been a colossal failure. It may have been a mediocre top of the draft, but we still chose wrong.

If Moniak is such a great prospect and young for AAA (which he is), why does nobody rank him in their top 100 prospects (or top 300 for that matter)?

[andyb]

Baseball America gave our draft a B+

Most teams whiffed on the 2016 draft.

I liked the strategy too at the time of the draft and was OK with the Moniak pick (though I wavered on liking Senzel too). What people thought in 2016 is meaningless though. If BA regraded the draft now I doubt it would get better than a C, and much of that might be because of Irvin and Romero.

[nycphils]

I wanted Senzel or Puk, and although the strategy was sound but the scouting ended up poor and/or unlucky. Thankfully, I’m not paid to have my scouting judgement counted on...but Almaraz and Klentak were. This draft was a disaster any way you cut it.

[Philsmania]

It does feel as though the pharm is at its lowest ebb since the early '90's. Not as bad as the absolute rock bottom of the late '80's, but pretty much where we were in '92-'93 when after four years of supposed rebuilding, we still had a weak system.

[zambonir]

I remember when we took Moniak some people were underwhelmed with the Steve Finley comp, since the 1-1 makes you dream on a repeated all-star and possible MVP candidate. That would be a pretty high ceiling for him now.

I was kind of enamored with the high risk/reward of Groome myself. He could still end up being an All-Star or a bust.

We've also been acting like the 2009-2011 team (trading for Realmuto - and to a lesser extent, Segura - and signing comp pick free agents) without actually having either the success or the depth of that era.

[Squire]

Speaking of Moniak….

https://twitter.com/JackFritzWIP/status/1226595254868041729

[allentown]

There's likely plus and minus here. He was, IMHO, a marginal CF and bulking up probably makes him a corner OF. He will need more bat as a corner OF.

[zambonir]

If he's training correctly there's no reason it can't make him a faster (or at least more explosive) fielder. Extreme example, but Trout was 6'2" 190 when he was drafted, listed at 235 now. A lot of it is mental (or at least, vision and ability to read balls) too.

If he can actually turn into a hitter it won't matter either way. He's either good enough to play a corner or they won't care if his CF defense isn't as good.

I feel like there's still a good chance one of Haseley/Moniak isn't in the system on August 1 but they both need to have pretty good seasons to have greater trade value, as well as to make it hard for the Phillies to consider trading.

[Austinfan]

He's still 21, it's natural for players to add significant muscle between 18 and 21, which is why it's much harder to project HS players than college juniors (21-22) and even harder to project 15 year LA players.

Bulking up can slow you down or add speed, depends on genetics and how you bulk up - if you add upper body strength you can add power but slow down, if you physical mature in a balanced fashion you can add leg strength relative to body mass and be a faster player - you see that in football players all the time.

If Moniak has excellent eye to hand coordination and vision to pick up spin, his struggles may have been due to a change in mechanics from a slap hitter to driving the ball, to take advantage of added strength as he matures. If he doesn't have those skills, he never should have been a 1st rd pick.

[andyb]

We have seen this bulked up observation every year for Moniak. I think to hit for any power he would also need to revamp his swing, which might reduce his average and/or walk rate. Whenever the Phillies try to do this, he seems to go into a slump and only break out of it when he starts using his high school swing again.

[allentown]

Moniak's power last season was ok. He had 52 extra-base hits, including 11 HRs, in only 465 AB. His big problem is the hit tool. He had only a .303 OBP last season and that matches his minor league career OBP. Last season's ISO was a very respectable .187, quite a bit better than he has managed in prior years.

[zambonir]

I don't think Moniak ever actually went back to his high school swing per se. In any case, the minor league instruction team has changed completely since then. This is Year 3 of the Driveline guy being in charge so it seems like he has helped, and I'm sure they still see him as a work-in-progress...and want him to hit for power.

[mdougherty12]

Moniak has steadily increased his line drive rate and fly ball rate in each of his minor league seasons. He’s improved his batted ball profile, but he doesn’t walk at all, and he’s not particularly good at making contact.

[phillychuck]

I've always been surprised at Moniak's lack of walks. He was a patient hitter in high school and on the circuit with the other high-level players at that age. It would be great if he could increase his walk percentage to at least 7.5% or 8% of his ABs (note he moved up from 5% to 6.5% last season). That would push his OBP into the useful range. I don't know if he's swinging out-of-zone on breaking balls or chasing too many close pitches overall, but I'm sure the coaches have an idea what's up.

Interestingly, Josh Stephen (admittedly a personal favorite going back to his GCL days) had an awesome year that would have made us crazy Moniak fans if he had posted it. He was 40% above league average offensively according to wRC+, which is park adjusted. Moniak was only 15% above league average. The biggest difference between the two is walks, where Stephen was at 10% of ABs. Also, Stephen is primarily a LF now, where Moniak is still mainly in CF. Finally, Moniak had a much larger home/road split than Stephen, but Stephen was very bad vs. lefties, whereas Moniak was pretty even vs righties and lefties.

Teach Stephen to hit better vs. lefties, and Moniak to have an actual platoon advantage and you have two pretty good OF prospects.

(Note-Stephen had a 940 OPS post-all-star break. Either he really adjusted to the league or he had a prolonged lucky hot streak. Moniak, as usual, tailed off at the end of the year, posting his best month in June.)

[Dirk41]

Just comparing his swing to Haseley, it seems stiff and slow. Which would be in line with bulking up

[phillychuck]

His swing is quicker than anyone else in that video. Are you looking at the right guy?

[bigegypt0417]

There's likely plus and minus here. He was, IMHO, a marginal CF and bulking up probably makes him a corner OF. He will need more bat as a corner OF.

Why would him being strong immediately mean he's slower?